2023 NFL Division Preview: AFC North Predictions and Futures to Bet Right Now

This is an article written by DJ Bianco

DJ Bianco Author for Happy Hour Sports at the Colosseum in Rome

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SUPER BOWL BEST BETS AND ANALYSIS: Chiefs or 49ers?

Super Bowl Sunday is here! After an incredible season, we have the most anticipated game in the United States in front of us. First off, I would like to thank every reader who has come to the website and shown any type of support to us - it means a lot. We have some...

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AFC North
Each breakdown here on happyhoursports.net will include discussions on the major changes for the teams being analyzed as well as the best bets to make right now in regards to those changes. Betting futures in the NFL can be very profitable, especially if the proper amount of analysis is input.

For this episode and article we shift our focus to the AFC North. A division that a lot of people are excited for with the emergence of Joe Burrow and the Bengals as well as Lamar with the Ravens. Year after year this is a division where people pick Super Bowl Winners from and since 2013, they have come short. They still battle each other hard each year, but can one break off and get it done again? Only time will tell, and I am excited to see it come to fruition.

AFC North Betting Lines:
per FanDuel
To Win Super Bowl: Cincinnati Bengals +1000 | Baltimore Ravens +1800 | Cleveland Browns +2800 | Pittsburgh Steelers +4500
Win Totals: Cincinnati Bengals 11.5, -134 | Baltimore Ravens 10.5, -102 | Cleveland Browns 9.5, +108 | Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5, -150
To Win Division: Cincinnati Bengals +130 | Baltimore Ravens +250 | Cleveland Browns +470 | Pittsburgh Steelers +470
To Make Playoffs: Cincinnati Bengals -310 | Baltimore Ravens -150 | Cleveland Browns +104 | Pittsburgh Steelers +146
To NOT Make Playoffs: Cincinnati Bengals +235 | Baltimore Ravens +122 | Cleveland Browns -130 | Pittsburgh Steelers -180
Public Perceptions in the NFL and How it Impacts Our Bets
The NFL offseason shrinks and shrinks with every coming day, and that means I am BACK to bring you the newest and most unique betting information to prepare us for this 2023 season. Over the rest of this offseason, Andy and I intend to detail and analyze the updates to each division and what we think will happen to gear you up for the season. Along with that, we provide the best bets in our opinion to bet right now because we are all here to beat the books. In these breakdowns we are placing a heavy focus on how we believe the public perceives each team in the NFL. Understanding this crucial factor, as we know from “Sharpen the Public” data last year, can really set us apart in the gambling world.
If we can understand how the general betting public understands teams, we can enter the minds of the oddsmakers when they make lines once the season starts and thus be ahead of the general bettors that Vegas makes most of their money on.
Cleveland Browns 2023 Preview and Best Futures
Written by Andy

The public could not get a grasp on the Browns last season with a 1-5 record against the spread betting on the Browns, a record that you would think Deshaun Watson achieved last year in his six games played. However, Watson and company mustered up a 3-3 record with the same .500 mark against the spread and will look to build on that heading into the 2023 season. Watson is one of the biggest question marks heading into the new campaign, but Cleveland’s defense led by new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz along with tough AFC competition vying for those final wild card spots could result in a difficult season for the Browns.

One of the most interesting parts of last season for Cleveland from a betting perspective was how the Browns fared against the total. Without Deshaun, this team went 7-3-1 to the over before finishing the season 5-1 to the under upon Watson’s return to action. Is this a trend we can bank on continuing next season if Deshaun continues to play at a below-average level? The defense certainly stepped up in those final games of the 2022 season, allowing a very impressive 15.83 points per game in the last six games. Can the addition of Jim Schwartz as defensive coordinator keep this group rolling?

Something that really caught my eye during the season last year was the Brown’s Margin of Victory stayed around the +1 to -1 range all season, ending at -1.2. In those final six games when they lost outright or won outright the spread was covered or missed outright too, meaning if you liked this team on the moneyline you may as well have just taken spread as a favorite. Finally, the best ATS trends I could find for this squad was that they were 6-3 after a loss, and went 4-2 ATS in their divisional games which I feel is not talked about hardly at all by anyone when discussing this group.

