Not an evenly matched bowl game, but how to bet it?
68 Ventures Bowl
South Alabama vs Eastern Michigan
12/23/2023 – 7:00 PM EST
Odds: -16.5 South Alabama
Transfer portal impacts means that this is even more uneven than the game should have been.
There’s a Great coach at Eastern Michigan given the circumstances and the real-time considerations at play in this game/timeline, and it’s hard to bet against Chris Creighton as an underdog generally.
Eastern Michigan is widely considered the worst bowl team this campaign. The impact from the transfer portal is going to hurt a lot too. They just aren’t likely to field a team that has legitimate opportunities against a team like SAU.
The under (hovering around 47 at -105) is probably the easiest pick to make, though, with the inconsistencies in South Alabama. You can probably play either the OVER 1H for South Alabama of 9.5 but it’s starting to get rich.
The problem isn’t so much that Eastern Michigan is a dumpster fire, and they have all the beneficial players out due to some reason or another. They (as in: the powers that be) need to seriously consider moving the transfer window to make bowl games more competitive. But, I guess that’s what you get when you are sponsored by a real estate development company in the gulf coast, and this is a rebrand of a rebranded bowl game.
Legitimate potential NFL talent existed prior to the past couple of weeks for SAU, but it’s just not as bright as it once was. Nevertheless, they face a pretty poor team in EMU.
How Eastern Michigan made this game is beyond me to be honest, but that said, the firecrackers that once could have improved the game for South Alabama are vastly out of the game also.
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Chances are, we’ll see the new offense lay the groundwork for next season, while taking their time against a team they know they should beat with their hands tied behind their back. The under is about the only playable bet here, and I’m not going to lie, even IT doesn’t feel great.
You could also consider playing the moneyline in a parlay with a couple other plays for bowl games, but to overcome the -800, it’s going to be rough.
I think the smartest play is waiting until the last 45 minutes before the game, and making a judgment call on how many points you want to lay for South Alabama and whether the team that’s on the field matches your expectations. At this point, I don’t really even feel comfortable taking ANY bet, unless it’s on an office pool for a straight win for SAU.
I MUST caveat this: I highly doubt I will bet in real life on this game. Ordinarily, and I mean 99.9% of the time that I make a lean or a call in an article, I either already have, or will eventually bet that way in real life. But this one stinks.
Final betting thoughts on this bowl game:
I’d probably be OK taking a u3.5 for the first quarter on Eastern Michigan too. I think there will be a strong quarter or so, of both teams finding their feet. With the strong lean towards Southern Alabama hitting the over in the first half (climbing, but hovering around 9 points). I think they will come out and play with zero reservations, and with an offense led by players that want to make a statement to the coach in hopes of playing full-time in 2024.
This is an Article Written by BW
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