The NBA Draft will take place Thursday, June 23rd at 8:00 PM Eastern.
Draft Week is finally here! There are several different ways to find profitable angles against the book leading up to the 2022 NBA Draft, and the lines are constantly changing by the hour. In this guide I have write-ups for what I have placed that is still in play, as well as some of the plays I have tweeted out over this past week. If you missed out, it is still not too late to get in on the action. Check out what I will be adding to my card over the next two days at @AndyHHSports on Twitter.
Keegan Murray and Jaden Ivey at #4 Overall and #5 Overall
Over the past 72 hours, we have seen Jabari Smith’s odds at #1 fluctuate from the -300 range to the high -100s and back. Any slight rumor from a decently reputable source that finds its way to Twitter has altered the odds for the Top 3 picks in the draft. I won’t be playing anything until the night of the draft, but I do think as the odds fluctuate there is an opportunity to snag profit by betting multiple choices at +200 or +300 as the lines move.
One line that has steadily decreased is Keegan Murray to go #4 to the Sacramento Kings. Jaden Ivey has been favored to go #4 since the betting odds were released, and this is the logical move to make as he is highly regarded as the best prospect outside of the Top 3, with some arguing he has as much upside as those guys at the top. The problem with taking Jaden Ivey to go #4 is that the Kings traded away Tyrese Haliburton at the trade deadline this year, signaling they are good to go with De’Aaron Fox and Davion Mitchell as their guards.
Keegan Murray has picked up steam as the candidate to go #4 because of how well he fits on this Sacramento roster, the Kings making it seem like they are good to go at guard, and management’s shaky history of not drafting the best available player over the past decade or more. Keegan is still a phenomenal player who can score the ball and provide spacing for Sabonis and Fox. You can check out my full analysis on Keegan in my Mock Draft 2.0, but for the purpose of the betting guide, all signs are pointing to Keegan Murray heading to Sacramento at #4.
Unfortunately, this line has now moved from the +375 I tweeted out and is now at +115 as it stands Tuesday evening. I would still play this for half a unit to a unit, but the value is still there on Jaden Ivey going #5 to Detroit. If the Kings take Murray at #4, there is no way Detroit passes up the number one available prospect left on the draft board and the future pairing in their backcourt with Cade Cunningham. Ivey is listed at +200 to go #5 overall tonight, down a tad from the +250 I tweeted out but still offering a great value play two nights before the draft.
– Keegan Murray to go #4 Overall +115 – 0.5u to 1u
– Jaden Ivey to go #5 Overall +200 – 0.5u to 1u
Jeremy Sochan to land in the Top 12 or Top 10
After watching the NBA Playoffs it is clear that teams would kill for versatile and lengthy wings and forwards who can defend and shoot from behind the arc. The past few NBA Drafts have also shown us their value, as many teams have reached for these types of players due to how hard they are to find. Jeremy Sochan fits this build to a tee, and although he is still working on developing consistent scoring, the rest of his game is there and ready to perform with strong rebounding and defense.
The Blazers, Pacers, Wizards, and Pelicans all finished in the bottom 10 teams for defensive efficiency last season. Some of the teams above them in the draft are also on this list, but Sochan will not be able to compete for a Top 5 spot. There are plenty of teams that are dying for defense, and Sochan fixes a lot for them right away.
The value to go in the Top 12 is great, with the line sitting at over under 12 juiced to the under. There is also plus money value at Top 10, with all those teams I listed sitting there as the draft order stands today. I think both plays are worth looking at, but under 12 for Sochan is my most confident play of this 2022 NBA Draft. Some books are moving this line quickly, so I would jump on it while it is still affordable!
– Jeremy Sochan Draft Position under 12 -140 – 2 Units
– Jeremy Sochan to go in the Top 10 +200 – 0.5 Units
Shaedon Sharpe to slide on Draft Night
Shaedon Sharpe has stated on multiple occasions that he aspires to be one of the best to ever play the game of basketball. These are lofty goals for the recently-turned 19-year-old who skipped out on his freshman year at Kentucky to “better prepare for next season.” Yes, there were some stipulations that held him up from playing for Kentucky as he reclassified, but it does not change the fact that Sharpe has not played in a competitive basketball game since he was in high school.
Sharpe looked like a phenomenal scorer his final season in high school, but often times it seemed like he threw the blinders on and it took volume to get his numbers up. He was selective with where he has showcased his skills during the draft process, maintaining himself as one of the biggest mysteries we have seen in recent draft memory. I have a bad feeling for Sharpe that this is not going to bode well with scouts and general managers alike. There can be cases made for taking risks in the NBA Draft, and oftentimes risks can pay off over due time and development resources. But Sharpe’s negative attitude in press interviews, lack of availability at the Combine, and inability to explain why he has purposely become the mystery man makes me believe he will slide Thursday night.
Meanwhile, guys like Dyson Daniels and Bennedict Mathurin have increased their draft stock over the past two months, showing skills and hard work that NBA teams are buzzing about. With the Top 5 likely hashed out as I detailed above, and Daniels and Mathurin gaining legitimate steam towards the top prospects after the Top 5, I just do not see how Shaedon Sharpe makes sense for a lot of these teams when there are a number of proven prospects who could end up being better than Sharpe. I wish all the best for the kid, but hopefully he can land in a spot where he gets an attitude check and solid development… just outside of the Top 8 picks.
Shaedon Sharpe Draft Position over 8 EVEN – 1.5 Units
THIS IS AN ARTICLE WRITTEN BY ANDY CHASE
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