2023 Week 2 NFL Best Bets and Analysis

2023 Week 2 NFL Best Bets and Analysis

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NFL Week 2 is already upon us as we dive gear up for Fall and sit in front of TVs for the next 20 Sundays. The rules for week 2 NFL betting are simple, dial in the overreactions from last week, and capitalize on the betting trends. Week 1 provides a lot of information for bettors, but often people overlook the amount of time that goes into preparing for week one and the sportsbooks beat them. And in this new NFL, bettors are still not adjusting to how much the lack of players playing in the preseason helps. So, lets dive into Happy Hour Sport’s NFL Best Bets for Week 2!

For week 2 in the NFL, there are currently 7 home underdogs and the only one the public favors this week is playing on Monday Night. That means there is so much value and potential in this week’s slate given the perspective of bettors after week one. This is how we capitalize on the market and stay ahead of the game.

If you are new here, welcome to Happy Hour Sports, my name is DJ and I track how the public and money do each week in the NFL. There is data available; information that can help us win more bets, and I want to provide it. I find it so interesting to learn when to fade the public and when to bet with them, because it is an avenue in sports betting no one has really touched. We do this every week, and we only get more information with every game played. I also have a podcast where I discuss these trends and break them down with my Happy Hour Sports colleagues, so check that out for the most information!

Last week was an amazing start to the year, beginning up 2.2 units and we look to continue that success into today. We also started off this week right with +0.5u on the Eagles tt o27.5 against the Vikings. 

I have taken a new approach to my writing this year, as it has gained a lot of traction since we started Sharpen the Public. Here you will find my best bets, which are opportunities that I have been eyeing throughout the week. However, I also provide my leans for every game, and why I decide to stay away.

It’s only week 2 and the games and data are only going to get better. We have all of last year to help influence our picks for this year and with the influx of bettors entering the market (evidenced by the bet totals last week); the sky’s the limit for where we can take our information and bets. 

Week 2 NFL Betting Trends

Since week 1 is officially in the books, that means we have official data to report regarding our public betting trends to influence our Week 2 bets. In my most recent article, I discussed the outcome of the public’s week one betting, so you can check that our here. But, here are the sparknotes.

  • Public Betting Percentage: 7-9 ATS
  • Money Betting Percentage: 7-9 ATS
  • Sharp Differential: 8-8 ATS
  • Public on Over: 3-5
  • Money on Over: 3-3
  • Sharp Diff. on Over: 2-2
  • Public on Under: 7-2
  • Money on Under: 9-1
  • Sharp Diff on Under: 10-2

Long story short, unders went pretty crazy in week one and I would not expect that to change. The sharps and money underperformed, and I think it’s because of a few bets that did not go the right way, but that happens in sports betting – what can you do? Lastly, I think the public slightly overperformed based on 2022 data, but 7-9 is not quite out of the ordinary for the public. 

Every game is different, and I want that to be clear. However, as we continue to track the general public and money trends over the season, we will have much more information than the average bettor, and we don’t need much logic to bet better than them. Anyway, let’s get into the picks because I cannot wait for this slate!

Note that I am writing this around 9:30 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider sticking around and subscribing!

Week 2 NFL Best Bets and Analysis

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills (-8), Total 47.5

The whole narrative this week on social media has been is Josh Allen actually good? Well, despite that question the Bills are still 8 point favorites to a decent Las Vegas team this week. Vegas (not the team, the sportsbooks) understands how good this Bills team is, and surprisingly the public and money are backing them as well. I think this is a great get right spot for the Bills and would consider taking this play up to 9.5 points.  The Broncos and Bills had very similar defensive stats in 2022, while the Raiders were on the complete other side of the table. The Broncos offense last Sunday is not the Bills offense, especially without Jerry Jeudy. Taking 8 point favorites can always be a bit scary, but I see this one as a 30-14 Bills win. At this point in time, we also have a Golden Rule – let’s get it back on track.

The Play: Bills -8 -110 (-110)

Las Angeles Chargers vs. Tennessee Titans (+2.5), Total 46

Throughout the week we have seen more and more public come in on the Chargers, while the money continues to stand strong on the Titans. This is the classic higher market and higher valued team in the Chargers going to play a team of “lesser” quality in the eyes of the public. To start, I love the Chargers this year, but when the money was on the Titans to cover last year – it went 5-0 ATS, that shows the power of the data we have here at Sharpen the Public and happy hour sports, nowhere else could someone tell you that. So, hold your nose and take the Titans as they have Golden Rule potential and are the home dog. They are a great teaser piece today as well. These teams played about 9 months ago and the Titans lost by 3 in LA, Vrabel will get it done at home.

