2023 Week 4 NFL Best Bets and Analysis – NFL Sports Betting Picks

The Sharpen the Public Podcast covers Best Bets fort Week 4 in the NFL – Using real data driven analysis

It’s everyone’s favorite day of the week again – time for NFL Best Bets! NFL Week 4 is here and we are ready to bring you the best betting trends and stats to prepare you for the amazing slate. Here you will find the best ways to bet premier matchups like the Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins and even the Chicago Bears vs. the Denver Broncos.

We are through three weeks in the NFL and have already witnessed so much chaos. Chaos in the early weeks of an NFL season can lead to overconfidence from the general betting public, and our public betting trends indicate that may be extra likely this year.

We will dive deeper into it later in the article, but through the first three weeks the public is a staggering 24-22-1 ATS! Who knew that fading the public didn’t work? Well, I say it every week.

If you are new here, welcome to Happy Hour Sports, my name is DJ and I track how the public and money do each week in the NFL. We wanted to take the phrase “fade the public” further, because everyone talks about the betting public and money percentages, but when the numbers are brought up, there is no context around them.

Our goal with Sharpen the Public and the weekly articles at this website is to provide context to the numbers and develop discourse regarding the information. If you are ever curious as to when the public does good, or what sharp differentials are strong indicators that a bet is the sharp side, then you have come to the right place. Follow the podcast and listen to us break everything down each week!

With that out of the way, it’s time to get into this week’s best bets and analysis. Here you will find the bets that I place every week and some discussion on why I am taking it. We’re not trying to be those Twitter cappers that scream max play at you, we want you to trust us. Don’t forget you can always find my recaps of the weeks here as well – detailing where things went wrong and how I did. 

It’s already week 4 and the games and data are only going to get better. We have all of last year to help influence our picks for this year and with the influx of bettors entering the market (evidenced by the bet totals last week); the sky’s the limit for where we can take our information and bets. 

Deej Article Record from Week 3: 

• Bets: 5-3
• Leans: 2-1

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Since we are already through week 3, that means we have official data to report regarding the public betting trends to influence our Week 4 bets. I did not have the chance to finish my recap article this week, so I apologize for that. However, the recent podcast was able to break down the updates to the trends. If you missed that, here they are:

• Public Betting Percentage: 24-22-1 ATS
• Money Betting Percentage: 23-23-1 ATS
• Sharp Differential: 22-24-1 ATS
• Public on Over: 13-14
• Money on Over: 9-7
• Sharp Diff. on Over: 7-3
• Public on Under: 12-8
• Money on Under: 19-13
• Sharp Diff on Under: 23-15

Now, we are the only people that provide insights like this every week; but, we are also the only sports betting brand that will dive deeper into these numbers and tell you important ranges that trends emerge from. 

For example, through week 3, when the sharp differential has been between 10 and 14 % on a team, those teams are 9-0 ATS, which is absolutely crazy! We found awesome trends like this last year, and it will never get old here at Happy Hour Sports, so please share these articles to someone that needs to place some better bets.

As for the general trends – we are seeing the numbers fall similarly to what they were last year. Money and sharp differential on the under are doing very well, and I am excited to see the sharp differential on the over perform well to start the season, as last year it went 36-45. We also saw a great 10-5 ATS week from the money percentage, which we expected based on last year’s trends.

The main point to highlight is that you cannot blindly fade the public. Through 3 weeks this year the general betting public is 2 games over .500 and nothing can stop them. However, while it is not a single hive mind betting for the public, I believe there may be some overconfidence for the bets they place in the future. But, in every bet we take here at Happy Hour Sports, we consider the implications from these unique public betting trends.

Every game is different, and I want that to be clear. However, as we continue to track the general public betting trends over the season, we will have more information than the average bettor, and we don’t need much logic to bet better than them. Anyway, let’s get into the picks because I cannot wait for this slate!

Note that I am writing this around 9:30 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider sticking around and subscribing!

Like I said earlier, I did not get the chance to write my full recap of the week, but we talked about it in the podcast. Over the week we went 8-5 for up to about 2 units. We started this week off down 1.1u though as we lost on the under in the Lions/Packers Thu night game. Let’s get back on track.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Tennessee Titans (+2.5), Total 41.5

The Bengals are coming off a well known win in Primetime against the Rams while the Titans are coming off a tough loss to the Browns. While the Bengals did get the win, Joe Burrow is still not 100%. He had to play in order for this Bengals team to not be 0-3, but now he has to go up against a more difficult defensive line with a more injured offensive line (Titans were 10th in Dline rankings to start the season while the Rams were 22nd). Last week was the hype to buy Vrabel as a dog, but in a week after barely scoring only a field goal, we get to pick up on the underdog narrative. At home, I expect this Titans team to develop a plan to make Joe Burrow’s day very difficult, and to take advantage of this young defense. 75% of the bets are on the Bengals here, while 61% of the money follow the Titans. I believe this sharp differential is going to remain high, and we saw the Golden Rule begin to turn around last week. Let’s hope it continues to do so in this spot.

The Play: Titans +2.5 (1u) -102

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns (-2.5), Total 39.5

There are so many reasons to like the Ravens in this one, including some really good ATS numbers from Lamar and Harbaugh. However, more and more money continues to come in on the Browns as we get closer to kickoff this morning, which is a bit worrisome for me as I do like the Ravens here. Another spot I also love, is a Browns under. The Browns defense is playing absolutely lights out against everyone and only let up over 20 points to the Steelers thanks to two Steelers defensive touchdowns. This is the classic AFC North divisional matchup, and luckily we get two of the strongest defenses in football. To add insult to injury, Watson is nursing a shoulder injury, so the Browns will be forced to run the ball as much as the Ravens want to do so. 38.5 is getting into the low territory, but I do not think Vegas could make a total low enough in this spot. We also have a strong 90% of the money towards the under to back up this play (19-13 through three weeks when the money is on the under).