We know that the Browns defense boasted huge size and talent, but this team struggled to make stops when it counted until later on in the season, as seen on the field and in the 5-1 Under record in those final 6 games with DeShaun. This unit lost Jadeveon Clowney but acquired Dalvin Tomlinson and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo who should help bolster that defensive line unit. I could talk about all the moves the Browns made to reinforce their 19th-ranked defensive efficiency group, but I think adding Jim Schwartz at DC will help give guidance from a longtime defensive mind in the NFL to a team that lacked it last season. We know what we are going to get out of Myles Garrett, but this season will be defined by how well the rest of the unit responds after having a solid end to the year.

Deshaun Watson looked anything but himself in his return to action at the end of last season. His 58.2% completion percentage was the lowest we have ever seen from him, and I expect that to improve this year with more time, less focus on him, and more weapons to throw to. There are a lot of claims that Watson was rusty last season, and I get that, but it’s not like he was out injured. He simply hadn’t played football on an NFL field in almost two years by the time he returned.

The Browns brought in Elijah Moore and Marquise Goodwin while adding Cedric Tillman in the draft at receiver. They did lose Kareem Hunt, but Nick Chubb has proven more than capable of carrying the bulk of responsibility at running back. Finally, this unit has the #2 offensive line in the league according to Pro Football Focus, one spot behind the #1 ranked Eagles. There really is no excuse for Watson if he has a poor season once again, and the Browns will be staring an all-time mistake dead in the eyes.

I think the problem for Cleveland is how tough the AFC is, as well as their division. On the other hand, this team had a subpar season but went 3-3 in the division. If Cleveland is somehow able to snag one more divisional win, they’re teeing themselves up really nicely to sit in playoff contention. I believe a fully healthy Ravens squad paired with how good we know the Bengals will be is a major threat to the Browns success, and with only 7 playoff spots does this defense have the consistency and skill to squeak into a 6th or 7th playoff spot when you look at the AFC West and AFC East’s talent levels? I believe those two divisions have a better chance of two of their teams making it than three teams from the AFC North qualifying for the playoffs.

However, it is very well documented that I have a Browns to win the Super Bowl future at +3,500 from the week after the Super Bowl finished this year. I feel like I have properly highlighted the risks of Watson, the defensive consistency, and a rough AFC North and conference as a whole. But what happens if everything clicks? The roster when healthy and when firing on all cylinders has the makings and depth of a deep playoff run, there is no doubt about that. I feel like this team is worth taking fliers on where you can find them, but at the end of the day, we are still talking about the Cleveland Browns here.

The Browns win total this season is set at 9.5 juiced to the under at -135. The Browns division win total is set at 2.5 but heavily juiced to the over at -250. I cannot justify making a play on either of these markets.

Cleveland to make the Playoffs is at +120 on DraftKings which was the best value I could find, with not to make the playoffs at -130 on FanDuel but closer to -140 and -150 elsewhere. I would also prefer to sit out on this market, as the Browns will be right there on the cusp of making the playoffs and there is not enough value one way or the other here. Finally, the Browns are +450 to win the division which is too tall of a task to justify taking, coming from the guy with a Super Bowl ticket on them.

Nobody knows what is about to happen with this team and that is the most factual thing I can say about this squad right now. There is a world where this team is one of the best offenses in the league and the defense pans out under Schwartz. There is just as much of a chance that Watson still is below average and the defense looks like the first half of 2022 unit.

The Browns are +2.5 hosting the Bengals at home in Week 1, which I absolutely love as a teaser leg, and may even take on the moneyline at +140 when the time comes because I think this line is a massive trap. 91% of the bets are on the Bengals right now and this line has just sat at -2.5 with Vegas thrilled to hold this position apparently. We will come back to that Week 1 line as the markets continue to develop, as there is no way this spread moves unless we get some reverse line movement to further confirm it is a trap.