The Play: Titans +3 -110 (1u)

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans (-1.5), Total 39.5

The AFC South divisional matchup of champions, a rookie quarterback showdown in Houston, there are so many storylines to build here for such an underwhelming game. Since yesterday money continues to enter the market on the Texans (moving the line), while bets come in on the Colts. There are some strong public betting indicators that excite me about the Texans. From a football perspective, this DeMeco Ryans defense did a better than expected job of handling the Ravens last week and I believe will have a scheme in place to handle the rushing attack of the Colts and Richardson. The Texans were favored once last year and lost by several points, but there is a reason the money backs them here and I like to back the money. As expected, I also like the under here, as I don’t think the Texans keep up if the game gets close to the total.

The Play: Texans -1.5 -110 (1u)

Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons (-1.5), Total 40.5

In my favorite game of the week, Jordan Love and the Packers head over to Atlanta to tackle Bijan and the Falcons. Plainly, the public is on the Packers and the money and sharps are on the Falcons. So many times have we seen this, and we tracked it last year at 82-52 ATS in favor of teams backed by the money and sharps. This Packers team is on top of the world right now as they demolished their division rival Bears last week, but the Bears defense was 5 ppg worse than the Falcons defense last year and the Falcons made some impressive improvements. AJ Dillon is not Aaron Jones and the Packers offense are going to feel that loss. This game will be close, so I like the under too, but I expect the Falcons to get it done at home.

The Play: Falcons -1.5 – 110 (2u)

Chicago Bears vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5), Total 41

Despite the Bucs beating the Vikings last week, I think there is still a lot for them to show before we can officially say they are back. The Vikings moved the ball very easily and the Bucs had to commit 0 turnovers and make 3 happen in order to barely win. There is a lot of data to back a Bears team here given their loss in week 1 and a massive overperformance by the Buccaneers. 80% of the money is on Chicago, and we are sitting pretty in a Golden Rule here. Baker is 23-11-1 ATS in his career as a favorite. I wanted to try and fit in a total here, but the Bears defense is garbage, so it could be a shootout in Tampa. Despite that, the Bears will find a way to cover.

The Play: Bears +2.5 – 110 (1u)

New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys (-8.5), Total 38.5

The New York Jets are built to be a Super Bowl contender this year. They got incredibly unlucky with the achilles of Aaron Rodgers, but that does not change their stout defense. The Cowboys on the other hand also have a great defense, evidenced by their shutout of their division rivals last Sunday night. The under is 7-2 in Zach Wilson’s starts since 2022, and he started 0-2 towards the under. There is 97% of the money on the under, and while that may be scary to some, its actually not. When there was 75% or more of the money on the under last year, unders went 47-42. The Jets won’t score a lot, but don’t expect the Cowboys to come out and score 40 again either. I would also lean Jets as they keep it closer than expected.

The Play: Under 38.5 – 110 (1u)

Plays without a writeup:

  • Commanders/Broncos u38.5: Take Broncos unders until they get too low to be taken and the commanders suck

The Leans (May take some of these closer to kickoff)

After getting such an incredible response to start the season this year, I think I want to continue to give out my leans in games that I am not even betting on because it may help others with their decisions. So if you have seen my recent Reddit posts you will see that I update these as the weeks go on. Based on all the current public betting information, here is what I am thinking for Week 2 of NFL!

  • Chiefs/Jaguars – As expected, more and more money has come in on the Jags despite the active Chris Jones and Kelce news. I love the Chiefs here, but hate how the numbers are shaping up. Gun to my head, I would take the under, but there is no reason to bet on it in my opinion. Staying away.
  • Ravens/Bengals – As much as I want to bet on this game, I think it is best to stay away. I love Cincy in this spot, but knowing Harbaugh is 18-8-1 ATS as a divisional underdog while the gross public and money are on the Bengals, there has been some late movement towards the Ravens. I liked the under (golden rule), but am going to hold back – don’t force anything
  • Seahawks/Lions – I have liked the Lions all week, and I am just not sure that’s the right side. I don’t like the number and don’t see the value in the game. 18% differential in favor of the Seahawks if you do favor Geno in this spot though, that’s good for Seattle. And there is a golden rule on the under.
  • Giants/Cardinals – I like the Cardinals +4.5, mainly because I think the Giants don’t deserve more than 3 to any team. The numbers are wishy washy in my opinion, so I am staying away. I would lean under here as well.
  • Niners/Rams – I have loved the Rams all week and the number has continued to move in their favor. However, today we are seeing some late sharp movement in favor of the Niners. I may still take the Rams or under later today, but tossing this one up as a no go for now.

Week 1 Article | Podcast

Thanks for reading! If you guys like what you see or have any comments/critiques, please let me know on twitter, I appreciate all feedback. I will see you on Tuesday with another recap episode of Sharpen the Public. 

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This is an article written by DJ Bianco

DJ Bianco Author for Happy Hour Sports at the Colosseum in Rome


Twitter:  DeejHHSports

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