2023 NFL Division Preview: NFC South Predictions and Futures to Bet Right Now

Public Perceptions in the NFL and How it Impacts Our Bets
The NFL offseason shrinks and shrinks with every coming day, and that means I am BACK to bring you the newest and most unique betting information to prepare us for this 2023 season. Over the rest of this offseason, Andy and I intend to detail and analyze the updates to each division and what we think will happen to gear you up for the season. Along with that, we provide the best bets in our opinion to bet right now because we are all here to beat the books. In these breakdowns we are placing a heavy focus on how we believe the public perceives each team in the NFL. Understanding this crucial factor, as we know from “Sharpen the Public” data last year, can really set us apart in the gambling world.
If we can understand how the general betting public understands teams, we can enter the minds of the oddsmakers when they make lines once the season starts and thus be ahead of the general bettors that Vegas makes most of their money on.

NFC South
Each breakdown here on happyhoursports.net will include discussions on the major changes for the teams being analyzed as well as the best bets to make right now in regards to those changes. Betting futures in the NFL can be very profitable, especially if the proper amount of analysis is input.

For this episode and article we shift our focus to the NFC South. A division that a lot of people are counting out due to the massive roster changes over the last several years. We are clearly far far away from the days of Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Cam Newton, and now Tom Brady. The turnover in this division begs a lot of questions and there is a plethora of discussion regarding which team will come out on top here. The Panthers bring in Bryce Young to add that spark, the Bucs acquired Baker in a move that Andy believes is purely to tank, the Falcons drafted Bijon Robinson, and the Saints added Derek Carr. This division is up for grabs, and is in my opinion a little better than everyone may think.

NFC South Betting Lines:
per FanDuel
To Win Super Bowl: New Orleans Saints +4000 | Atlanta Falcons +5500 | Carolina Panthers +6000 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7500
Win Totals: New Orleans Saints 9.5, +120 | Atlanta Falcons 8.5, -115 | Carolina Panthers 7.5, -120 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.5, +116
To Win Division: New Orleans Saints +135 | Atlanta Falcons +220 | Carolina Panthers +330 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +700
To Make Playoffs: New Orleans Saints -154 | Atlanta Falcons +112 | Carolina Panthers +160 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +360
To NOT Make Playoffs: New Orleans Saints +126 | Atlanta Falcons -112 | Carolina Panthers -205 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -500

Carolina Panthers 2023 Preview and Best Futures

Written by Andy

Finished 7-10 Last Year and were 9-8 ATS
Public Betting on Them >50%: 4-4 ATS
Money Betting on Them >50%: 6-4 ATS
Sharps Betting on Them >50%: 6-6 ATS
The Panthers splashed big in their blockbuster deal with the Bears to acquire the number one overall pick. As a result, they acquired one of the most calculated and talented quarterbacks in recent drafts in Bryce Young. Every analyst, scout, and general manager alike continued to say the entire draft process that if Young weighed more and and was a bit taller he would be the easiest choice at #1 overall. Rumors swirled it could be CJ Stroud or Anthony Richardson, but ultimately the Alabama man ended up in Charlotte.

The good news for Bryce is that the Panthers built one of the best rosters around him that a rookie QB has inherited in recent memory. Sharp Football Analysis ranks the Panthers O-Line as the 11th best in the league heading into 2023, with many saying the floor is very high for this group as they are returning so many of their consistent starters. On top of a stellar offensive line, the Panthers brought in Miles Sanders from Philly, Adam Thielen from Minnesota, Hayden Hurst from Cincinnati, and DJ Chark from Detroit. Drafting Jonathan Mingo out of Ole Miss is also an added benefit, as the offensive firepower around Bryce Young is pretty strong when you add in Chuba Hubbard who had a great season for the Panthers following McCaffery’s departure.

A piece I did not touch on when discussing the Panthers in our Futures episode was the defense. The “Thers” added three d-linemen including Shy Tuttle, and safety Vonn Bell who headlined their signings on the defensive side of the ball. Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn will welcome more help on defense, as this Panthers unit could use it after being great at the top but not a lot of help in deep coverage last season.

