2023-24 College Football Betting Week One
We’re finally here everybody. Back in the saddle Thursday night and we’re not slowing down until they kick us out. Got the group together and we’re putting some of our best picks to help you get through the weekend. Honestly just can’t explain how excited we are to be back here and if you love college football the way we do make sure to check us out on Twitter… I mean X @TnTCFBPod and you can find our week 1 preview embedded or in the link below.
Bennett’s Picks for College Football Betting Week 1
Throwing one out for every day of the weekend right here. Games start tonight and end on Monday so plenty of action for you to have some fun with right here.
Florida @ Utah College Football Picks Week One
Florida @ Utah
Spread: Utah -4.5
It’s the primo game of Thursday night so we have to do something with it. Right now it looks like Cam Rising will not play for the Utes and even if he did we still feel comfortable that this game is going to be an absolute rock fight. It also sounds like Utah’s top target, Brant Kuithe is really up in the air as well to be ready to go tonight. Florida has their own problems going on and Billy Napier runs a pretty rush heavy offense behind a decent line with a couple of decent running backs. Last year the Florida offense was pretty high in their explosive plays rate but there’s no chance in hell Graham Mertz will be able to do anything close to what Anthony Richardson did in that department. Morgan Scalley runs a complex defense that should be able to keep Florida from moving the ball. Also look out for Florida’s new 30 year defensive coordinator, Austin Armstrong. It’s his first year calling plays for the Gators and last year at Southern Mississippi his defense had a top ten blitz rate so I fully expect both teams to rush the ball and struggle to move it through the air. Clock clock clock clock clock clock.
Pick: u44.5 (-110) on DraftKings
Miami (OH) @ Miami (FL)
Spread: Miami (FL) -16.5
Why yes, I did write Hurricanes there. Miami (OH) is heading down to Coral Gables and the Confusion Bowl is ready to kick off on Friday night. Brett Gabbert made some comments about who the real Miami is, and while I love his confidence this Canes team is actually loaded. The Hurricanes have a loaded offensive line and I think Tyler Van Dyke will revert back to his 2021 self under the guidance of new offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson. The defense is loaded with talent as well and I fully expect Lance Guidry to have them ready to go on Friday night.
Pick: Miami Hurricanes -16.5 (-110) on Caesars
UTSA @ Houston College Football Betting Week One
UTSA @ Houston
Spread: UTSA -1.5
This was probably the most exciting game of week 1 last year and it required Houston going into overtime to finish off UTSA 37-35. Lots of changes going on for Houston though with Clayton Tune and Tank Dell both off to the NFL. Donovan Smith is totally fine and has played at the top level in college football but this matchup seems to be too much for Houston. UTSA is still boasting a tough defense and on the offensive side of the ball Frank Harris is back for his seventh year but he did lose his top target, Zakhari Franklin to Ole Miss. Look for Jeff Traylor to have a great year and kick it off with a bang for the Roadrunners as I think this will probably be his last year in San Antonio. MEEP MEEP
Pick: UTSA -1.5 (-112) on FanDuel
Northwestern @ Rutgers College Football Betting Week One
Northwestern @ Rutgers
Spread: Rutgers -6.5
The best game of the weekend by far. I’m kidding obviously but we need something to do on Sunday at noon. This Rutgers squad actually does a really good job at getting off the field on third downs but it just goes unrealized with how bad the defense typically is. With all of the Northwestern drama going on I highly doubt they’ll be ready to go and this game will probably be low scoring but Rutgers should be able to handle this by at least a touchdown.
Rutgers -6.5 (-111) on Caesars
Clemson Duke – College Football Betting Week One
Clemson @ Duke
Spread: Clemson -13
Finishing it off with the Monday night game. The Clemson offense is absolutely going to take a step forward here (at least through the air) behind Cade Klubnik with Garrett Riley calling the plays. Clemson’s defense is still going to be good but the huge question from last year remains with can their defensive backs do anything to stop some wide receivers? Duke has a good trio of wideouts, a good offensive line, and Jaylan Coleman in the backfield to really help Riley Leonard out wherever he needs it. The one thing that is really going to change this game is the turnovers. Duke was near the top of the turnover differential in the P5 last year and Clemson won’t make any mistakes. That’s why we’re not leaning any certain way on the line but definitely think this game is going to hit the over with two really good offenses and some questionable secondaries.
Pick: o55.5 (-108) on FanDuel
Andy’s Picks for College Football Betting Week 1
Oregon State @ San Jose State College Football Picks for Week One
Oregon State @ San Jose State
Spread: Oregon State -16.5
Oregon State lived by the run game last season, ranking Top 30 in rushes per game at 39.9 and 11th in percentage of rush plays at 61%. The Beavers had good reason to operate heavily behind their strong rushing offense, as they ranked 32nd in yards per rush grabbing 4.9 per rush attempt, and sat Top 25 in rush yards per game at 195.5. They return two of their top rushers in Deshaun Fenwick and Damien Martinez, and the loss of Jam Griffin will be compensated for by upgrading the passing game with newest addition DJ Uiagalelei at quarterback.
