Long time no see everybody! It’s @RickHHSports, back after a long hiatus due to some professional and personal developments that have been going on (all good things), but don’t think for a second I haven’t been watching MLB daily, UFC cards weekly, and NBA Summer League because @AndyHHSports has me cashing tickets. In all seriousness, I haven’t had the time I’d like to do the deep research into each of my previews, plays, and insights. I take pride in the effort and insights I provide when I write, and want to deliver you all a better product, which should also mean cashing more tickets. With that said, I do still follow every bit of sporting news, watch daily, and research my personal bets, so I encourage you to follow me on Twitter if you don’t already (hyperlinked at the top) if you enjoy my content. It’s good to be back, and without further ado lets get into my three favorite futures for the rest of the season!
Masataka Yoshida to win AL Rookie of the Year
Odds: +250
Units: 1
I’ll hyperlink throughout this sentence just a couple of the articles national writers and baseball enthusiasts wrote when the Redsox shelled out $90m over 5 years to acquire Masataka Yoshida back in December. The thought was that he’s a subpar defensive player, his power wouldn’t translate to the Majors, and that there’s no way he lives up to the pricetag. After 13 games they’d be patting themselves on the back as Yoshida was hitting below .200, hitless over his last 4 games.
Then came ‘Masa”s 16 game hitting streak, 10 of which he registered multiple hits. His season-long numbers climbed to a .321/.403/.548 split which has only gone down slightly over the last few months now to .316/.382/.492. People that watched him from his time in Japan (not me) knew it was coming. He’s kept the same trends that he had over there, here. Much like Luis Arraez, Yoshida has an unbelievably impressive strikeout rate of 10.7%, good for 6th in the league.
What Yoshida does so well compared to other batters is that he consistently makes contact and puts the ball on the ground hard. His average launch angle is 3.3%, much lower than league average, but his Hard Hit Percentage and xSLG are well above league average. He’s consistently hitting the ball hard and in play, and he’s made a career out of it.
Now, lets talk schedule. The Redsox have an easier schedule now that there are less divisional games, with 10 of their final 71 games coming against the Athletics and Royals, baseball’s 2 worst teams. The rest is a mixed bag, with 7 each games against the Orioles and Astros being the biggest hurdle, which I would consider mildly difficult in comparison to every other team. The offenses they’ll face are better than the pitching staffs on average across the board, so while the Redsox’s remaining Strength of Schedule (SOS) is 18, the pitching staff ranking is likely in the 20s, meaning Yoshida should be able to post even better numbers.
People’s biggest deterrent to this play is that Yoshida isn’t a true rookie. He’s been playing professionally in Japan for years, and that it isn’t going to go to him. But if Masataka Yoshida hits over .320 and hits near 100 RBIs, you’re left no choice. With his remaining schedule and continued adjustments to the league combined with him hitting over .333 across his last 4 seasons, I have full confidence that Yoshida can continue his run all the way to silverware.
Cleveland Guardians o80.5 wins
Odds: -125
Units: 1
The Cleveland Guardians are the MLB’s softest team through the first half of the year. Well, that is if you discount the A’s which you should because this is a 29 team league this season. Maybe 28 if the Tigers hold their bats correctly. Regardless, The Guardians have tons of players who can get on base and run the bases, but they are criminally weak when it comes to slugging. Below are the bottom five teams in HRs this season:
26. Colorado – 81
27. Pittsburgh – 81
28. Kansas City – 78
29. Washington – 78
30. Cleveland – 61
The Guardians have 17 less deep balls than the worst offenses in baseball, and I’m here to tell you they might not need much to change. Their starting and relief pitching has underperformed based on expectations this year, and there’s no reason that shouldn’t improve. Shane Bieber isn’t the Ace he was, but he’s steadily becoming more reliable this year. Another injury to Triston McKenzie hurts, but your pitching staff is deep with good prospects coming up, and you have one of the best closers in baseball. Add in that your division can’t score many runs either, and Cleveland has every chance to get to 81 wins. They’re 45-45 right now, and all they need to go is 36-36 against a very poor division. I’ll bet they do.
Blake Snell to win the NL Cy Young
Odds: +1000
Units: 1
First, let’s get into his competition. Then, we’ll dive into why Blake Snell will end the season with the best ERA in baseball and lead the Padres to the playoffs. Zac Gallen (+200) is the current favorite with Clayton Kershaw (+350) and Spencer Strider (+350) sitting right behind them. Then there’s a dropoff to Blake Snell. Of the group, Kershaw has the lowest ERA with a .255, Blake sits second at 2.84, with Zac at 3.04 and Strider at 3.44.
If we were to check xBA, that’s where Strider excels. He leads the league with a .201, while Blake Snell is against second in this group at .221. Snell is near the top of this group, so why are his odds so much lower? The Padres have been horrific for the first half of the season. They can hit lefties but not righties, and they aren’t pulling out close games. With the talent they have and the fairly easy schedule I expect them behind Snell, Musgrove, and others to find their way towards the playoffs.
Snell is well in front of his usual pace this season. Typically Snell struggles to kick off the season with command, walking far too many batters and imploding a few times before becoming unhittable after the All-Star break. I broke the entire thing down here on my Twitter (at the bottom instead of Before:/After: it should be Carrer:/This Season:)
Snell has had 3 games since this tweet. 17 IP, 2 ER, 14 H. He’s well ahead of where he typically is, and even then he’s better than he’s ever been, for an extended period now. Should Snell continue to dominate as he’s done for many Augusts and Septembers, the Padres will have a chance at the playoffs and he will win another Cy Young Award.