I genuinely feel like this Panthers squad has what it takes to win the division. I’ve already got a full unit on the Panthers to make the playoffs at +200 from a few weeks ago, and that line has jumped to +160 now indicating we are on the right side of it. Obviously rookie QBs have growing pains, but often times those growing pains are a result of not having the support necessary around them. I believe Young already has a lot of the toolset you would want from your quarterback, with the only slight on him being he is a bit small. With a great supporting cast around him, Young has the potential to be the best QB in this division after his rookie season which is crazy to think about, but is also a testament to how bad this division is.

I’ll throw half a unit on the Panthers to win their division at +400 on Draftkings, and to win a unit on the Panthers o7.5 wins at -120 on DK and FD. The Panthers are one of my favorite teams heading into this season with the prospect of being in an awful division with a lot of talent on the roster. I think the Panthers took a gamble and it will pay off now and in the future.

Looking at their schedule, there is a chance that the Panthers go winless heading into their Week 7 Bye. Four road games with tough contests against Seattle, Minnesota, Detroit, and Miami will teach this team and Bryce Young a lot, early. I’ve got the Panthers beating the Saints on Monday Night Football in Week 2 for their first win. After the Bye, I have them beating the Texans, Bears, Titans, Bucs, Falcons, and Bucs again in the final game of the season as Tampa Bay should likely be tanking at that point for Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.

That totals up to 7 wins, with a 4-2 divisional record. If you prefer division wins, you can get the Panthers o3.5 divisional wins at +200 which is nice. I think if the Panthers are to go over their win total when they either steal one in those first six games that isn’t the Monday Night game, or they take down the Colts, Cowboys, or Packers in the second half of their campaign. If the Panthers beat the Saints or Falcons on the road they’ll be winning the division and making the playoffs, cashing a lot of tickets for us in the process.

My final play on the Panthers is with Underdog Fantasy. You guys have definitely seen me tweet about this one, and it is Adam Thielen to go higher than 575.5 receiving yards this season in Charlotte. Truthfully, I did accidentally throw him into two lineups, but both are just waiting on him as the remaining leg, so I will ride with my mistake and have two units on Adam Thielen. This play is equally banking on Thielen as it is on the success of Bryce Young. If something happens to Bryce, they do have Andy Dalton behind a solid offensive line which is not great but it is insurance on consistency under center. From 2016 through 2022, Adam Thielen has only gone under this number ONCE in 2019 when he only played ten games. Even in 2021 when he played 13 games he got to 726 yards. Thielen is the WR1 in Carolina, and I’ll back him here for two units to succeed in yardage.

From a public perception perspective, last year the Sharps ended up betting on the Panthers 12 times at a 6-6 record while the public only rode with Carolina 8 times with a similar .500 record. There was speculation heading in that things could go awry with Baker Mayfield at the helm, and before you could blink Mayfield and McCaffery were out the door.

However, while the public continued to look away from Carolina, this team surprised many with some solid results ATS to close out the season. Riding on the coattails of Chuba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman, Carolina ran the ball well against their opposition while keeping things entertaining. I do not expect the Panthers to be as slept on this season by the public after bringing in the #1 Overall Pick in Bryce Young and breathing a new life into their offensive firepower with Adam Thielen, Miles Sanders, DJ Chark, and Hayden Hurst. However, with a rough first third of their schedule, look for Carolina to have a lot of value on their spreads in Weeks 8 through 10 as things get easier and the squad gets more familiar with one another.

Best Bets:
Panthers to Win Division +400 on DK (0.5u)
Panthers o7.5 Wins -120 on FD (1u)
Adam Thielen HIGHER than 575.5 Rec. Yds on Underdog Fantasy (2u)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2023 Preview and Best Futures
Written by Deej

Brady comes and wins a Super Bowl, then goes 8-9 loses to Dak Prescott in the Playoffs, and thus retires. Brady’s retirement stirs up a lot of issues for the Buccaneers organization and I am not sure Bucs fans are looking forward to this time. The big additions include Baker Mayfield and Chase Edmonds as well as Dave Canales to the coaching staff.

On the other side of the coin, the losses continue to pile up including Scotty Miller, Josh Wells, Shaq Mason, Donovan Smith, Leonard Fournette, Cameron Brate, Sean Murphy Bunting, Mike Edwards, and even Blaine Gabbert and Ryan Succop. The Brady ship has clearly sailed and everyone is jumping from the theoretical pirate ship.