DJ was much maligned at Clemson and was eventually unseated by the Tigers’ starter this season in Cade Klubnik. However, he gets a fresh start at Oregon State paired with a team coming off of a lot of momentum from last season. Uiagalelei gets a very strong tight end core to bank on in the passing game, and returns Anthony Gould and Silas Bolden who performed well last season at receiver and special teams. Dabo Swinney ended up firing his longtime friend and new offensive coordinator Brandon Streeter after one season on the job, which bears the question of if DJ is truly the one to blame for the mishaps on offense in the Death Valley last season.
The Beavs were the second best team ATS last season at 11-2, and I like them to continue their run against a San Jose State team who covered on Saturday but were 4-8 ATS last season. San Jose State did not see anyone run the ball as well as the Beavers did last year, and Oregon State is accustomed to the pass heavy aerial attack of the Spartans due to how heavy their PAC-12 opponents air it out on a regular basis. I give a lot of credit to this Spartans team starting the season off against two huge PAC-12 opponents in USC and Oregon State, but I value Oregon State’s newly mutli-faceted offense paired with the film from last week much more than I value the one game the Spartans have under their belt already from Week 0.
Don’t let last week fool you – San Jose State is not as good as they appeared to be in their first half against Southern Cal last week. USC turned things around in the second half exposing San Jose State in the process, yet the public is already getting closer and closer to a 50/50 split in Sundays game against the Beavers. I’ll ride with where the money sits here during the middle of the week by backing the Beavers to cover -16.5, and will continue to monitor as we get closer to Labor Day Weekend
Pick: Oregon State -16.5 (-110) on FanDuel
Lonte’s Picks for College Football Betting Week 1
College Football Picks for Week One 2023 – NC State @ UCONN
NC State @ UConn
Spread: NC State -14
The Wolfpack open their season under a new era. An era with a playcaller like they haven’t had in Raleigh in quite some time. Tim Beck’s playcalling was horrible throughout his tenure and that’s putting it nicely. Brennan Armstrong reunited with Robert Anea who helped him to his best season while at UVA. The talent level is higher here than it was at UVA and I’m expecting similar success with the reconnection.
The speed on the outside for the Wolfpack should give the Huskies problems. Armstrong will be implemented more in the rush attack also which will open the playbook even more. There is no doubt the Huskies are improved but defensively I’m not sure they’ll be able to slow down Anea & Armstrong.
Pick: NC State Team Total Over 30.5 (-117) Betrivers
Rusty’s Picks for College Football Betting Week 1
College Football Matchup – Nevada @ USC – Week One Betting picks for NCAAF
Nevada @ USC
Spread: USC -38
Once again I’ll be taking the Heisman favorite Caleb Williams to cover the team total over. I’ll probably be taking this pick every week this year. Find yourself a 2/10 at the local watering hole and get your Trojans ready. Lock it in.
Pick: USC TT O51.5 (-130) via Draft Kings
C0llege Football 23′-24 Week 1 – LSU @ Florida State (Orlando)
LSU @ Florida State (in Orlando)
Spread: LSU -2.5
Don’t overthink this. LSU. Saturday night game. Purple, white and gold. It was meant to be. Gimme the ML. Geaux Tigers.
Pick: LSU ML (-140) via DraftKings
Rick’s Picks for College Football Betting Week 1
Week 1 NCAAF 23′-24′ Boise State/Washington
Boise State @ Washington
Spread: Washington -14.5
The Huskies come into 2023 with arguably the most hype behind them this century, including 2016 when they were run through by Alabama in Atlanta. Michael Penix Jr. looks to improve on his 4,641 passing yards, 35 TDs, and 8 INTs and has each of his top 3 receivers back. It’s been well documented how elite the Huskies are on the offensive side of the ball, but if they’re to make a serious charge at the final PAC-12 Title and a potential College Football Playoff berth they’ll need to improve drastically on defense after a very average year.
Though the Huskies picked up some important transfers in the portal (see Jabbar Muhammad, their new starting CB), they lost some guys too and it seems that we’ll have the exact same problems with Washington we had in the past. The front seven is solid, but their defensive backs are the weak spot of their team and Boise State will utilize their new high-powered offense to make this a thrilling, high-scoring affair that might be closer than Washington fans want to make it. I won’t touch the spread, but I will take points to be scored in numbers. Give me the over in what will be a 38-24 affair or close to.