My Underdog play of the podcast is Deshaun Watson to go LOWER than 11.5 interceptions this season. Watson has only gone above this mark once in his career, although he only played in 7 games for 8 interceptions during his rookie season and threw 5 in 6 games last season. I don’t know if we will see the Deshaun Watson of old this season or not. What I do know is that he will have one of the best offensive lines in football to give him enough time to make decisions, as well as more receiving options than were available to him last season. David Njoku and Amari Cooper are still on this roster, and you’ve got time to consider running the ball as well as Nick Chubb there to support. I think 11.5 is a really high line for someone we know has the potential to be a top quarterback, and if this play misses then there is a big chance the Browns have a lot more problems ahead than just Watson throwing picks.

Best Bets:
Browns to win the Super Bowl at +3,500 (Ranges from +2,400 to +4,000 depending on your Sportsbook)
Deshaun Watson LOWER than 11.5 INTs on Underdog Fantasy (1u)
Pittsburgh Steelers 2023 Preview and Best Futures

Written by Deej

We enter another Steelers year without Ben Roethlisberger; yet with Matt Canada remaining as the offensive coordinator, I am sure all Steelers fans weep as they read this sentence. The major questions in Pittsburgh are will Kenny Pickett take that next step, will Matt Canada improve the offensive coordination, and can TJ Watt stay healthy? Positive answers to this question and we have a top tier team on our hands, but on the other side who knows what could happen – let’s find out.

After finishing the 2022 season with a 9-8 record, the Steelers missed out on the playoffs by a slim margin tiebreaker to the Miami Dolphins. Now, with a full offseason in the books, Pittsburgh looks ahead to an improved Kenny Pickett and healthy team.

I think a major factor to the success of the Steelers is TJ Watt. Without him last year they started the season 2-6 and were struggling, but when he plays they turn into a top 10 defense. Yes, generally speaking the rest of the team improved throughout the year, but TJ was integral. Without him they allowed 389.9 yards per game and 25.3 points per game, but with him those numbers dropped to 289.9 and 17, respectively. I’d argue keeping him healthy this year and surrounding him with more depth will yield more success from the Steelers this year than anything Kenny Pickett and Matt Canada can bring.

Speaking of improving the defense around him, the Pittsburgh front office did just that. After a relatively mediocre season from the inside linebacker corps of Myles Jack, Devin Bush, and Robert Spillane recording zero turnovers or sacks; Pittsburgh turned over the whole lot of them into Cole Holcomb, Elandon Roberts, and Tanner Muse. No, they are not game breaking names, but they have the possibility of becoming that in this defense led by my defensive player of the year TJ Watt. Additionally, the draft was helpful as they added Joey Porter Jr out of Penn State, and their major move of adding an aging Patrick Peterson should round out the secondary with the likes of Minkah Fitzpatrick. I see the floor of this team being very high, with a possible ceiling averaging less than 20 points allowed per game.

On the offensive side of the ball, let’s focus on the supporting cast before we get to Kenny or Matt Canada. This offense has weapons there is no doubt about it, including beefing up the corps of Diontae Johnson and George Pickens with Allen Robinson. I see a lot of improvement coming from the WRs as George Pickens is only entering his second year and there is no way Johnson goes the whole year without a tuddy again (setting a record last year with 86 receptions and no TDs).

On the offensive line, the Steelers added Broderick Jones from Georgia in the draft and I expect him to have an instant impact. Last year, the two tackles of the Steelers were ranked 30th or worse by PFF, yet, they still had the 7th best blocking efficiency. They also picked up Eagles backups Isaac Saumalo and Nate Herbig who should add some much needed depth to the line. Ideally these additions will also build up their run game, because I really believe in Najee Harris. The Steelers ranked in the bottom ten for RBs last year in yards per carry and 20+ yard rushes, and they are losing Benny Snell in 2023. Something needs to improve here, but it seems like the front office is putting their money into the right places (at least as much as they can)

Now, the major questions for the Steelers. What will the year 2 step look like for Kenny Pickett? The short answer is, it is impossible to know. However, that would not make for any fun discussions or article. I think the answer actually lies in a lot of his numbers last year, in addition to the offense he plays in. Looking into 2022, Pickett played 5 games before the Bye and 7 games after it. Before the bye the Steelers ranked as the worst team in PPG, 28th team in YPG, 25th team in Rush YPG, 27th in Red Zone Efficiency, and 28th in 3rd Down Conversion Percentage. After the Bye they improved to 15th, 16th, 7th, 17th, and FIRST in those respective categories. That is a massive indication of improvement in the offense and Kenny Pickett and gives me hope he may have that step in him.