The major question now is can Baker or Trask be the answer? I thought Baker could do it in Carolina and he was awful, so what is there to look forward to in Tampa Bay? For one, Dave Canales may be able to get the most out of Baker or Trask given his success with Russel Wilson and Geno Smith. Baker even showed a few signs of stilling having that “it” factor in LA, however, 95% of the time it was abysmal play.

The 2023 offense is going to have focus heavily on Rashad White since Fournette is gone now and I think he can be a very successful RB behind this offensive line. However, I think the issue is that defenses will catch onto the fact that Baker may not be throwing the ball too much. They also added Chase Edmonds to add some dynamic play making and give Rashad White a bit of rest hear and there.

Moving to the Wide Receivers, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Russell Gage are all still in Tampa. This is the best receiving corps in the division as both Godwin and Evans were 1000 yds receivers last season with Brady at the helm. With the offense transitioning to Baker and Dave Canales, these guys are going to get significantly less work. Brady averaged 43 pass attempts per game in 2022, while Geno and the Seahawks (Canales’ previous team) averaged 33 attempts. The passing offense will have to utilize the two premier Wide Receivers, but I am not sure it will be enough and as consistent as it needs to be to win the Bucs games.

Defensively, I do not think they are in too bad of shape. A lot of the starters from last years secondary aside from Sean Murphy Bunting remain and they were the 6th best defense last year (a major reason they won even 8 games). They also drafted Calijah Kancey out of Pitt to improve the defensive line. They also were able to keep Jamal Dean and Carlton Davis who will still make secondary headlines as they are rated in the top 32 corners by PFF.

One thing that significantly hinders the Bucs in contrast to the rest of their division, is that they have the 17th easiest schedule in the NFL compared to their NFC South counterparts who all rank in the top 5. I do not think Baker will be able to control games enough to beat the better competition they face compared to the rest of their division, and that is one of the only reasons I consider the Bucs as one of the worst in the division.

I think the public’s perception of the Bucs is that they are going to be awful, maybe a bottom 3 team in the league. I find that hard to believe given the strong defense, offensive line, and proven weapons on offense. Their ceiling in my eyes is probably 7 or 8 wins, which won’t win them the division in my eyes, but gives us some room to find value on them this season.

This is a complete turn around from where they stood in 2022. Despite going 8-9, the Bucs were 4-13-1 ATS and 50% or more of the betting public was on them in 10 games! Now, I was one of those idiotic public bettors getting railed by the books because I though Brady could cover over and over, which he could not. This is a turn around because last year everyone was way OVER confident on the Bucs and now it is everyone will be UNDER confident on them. There are going to be a lot of games this year where you won’t want to take the Bucs, but we have to because it is the right contrarian bet to make. And that is one of the best reasons why we use Sharpen the Public data to set us apart.

My best futures to take are Chris Godwin’s under Rec. Yds. at 925.5 and the Bucs to win exactly 6 games at +550. Yes, its a weird bet, but I like the value. They are not going to close games out well, but their defense should keep them in games. The win total is 6.5 and I am not betting over or under that. Therefore – 6. As for Godwin, you can get his number at 800.5 on FD or 925.5 on UD. He will get the ball way less than hes used to, so I’m taking the under on UD.

Best Bets:
Buccaneers to have EXACTLY 6 Wins +550
Chris Godwin LOWER than 925.5 Rec. Yds on Underdog Fantasy (2u)

Atlanta Falcons 2023 Preview and Best Futures

Written by Andy

The Falcons splashed big on draft night selecting Bijan Robinson, and there seems to be a lot more believers in Desmond Ridder for some reason even though I did not find him to be all that impressive. To be fair, he was lacking Kyle Pitts while he played, but I think he does get a lot of support on offense this year which is where the hype for this Falcons team is coming from. People love offensive firepower, and they will have it.

The defense on this team leaves a lot to be desired once again in my opinion. I do not understand how it has been multiple seasons with an offensive head coach in Arthur Smith and you cannot help him out at all on the defensive side of the ball. For me, this team has their third 7-10 season in a row written all over it, which I will jump into when I walk through their schedule.

