Andy’s Week 2 Early Best Bets – NFL Week 2

Andy’s Week 2 Early Best Bets – NFL Week 2


Week 1 of the NFL betting action is in the books, and now we move on to the Week 2 slate with ample opportunities to take advantage of the public’s overreactions.

We could not have asked for a better Week 1 with plenty of surprises, storylines, and stuff to bet on. Now that it is officially overreaction season, we can take advantage of some market movers and preemptively try to grab some value where others may gift it to us due to their knee jerk reactions. The early weeks of the NFL season are difficult to bet on regardless of how long you’ve been doing it, but as long as you remain patience and don’t make brash decisions based on one game, you can feel good in making your plays as September rolls along.

If you are new here, welcome to my weekly Early Best Bets piece where I try to grab value on games that I like at the beginning of the week. Typically, myself and DJ like to wait until right before kick to make our plays when all of the information is readily available and the money and bet percentages are set. With this article, the goal is to find some closing line value (CLV) and add some money in your pocket where you can feel confident that you got a good number come Sunday.

Last week’s article went 2-2-0 for -0.8 units, with our 1.5-unit Teaser of the Week losing for a -1.8 loss that brought us in the negative on that second loss. However, my plays on Twitter ended up going 4-3-0 for +0.7 units, nearly negating any losses from last week’s article. I also tweeted out my first play for Week 2 Monday morning, so be sure to follow me @AndyHHSports and never miss out on any of the action!

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Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles -7
Total: 49.0

Our Thursday night matchup features an Eagles team coming off of the 4:30 PM EST Week 1 slate hosting a Minnesota Vikings team that severely underperformed hosting the Buccaneers. These two teams played 360 days prior last season during Week 2 in Philadelphia, and the Eagles won that matchup 24-7. Normally I would be hesitant to be looking at any 7-point favorite on a short week playing host to a formidable offense in Minnesota, but I’m going to take this one from a different angle.

The team total for Philadelphia is still set at 27.5 in a few betting markets, and I think they go above and beyond this number even on a short week. Minnesota allowed 25.4 points per game last season which ranked them 30th in the NFL, joining the ranks of Indianapolis, Detroit, Arizona, and Chicago for last season’s worst defensive units. They also allowed 2.7 touchdowns a game which ranked in the bottom 25% of the league. Both of these stats progressively got worse as the season went along, causing the Vikings to fall even farther down these defensive standings.

From Week 10 and on last season, the Vikings played ten games including their playoff defeat to the New York Giants. Minnesota allowed 30 points or more in six of those final ten games. Those matchups included games versus the Bills, Cowboys, Lions, Colts, Packers, and Giants.

You could make the point that the Bills, Cowboys and Lions all had Top 5 offenses in points scored per game last season, with the Eagles also ranking second in that category. However, when you end the season allowing 36, 41, and 31 points to 30th, 14th, and 18th best offenses in a five week span, that gives me a lot of concern. This isn’t a new concern for the Vikings, as Minnesota has been in the bottom 25% of teams in points allowed per game for the last three seasons now.

The addition of Brian Flores at defensive coordinator for the Vikings is a massive step in the right direction. However, with some key losses on defense and not a lot of clarity on their direction with a mix of young unproven players and older veterans, I like for the proven Eagles offense to continue to roll even on short notice. Philly put up 25 points on a much more impressive New England defense last weekend, while the Vikings allowed 20 points to the Bucs on Sunday quarterbacked by Baker Mayfield who averages 1.42 touchdowns per game in his career.

The Eagles will look to pass the ball more this season and utilize emerging star Devonta Smith as AJ Brown continues to draw the best members of their opponents’ secondaries. Minnesota allowed 11.1 yards per completion last season ranking 28th, and allowed a 66% completion percentage ranking in the bottom quarter of the NFL. The Eagles have multiple ways to score the ball on Thursday, where I still have questions about the Vikings offense following last weekend and the age old question of Kirk Cousins in primetime. Instead of the full game over, give me the Eagles to go over on BetRivers or Parx, and if you don’t have access to either of those books be sure to check the Prop Builder section on an offshore or your local.


The Play: Eagles TT o27.5 (-124) – 1.25 Units

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Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta Falcons +1
Total: 40.5

Jordan Love and the Packers went into Chicago and steamrolled the Bears on Sunday afternoon. Now they go on the road once again to face the Atlanta Falcons who have their second home game in a row after defeating the Carolina Panthers. The spread in this game opened at +1.5 to the Packers and has already flipped to Packers -1.5 which is why I locked in -1 earlier Monday morning via Twitter.

The Bears could not stop anything that Matt LaFleur’s offense threw their way, and Jordan Love ended up throwing for three touchdowns with Aaron Jones adding another. I have been on record in my NFC South Preview and my Week 1 Early Bets that I do not think the Falcons defense improved as much as people said they would. Jessie Bates proved me wrong with his two INTs, but overall I still believe that the defense looked halfway decent due to Bryce Young’s inexperience and the lack of offensive options Carolina has at their disposal. I will own the take that I was wrong in counting on Carolina’s weapons, but I am not ready to count on Atlanta’s defense after one week against the Panthers.

The Packers let up some longer rushes from the Bears runners, but overall kept them contained with Fields logging 59 rushing yards on 9 attempts followed by Herbert with 27 yards on the same number of attempts. With a two headed monster of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier on the horizon for Green Bay, they will look to stuff the run again as Desmond Ridder showed he is hardly close to an aerial threat. Although Green Bay was not great defending the run last season, I do think their efforts against Chicago show a step in the right direction that will truly be tested in Week 2.

The lack of passing threat from Desmond Ridder was even worse than many thought, as Drake London did not log a catch the entire game and Kyle Pitts led the team in receiving yards at 44. Bijan Robinson had the most catches at 6, which shows me even more that Arthur Smith is all in on focusing on Allgeier and Robinson as their key weapons on offense. I think Robinson and Allgeier are studs and should be respected, but when they are the only options you have on offense and you showed your hand in Week 1, The Packers should be able to handle their business.


The Play: Packers -1 (-110) – 1.5 Units



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