Additionally, Pickett has been able to show signs of that “it factor” or clutch gene that is so important in young quarterbacks. He led the Steelers to game winning drives in two games vs great defenses in the Raiders and the Niners last year. So, given the fact that the team around has improved him and he showed signs of growth in many different ways, I think he takes a large step this year and I am excited to bet accordingly. However, we have to keep in mind how Matt Canada plays into all of this.

One of the wildest things about the whole Matt Canada “should he stay or should he go” thing, is that every team that had worse offenses than the Steelers last year (9 of them) ended firing their OC or play calling Head Coach. Many more intelligent football minds than myself say he does not use the middle of the field enough nor play action enough, and they call his offense flat. There were improvements mid seasons as we already touched on with Kenny Pickett, but there needs to be a major change if the offense wants to take that leap with Pickett. I just hope the decision to stay with Canada does not hurt the Steelers long term by hindering any development of Pickett.

From a public perspective, I think a lot of people are going to hold off on the Steelers until they see something in Week 1 or whatever. Last year, we did not see much public action on the Steelers, and I would not be surprised if we get the same thing this year. People have too many questions on Matt Canada and Kenny Pickett to be confident despite their top tier defense. However, I think that gives us a lot of value in betting the Steelers early since after what I described I think they may shock some people depending on how the offensive scheme improved. I’m looking at them being +2.5 at home to the quarterback less Niners in Week 1 and licking my lips at that possibility.

Similar to last year, I am eyeing a lot of bets on the Steelers again. Im not sure what it is, but I love betting them. First thing is we have to take TJ Watt to win defensive player of the year and to have the most sacks in the NFL. It is undoubtedly a possibility he will do both of these things in his career, and as long as he stays healthy that can happen in 2023. Offensively, look at George Pickens to keep improving with Kenny Pickett and have more than his 800 yards he had last year (his line is only set at 775 on FanDuel). Lastly, I am in on the Steelers over, I think Pickett improves enough with the Run game and defense to hit 9 wins. Now, I am not sure that gets them into the playoffs, so I am staying away from those options.

Best Bets:
+2.5 Steelers Week 1 vs Niners
TJ Watt +750 most sacks AND +850 DPOY (0.5u)
Over 8.5 Wins -150 FD
Over 775.5 yds George Pickens -112 (had 800 last year)

Baltimore Ravens 2023 Preview and Best Futures
Written by Andy

The last year has been an interesting one for the Ravens. You can look at it from the inconsistency and adversity they faced last season, the Lamar Jackson saga, or even how they fared against the spread. The first two are pretty well documented, so let me walk you through their path ATS last season as a refresher. This team started 2-5 ATS trading wins and losses towards a 4-3 start. 5 more games and they string together a 4-1 run but 2-3 ATS during that time. Lamar went down at that 12 game mark, and Tyler Huntley took over to finish the season with a 2-4 record but 4-2 ATS.

Believe it or not, my optimism for this Ravens team stems from their final two games against Cincinnati, where they lost by 11 and then 7 in the playoff game, but truly held their own in what was a throwaway game and a close wild-card matchup. Tyler Huntley, JK Dobbins, and Gus Edwards ran to keep the offense decently viable while the defense put on a great show against Joey B and the Bengals to only lose that game by a fourth-quarter touchdown. The Ravens did what they had to do this offseason in order to take a team that was inconsistent due to a lack of options and gave Lamar a lot of much-needed help.

The most perplexing thing to me about the Ravens 7-9-1 ATS season is that this team was 7-3 on the road against the spread, and 4-1 as an underdog. Some of these weird situations ATS could very easily happen again, whether that is due to Vegas giving them very odd or large spreads throughout the year, or if this team gets super banged up again. I think if this Ravens team stays healthy, we will see them get the Bills and Chiefs treatment of large spreads that you are not sure what to do with a lot of times, especially at the beginning of the season.