Atlanta proved many wrong that a running back can still be taken in the Top 10 of the NFL Draft after recent trends for the position over the last couple of years have indicated not to spend money or draft capital on running backs. Several teams had Bijan as their #1 prospect in the 2023 class, and if he pans out that way the Falcons have a deadly backfield with Tyler Allgeier and Cordarelle Patterson backing him up.

Not only is Bijan set up for success in Atlanta from the play calling standpoint, but he also has a Top 10 offensive line helping him out according to Sharp Football Analysis. The success of Bijan will ultimately make or break this team, which brings me to my first guy to monitor early on in Desmond Ridder.

It is a tale as old as time that if you are successfully running the ball then the rest of the offense should open up. Desmond Ridder should have plenty of opportunity to succeed behind a strong offensive line and a spectacular running back room
supporting him. Add in offensive firepower like Drake London and Kyle Pitts, and you’ve got one of the most exciting young offenses in the league.

The depth drops off there as far as receiving options go, as the Falcons only really have Mack Hollins, Scotty Miller, and Eagles legend J.J. Arcega-Whiteside as their receiving corps. If Ridder can really begin to feel comfortable in his role, there is no reason to think that this Falcons team can’t do some damage.

The Falcons offense gets me just as excited as the Panthers offense does when you look at the names, the offensive line support, and the talent. This team clearly is younger than the Panthers offense which should hopefully mean better health for Atlanta, but Kyle Pitts has had his injury concerns here and there so that’s definitely something to monitor.

Where I think the Falcons will struggle is on the defensive side of the ball. Atlanta fans will tell you that their struggles have often been in the trenches on defense, and they once again did NOTHING to build on that this offseason. The Falcons brought in Bud Dupree and Calais Campbell which on paper are two big names until you look at their ages and guess where the production is projected to go next due to how old these guys are.

Atlanta were able to add Jessie Bates and Jeff Okudah to their secondary, but when the opposing quarterback has all the time in the world due to having zero pressure on them, it makes the lives of the secondary so much more miserable. I may have the wrong perception here, but it just feels like the Saints, Ravens, and Lions successfully dumped off their any aging and/or failure player on defense to Atlanta.

FanDuel has Drake London’s receiving yards set at over/under 800.5 and I will be putting a unit on his over. London played all 17 games last season and had 72 receptions on 117 targets for 866 yards and a stellar average of 12 yards per reception. He only ended up with four touchdowns, and I don’t like his 4.5 total there just due to the nature of Ridder’s question marks paired with Bijan Robinson and a healthy Kyle Pitts. The good news if Ridder doesn’t work out is that his backup is the one and only Washington Commanders cult hero Taylor Heinicke which makes me feel fine about London getting at least 801 yards this season as the only good wide out on the team.

Best Bets:
Falcons to Miss Playoffs -125 (1u)
Drake London o800.5 Rec. Yds (1u)
New Orleans Saints 2023 Preview and Best Futures
Written by Deej

After finishing the 2022 NFL season at 7-10 the Saints enter the 2023 season as the favorites to win the NFC South. The Saints added Derek Carr in the offseason to pair with Dennis Allen in his second year and second attempt at coaching Carr (was in OAK for Carr’s rookie season). From a general standpoint, I think the Saints very much have the tools to win this division. Mainly because they still have a strong defense, but also because Derek Carr will prove to be a major improvement over Andy Dalton, and I will get into that.

Starting with the major changes, the Saints lost some key defensive players in David Onyematta, Marcus Davenport and Shy Tuttle. They managed to add Derek Carr and Bryan Edwards as well as drafting Bryan Brecee out of Clemson to reinforce the defensive line. Amidst these changes and the Saints being the betting favorites, I am hearing a lot of talks about the Saints not predicted to live up to the limited hype they’re getting, and here’s why I disagree.

On the offensive line, the Saints are described by PFF as the 24th best line and worst in the division. Positively, most of the same core from last year with Andrus Peat, Erik McCoy, Cesar Ruiz, Ryan Ramczyk, and Trevor Penning is returning for the 2023 season. So why is that a good thing? The Saints O-line last year did not play many games while everyone was healthy. Penning missed 11 games, Ramczyk missed a bunch of practice, Mccoy missed pretty much 5 games, Ruiz missed 3, and Peat was out for 6, that is a recipe for disaster in today’s NFL. Another fun stat is when Erik McCoy was out the Saints were 1-4, but with him they went 6-6.