The Play: Under 39.5 -105 (1u)

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills (-2.5), Total 53.5

In the game of the week, we have the 70 point Miami Dolphins vs the always great Buffalo Bills in this awesome divisional matchup. This is one of those games that just features whoever has the last possession, will win and cover. With so much hype around the Dolphins offense after putting up 70 on the Broncos, I think this is a great spot to back a Bills team that is slightly undervalued for once. After the Bills loss to the Jets they went out and destroyed both the Commanders and the Raiders. The Dolphins, on the other hand, have only really played the Patriots as their most formidable defense. Backing Josh Allen at home as a small favorite is a must play after the last meeting between these teams in Buffalo saw the Bills as -7 favorites, play the numbers. The public is also slowly coming in on the Bills this morning, and in weeks 2 and 3, teams where the public betting percentage increased from Friday to closing, are 9-20 ATS. I also like the under here (what else is new) but not sure if I want to place that yet.

The Play: Bills -2.5 -120 (1u)

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5), Total 43.5

The Commanders come into Lincoln Financial Field this Sunday to play a scary looking Eagles defensive line. The issue for the Eagles here is I also think the Commanders defensive line is going to make our run day a little harder than expected. The good thing for the under is that Sam Howell is playing quarterback against this stout defensive front. This divisional matchup is going to be played on the ground, and I don’t love the Eagles to cover because I think it will be low scoring. We also get the king of unders as a ref in this one in Ron Torbert. NFC east divisional matchup where Ron Rivera has an idea of what it takes to beat the Eagles in Philadelphia as he did it last year. 64% of the public is on the over, while 63% of the money likes the under. I love this play and expect a lot from the Eagles defense in this one.

The Play: Under 43.5 -110 (2u)

Denver Broncos vs Chicago Bears (+3.5), Total 46.5

In the must bet game of the day, we have the two worst teams in the NFL battling for supremacy at the bottom of everyone’s leaderboards. I genuinely have no read on the spread in this one, as the Broncos offense should be able to torch the Bears defense, while vice versa should happen for the other side. There is some slight value as the sharp differential favors the over in this spot, and through three weeks this year the sharp differential is 7-3 on overs (a staggering 4-0 when the sharp diff. Is below 5%). I saw a lot of positives from this Bears offense in the preseason, but we have not seen anything come to fruition. I think this is a get right game for their offense. Hopefully the coaching staff allows him to run a bit more, as that is what gave them a lot of progress in games last year. I also expect nothing less than Russ to torch this Bears defense that ranks 31st in passing defense.

The Play: Over 46.5 – 110 (1u)

Oakland Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5), Total 48

In another divisional matchup on this Week 4 slate, we have the Jimmy G-less Raiders facing a barely 1-2 Chargers team. There is some heavy public backing on the Chargers here, likely due to the Garoppolo news, but I think his loss allows them to play a game they are more suited to play. For one, it does not matter who throws the passes against this defense, and when Adams is running around here, I think O’Connell should be fine. This is an AFC West divisional matchup where we have to grit up and take the points as it will be closer than expected, which is the exact reason there is a Golden Rule on the Raiders in this spot. Their run defense should be able to handle whatever is thrown at them on the ground. So, as long as the Raiders offense pulls things together against a bad Chargers defense, I think they can keep this one close.

The Play: Raiders +6.5 – 110 (1u)

Plays without a writeup:

• Dolphins/Bills under 54 on the Podcast for 1 unit.
• Cowboys -0.5/Chiefs -2.5 Teaser on the Podcast -130 for 1 unit

The Leans (May take some of these closer to kickoff)

After getting such an incredible response to start the season this year, I think I want to continue to give out my leans in games that I am not even betting on because it may help others with their decisions. So if you have seen my recent Reddit posts you will see that I update these as the weeks go on. Based on all the current public betting information, here is what I am thinking for Week 4 of NFL!

• • Vikings/Panthers – I don’t really see how the Vikings would lose in this spot. However, there are no real trends or numbers for me to back this one up, so unless some crazy numbers change the public betting trends here, I am staying away due to lack of value.
  • Texans/Steelers – I lean Texans here as the home dog, but am staying away because CJ Stroud and this team have not played a Steelers defensive front yet. Sharps also love the Texans at home, but I cannot do it.
  • Colts/Rams – Only thing I lean here is the under. The Rams stayed in the midwest over this short week for them, and there are a lot of good trends to back the Rams in this spot, but I think the Colts are better than people think. Numbers also back the over, while I like the under – so staying away entirely.
  • Bucs/Saints – Lean Bucs and under with the divisional matchup trends. Bucs offense should know how to handle this tough Saints defense, and I believe there is enough history between these teams where the Bucs can keep it close. Not taking because I don’t feel strongly enough about my takes here. Andy took Bucs +3.5 on the pod.
  • Cards/Niners – As someone who has been all over the cardinals these first two weeks, I don’t know how to feel about them in this spot. The Niners are world beaters compared to everyone else the Cards have played and this is a divisional matchup where I think Kyle Shannahan just has the Cardinals number. Sharps and the public like the Niners, so I am hesitant to back the Cards. If more and more public comes in on the Niners, then we may have to place this one. 54% of the public are on the Niners as I write this.

Week 3 NFL Article | Podcast

Thanks for reading! If you guys like what you see or have any comments/critiques, please let me know on twitter, I appreciate all feedback. Please also follow the podcast and share the website! I will see you on Tuesday with another recap episode of Sharpen the Public.

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This is an article written by DJ Bianco