 

Baltimore’s key additions include Odell Beckham Jr. which was well documented, as well as Nelson Agholor in free agency and drafting Zay Flowers. With Bateman returning to full health and Duvernay showing flashes last season, on paper this squad should have the receiver depth it needs to succeed finally with a mix of veterans and young talent. Pair that with Mark Andrews, JK Dobbins, and Gus Edwards who have proven their worth already in this offense, all behind the #4 ranked offensive line by Pro Football Focus, and you’ve got a perfect storm for Lamar Jackson to return to.

The real question here is if we can take Todd Monken’s word and his history as an offensive coordinator at face value or if it will be a transition into his style of offense. Greg Roman was known for his power run offense and made Lamar shine as a playmaker and major rushing threat. Monken is so focused on an offense that passes all the time, and his spread concept is something this Ravens team will have to learn quickly. These guys are all extremely talented, so I have no doubts the boys in Baltimore will figure it out, but it will challenge what people believe about Lamar’s passing ability if they truly are going to pass much more often despite having one of the best running quarterbacks of all time.

An offense with Top 5 potential will be paired with a defense with that same expectation. Roquan Smith coming on board to pair with Patrick Queen was a godsend last season, and let Queen do what he does best in flying around the field causing chaos while Smith really held it down in the middle. Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams at safety will be a plus as both guys will have a full offseason to continue to improve in their jobs after playing different roles for Baltimore last year. I touched on the NFC South preview how the Ravens let Calais Campbell walk, but the pressure will be on their defensive line even more this coming season to fill his void as Broderick Washington and Justin Madubuike are in contract seasons while young guys like Michael Pierce and Travis Jones will have their opportunity too. Finally, Baltimore added a former Colt and Raider at cornerback in Rock Ya Sin who will be a solid all-around addition to this unit mixed with youth and experience.

The Ravens have the 12th hardest strength of schedule according to Sharp Football Analytics, yet still hold a win total of 10.5. This was previously 9.5 but was quickly bet up to 10.5 in most places. Baltimore’s divisional win total is set at 3.5 juiced to the under at -145. Finally, the Ravens are +2000 to win the Super Bowl on Draftkings, and are +250 to win the division on FanDuel.

My first play on Baltimore is a Dual Forecast bet on the Ravens and Bengals to be in the Top 2 of the division in any order at +200 on Draftkings for half a unit. I believe these two teams are the clearcut 1a and 1b in the AFC North, and the Ravens showed they truly were not far off from Cincy in the final two games of last season.

I will also be taking the Ravens to win the division at +250 for half a unit. The talent is there. The coaching is there. Both sides of the ball are in fantastic shape coming into the season. What happens if Cincy slips up a bit this season? They are far from perfect and have a tough division, so who better to grab some value on than the team that’s just a smidge below Cincy in Baltimore?

Finally, it is more juice than I normally like to lay, but I am locking in the Ravens to make the Playoffs at -150 on FanDuel for a full unit. You’re telling me you have to pay just a bit of extra juice to get the sixth favorite for best NFL record on Fanduel to make the Playoffs? This team is also the 8th favorite in Super Bowl odds in most places. How do you get the best record or win the super bowl? You make the playoffs.

This season is a matter of health for the Ravens, not a matter of if they can do it. There are enough games for this squad to have a solid record and they can split with Cincy which helps their case a ton as long as they take care of business against Pittsburgh and Cleveland. This squad stumbled their way into the playoffs last year, and will have a much better chance this year with so much more potential on both sides of the ball.

Best Bets:
Ravens to make the Playoffs -150 (1u)
Ravens to win the division +250 (0.5u)
Dual Forecast: Ravens & Bengals +200 (0.5u)
Cincinnati Bengals 2023 Preview and Best Futures

Written by Deej

A strong 2022 campaign led by Joe Burrow saw the Bengals bow out in the AFC Championship game to the eventual Super Bowl winning Kansas City Chiefs. We all know the Bengals are right there as a top 5 team in the league, but do they have what it takes to finally lift the Lombardi Trophy? And what does the public think, will we still be able to be confident betting the Bengals in 2023 as they slam through ATS records?

After finishing the 2022 season at 12-4 the Cincinnati Bengals went on to lose to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship. Although they lost in 2022, the Bengals have shown they are one of (if not the only team) that can hang with the Chiefs in the AFC. They now enter the 2023 season with a win total set at 11.5, the odds on favorite to win the MVP and a lot of question to answer regarding cap space in the future as well as locking up Joe Burrow.