Pick: o58.5 -105 (via Fanduel)
Week 1 NCAAF 23′-24 LSU/Florida State
LSU @ Florida State (in Orlando)
Spread: LSU -2.5
This is the game that everyone has been scared to lay any real money on all summer because nobody has confidence in just HOW elite each team is. We all, largely, trust Brian Kelly to lead a great locker room and manage personnel and games well. Jayden Daniels is electrifying in the open field and is one of the favorites to win the Heisman. They have one of the Tazmanian Devil in Harold Perkins Jr. running ragged sideline-to-sideline and are bolstered by the 2nd ranked transfer class, only behind Colorado. Their defense has been overhauled with studs like Omar Speights from Oregon State, Duce Chesnut from Syracuse, and Jordan Jefferson from West Virginia, but with so many new players, how will it gel and how fast will it? Can Jayden Daniels continue to make leaps the way he did throughout last season?
For Florida State, I’m not sure they’ve had this much hype behind the program since Jameis Winston was stealing crab legs and handing it off to Dalvin Cook! If you haven’t looked at that roster in a while, refresh yourself. Nearly the entire team ended up being studs in the NFL. Back to the present though, you’ve found your head coach and quarterback in Mike Norvell and Jordan Travis, but this team is far deeper than that. Their WRs and TEs are probably the largest, most physical in the country and in adding South Carolina’s Jaheim Bell to the mix it only improves.
Florida State’s struggle will be missing top end talent at various position groups (DB, LB, OL), but what each of those groups have are dependable, experienced and talented individuals that have been in the system for a while. With LSU not having a competent running back healthy, the battle between LSU’s improving offensive line and Florida State’s elite defensive line will be the x-factor in this game.
While LSU raided the transfer portal, so did Florida State. I trust the leadership of Florida State and the ability to largely keep LSU’s offense predictable on big downs. Florida State wins a close one 29-24.
Pick: Florida State ML +116 (via Fanduel)
Pat’s Picks for College Football Betting Week 1
Week One NCAAF – Middle Tennessee State @ Alabama
Middle Tennessee State @ Alabama
Spread: Washington Alabama -39.5
All eyes will be on the future of the quarterback situation for the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa on Saturday. Reading the tea leaves tells us Jalen Milroe should get the nod on Saturday. How well he does is anyone’s guess. Middle Tennessee State does own half of the preseason CUSA all first team defense and should be able to snuff the running attack of Alabama as best they can. If Milroe and Co can get the passing attack humming, maybe they put up some big numbers but I worry there will be some bumps in the road to start the season.
For the Blue Raiders, they replace only 44% of their offensive production from last year, which ranks 116th in the nation according to ESPN. Returning QB, Nicholas Vattiato, has played in the past, tallying 1K yards a few seasons back in relief but was suspect in his appearances last season. The running game returns their best rusher but against Alabama’s front seven, how effective will that be?
I worry for both offenses to start the season. Alabama should do enough and put up 30-40+ but I’m not sure where MTSU will find a rhythm in this one. I’m expecting lots of run plays, which should eat up plenty of clock with the new rules and a score of something like 40-7. I took the under last week at 53 and still think there is room at 51.5.
Pick: U51.5 Total Points
Tyler’s Picks for College Football Betting Week 1
Week One – UVA @ Tennessee
UVA @ Tennessee (in Nashville)
Spread: Tennessee -28
This one is pretty simple to me. Virginia is going to be a team in contention for the worst team in the Power 5 this year, potentially in all of FBS. Tennessee lost a lot of impact players on offense, but are relatively loaded on that side of the ball. The Vols could very well solo this line, but when their defense is still as suspect as it is, I expect Virginia to reach the end zone at least once this game. It won’t be close at all, but points will be scored.
Pick: o56 (-110) on DraftKings
Week One – Cal @ UNT NCAAF Btting Picks
Cal @ UNT
Spread: Cal -6.5
Not sure how many people outside of the real sickos are going to have any action on this game, but I really like North Texas to snatch one away from the touchdown favorite Golden Bears. Cal is going to have another suckshow of a season, and UNT opening on their home field in the middle of a huge heat wave should help their cause. Give me the Mean Green in an upset here.
Pick: UNT ML (+205) on Fanduel
Week One – Colorado @ TCU
Colorado @ TCU
Spread: TCU -20.5
I am begging people not to fall for the hype this year. Colorado, even if they end up being decent by the end of the year, are going to flat out suck starting out. Buffs have a tough schedule this year as it is, but revamping a whole entire roster comes with a load of challenges that simply won’t have been addressed by week 1. TCU had some huge losses to the NFL this past offseason, but the Buffs won’t be the team to exploit that.
Pick: TCU -20.5 (-115) on Fanduel
Week One – Utah State @ Iowa NCAAF
Utah State @ Iowa
Spread: Iowa -23.5
Not going to waste your time explaining why I’m taking an Iowa under. They’re an auto-under until proven otherwise.
Pick: U43.5 (-115) on Fanduel
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This article is written with contributions from Andy, Rick, Bennett, Lonte, Rusty, Pat, & Tyler.