This team’s pass protection needs to improve, but 4 of the starting linemen in 2023 were drafted in the first round and one was drafted in the second, so I believe this group can be way better than they are projected to be. It’s not just a random belief either, last year there were signs like the 200 yd rush games vs Seattle and Cincy and ending last season allowing only 3 sacks total in the SF, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh games. Gaining a QB who I think will be better in the pocket than Andy Dalton, gives me confidence in this group to finish far better than their 24th ranking.

Speaking of a QB being better in the pocket, let’s focus on the improvement from Andy Dalton to Derek Carr. Last year Derek Carr had better completion Percentage, yds/g, pick ratio, lower sack rate AND QBR. Carr has thrown for 4,000+ yards 4 times in his 9 year career while Dalton has done it twice in 12 years. Carr may not be the second coming of Drew Brees, but he is a massive improvement on Dalton. The Saints even took the liberty to chat with Jon Gruden this offseason to learn how to get the most out of Carr, since Carr in Gruden’s offense threw for nearly 5,000 yards.

To pair with Derek Carr, the Saints offense has the best weapons in the division. Yes, they will miss Kamara, but likely for only 3-5 games missing weeks against the Titans, Panthers, Packers, and Bucs. Even so, they brought in Jamall Williams to pick up the slack and Kendre Miller should provide some much needed explosiveness out of the backfield.

In the receiving corps, Michael Thomas (assuming he is healthy (not a given assumption)), Rashid Shaheed, and Chris Olave can be a scary group. This offense should fit Carmichael’s scheme way more than in recent years; think more similar to when he had Drew Brees and the Saints won a Super Bowl, since Carmichael has been there for nearly 15 years. I expect Carr to improve the consistency of this offense and hopefully they learn to get the ball to Kamara more.

Defensively, Tyrann Mathieu, Marson Lattimore, and Cam Jordan are still in New Orleans which is great, although they are aging. They may have had the 8th worst coverage grade in 2022, but they gave up the second least 15 yard passing plays. I say this because I want to emphasize how strong their defense was, as it was one of the major reasons they even made it to 7 wins.

And finally, I believe they got a steal in the later portion of the draft selecting Bryan Bresee out of Clemson. He missed some time on the field due to personal reasons, but expecting he plays a lot of snaps this year, he will have a massive impact. Him and Isaiah Foskey should improve the pass rush and rush defense. Not to mention the new look defensive coordinator and Dennis Allen is known for good defenses. The team is aging and has health issues, but there doesn’t seem to be a ceiling for this team.

I don’t particularly understand the criticism the Saints are getting this offseason. I think last year was a fluke year in a lot of ways especially at the offensive line and rush defense. I hit on the injuries of the o-line earlier, but the Saints rush defense was 22nd last year. The three years prior to that it was 4th in the league. Expect New Orleans to regress back towards that 4th number in 2023.

From a public betting perspective, the betting public and sharp bettors seemed to stay away from the Saints in 2022, likely due to the lackluster quarterbacks and bad OLine play. I think, like the Bucs, their outlook will shift in 2023. I believe the Public thinks the Saints are overrated, so we could see a lack of bets coming in against the Saints, while in reality they will play well given the improvements made to the team this offseason. I will look to bet the Saints a lot this year when the public does not back them.

Overall, I think the saints have the tools to win the division easily, if they can remain healthy at the right times given they have the easiest schedule in the NFL. I think they have the highest floor of all the teams in the division, which means something. I think they have the fewest question marks in this division AND the most talent. If they stay healthy and beat up on the bad teams, they could even hit 10 or 11 wins. My best bets for the Saints are to win the division at +135, Derek Carr +140 to throw 4k yards, and Olave o1025.5 Rec. Yds -112. I think +135 TWD is better than getting Saints o9.5 at +120, since 9 games will likely win this division.

Best Bets:
Saints to Win Division +135 (1u)
Chris Olave o1025.5 Rec. Yds -112 (1u)
Derek Carr o4000 Pass. Yds +140 (1u)
So there you have it for the NFC South, please let us know what you think in the comments and check out the podcast! Remember to subscribe to never miss posts in the future! We are tackling the AFC North next.

This is an article written by DJ Bianco