 

 
I think already at this point in his career, Joe Burrow is basically synonymous with the Cincinnati Bengals. You cannot go anywhere or discuss the team without considering what he has to offer as one of the premier talents in the NFL. Looking towards 2023, I am looking at Burrow to take another leap in terms of talent and compete with Mahomes in the yards department now that (hopefully) his offensive line continues to improve. Not to mention, the Bengals managed to keep the majority of the coaching staff around and keep things comfortable.
 
The major move this offseason for the Bengals was snagging 4x Pro bowler Orlando Brown Jr to beef up the offensive line. The question surrounding the Bengals in these recent years has been the offensive line. Joe Burrow has managed to impress everyone practically without one defending him, so with a finally competent one, the sky should be the limit. Adding Brown among others brings the Bengals to rank 17 from Pro Football Focus. The same ranking system that had them at 28th starting last year, yet still managing to go 12-4. I see this as a HUGE win, and something to monitor from a public perspective as I am sure everyone will be all in on the Bengals come Week 1.
 
Moving to the core of the offense; simply put the Bengals have the best Wide Receiver corps in the league. Jamar Chase has my vote to win offensive player of the year, Tyler Boyd is in a contract year, and Tee Higgins looks to continue to make a name for himself. The offense lost a key 3rd down player in Hayden Hurst, but the front office managed to bring in Irv Smith to fill in that gap. Joe Mixon’s contract woes are finally behind us and I think he is poised for another solid season, especially with an improved offensive line and run blocking unit, there is no limit to how far this offense can go as they are not even a run first team. Put it all together and the Bengals have another top 5 offense loading up for the 2023 year.

Defensively, a lot has changed for the Bengals as we look into the 2023 season. They lost some big secondary pieces including their starting CB and safety duos of Jessie Bates, Von Bell, Eli Apple, and Tre Flowers. It seems as though over the last few years, though, the Bengals have been prepping for a moment like this. They will just need young guys like Dax Hill and Nick Scott to step up. Luckily, they are also hopeful they can get a full year out of Awuzie, who needs to be an impact player this year given the major losses. In the draft the Bengals also picked up Myles Murphy to make an impact up front with Trey Hendrickson. Given all of the changes, experts still have this defense in the top 15 and top 12, so maybe they wont be as good as last year, but I still see them winning the division.

From a public betting perspective, the public absolutely loved to back the Bengals last year, and I mean who didn’t. They were one of the best teams ATS last season, and Joe Burrow continues to baffle oddsmakers with his consistency at covering spreads. I mean he is 18-8 ATS at home and 23-10 ATS when he plays a team not in the AFC North. I think a lot of the general betting public will hear about the Orlando Brown move this offseason given the major storylines behind the offensive line of the Bengals. Yet, they may not hear about the defensive changes, which then should allow us to find a lot of value in some opposing lines in Bengals games.

Additionally last year, the Bengals were a team sharp bettors focused heavily on and won a lot on. Despite the major changes and what I think the publci may think of the Bengals, I am still absolutely looking to tail the sharps when the bet with the Bengals. Joe Burrow has that dawg in him, and it helps the bettors; in my opinion this is something you bet until it backfires and I am not sure it ever will.

Overall, I still think the Bengals have what it takes to win this tough division. Constantly, the AFC North beats up on each other, but despite the 20th easiest schedule in the league, the Bengals should not have issues with anyone else. Like I said above i am looking at Bengals to win the division at +130 because plus money and Joe Burrow make a great combination. Jamar to take that next step is also an exciting prospect as long as him and Burrow are healthy. When they are together, Chase avergaes nearly 105 yards per game, so Im also taking him over 1300.5 yds.

Best Bets:
Jamar Chase to win OPOY +1100
Burrow to Have Most Passing Yards +750
Bengals to Win Division +130
JB O4300.5 yds, want him to go for 5k -112
Jamar Chase o1300.5 yds -112

So there you have it for the AFC North, please let us know what you think in the comments and check out the podcast! Remember to subscribe to never miss posts in the future! We are tackling the NFC North next.

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