Will Schwartz’ College Football Betting Picks Week 10
Notre Dame @ Clemson +3, o/u 45
It’s been a breath of fresh air to see some of the best teams in the country this season be defense-first squads rather than offensive juggernauts who couldn’t care less about the other half of the game, and it’s also been a great money making opportunity. Some of my best bets this season have been unders in marquee matchups, and this one is no exception. Well, “marquee” may be a stretch as Clemson is a total disappointment overall this season, sitting at just 4-4, but their defense is the absolute juggernaut it was supposed to be.
The Tigers fifth in the country in EPA per play, driven in large part by an elite pass defense. Notre Dame isn’t too far behind, bolstered by one of the country’s best secondaries, and while their offense is a good deal better than Clemson’s, we’ve seen them be less productive and hit unders in games against top defenses like Ohio State and Duke. They’ll have an especially hard time moving the ball in Clemson’s Death Valley, one of the rowdier road environments in the country, and paired with Clemson’s total ineptitude when it comes to offense in general, even at home, this under is an absolute smash.
Pick: Under 45
@RickHHSports Week 10 CFB Picks – NCAAF
Notre Dame @ Clemson +3, o/u 45
I’ve had a fantastic feel for this Notre Dame team as it comes to betting going 3-0 backing them and 3-0 fading them, and I feel just as confident going into this as the rest of them. Clemson is a team I’ve struggled to figure out, as I had futures on them to exceed expectations, but quite simply Klubnik is not the guy everyone thought he was coming into Clemson and this team has a noticeable talent drop from previous years. Dabo’s reluctancy to enter the transfer portal for recruits is hamstringing this program’s ability to keep up with other top tier programs.
Dabo and Clemson need this win more than anything to avoid being the laughing stock of college football, which they arguably already are. They’ve underperformed based on advanced metrics, but this team hasn’t shown me once this year that they have that “dog in em” to find their way against a Notre Dame team who didn’t hang their heads after losing to Ohio State and Louisville in a three week span. Scoring over 100 in their last two games, they travel to Clemson still fresh off the bye week given starts could rest in their 58-7 beatdown of Pitt, and I think they’re able to hang 28+ on Clemson, which will be plenty to cover the three point spread. Go Catholics.
Pick: Notre Dame -3
LSU @ Alabama -3, o/u 61.5
The Tigers have one of the best offenses in the country and a Heisman contender in Jayden Daniels, and he’s going to have to play the game of his life to keep them in this matchup. Alabama is far and away the best defense they’ve faced this year (second is Florida State’s underwhelming crew), and we all know how horrific the LSU defense is. If you challenge that, please don’t bring up their last two matchups against Auburn and Army. It’s Auburn and Army.
Alabama has been underwhelming by their standards, beating three of their five conference opponents by just one score. Still, I trust them at home in the biggest game of the year to get it done. What gives me the most confidence is the coaching matchup. I’ll take Saban over Brian Kelly every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Pick: Crimson Tide -3
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@AndyHHSports College Football Betting Picks Week 10
Washington @ USC +3, o/u 76.5
Yes, you read that total right. Eleven touchdowns will get you your over in this weeks marquee PAC-12 showdown. The current odds on favorite to win the Heisman award in Michael Penix Jr. takes on the preseason favorite to repeat and win the Heisman again in Caleb Williams in what should be an absolute shootout.
When USC has gone up against any above average offense this season, the Trojans have let up points beyond belief. In their last five games USC has let up 42.6 points on average, which includes games against Colorado, Arizona, Notre Dame, Utah, and Cal. The Trojans defense will be facing their biggest test to date on the defensive side of the ball against the dynamic duo at wideout in Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk.
The Huskies rank in the Top 10 of college football in total yards at 504.8 a game, passing yards per game at 399 which is the best in the country, and points per game at 40.4 a contest. Defensively the Huskies leave a lot to be desired just like USC, which leaves room for concern as their games have been high scoring too. Caleb Williams has been sacked at least four times in the last four games now, and if the Huskies can get past this USC offensive line and disrupt the quarterback. I will be watching Bralen Trice match up against that right side of the Trojans O-Line as I think he can break through and cause some chaos when USC drops back to pass, despite the defensive unit as a whole being susceptible to be scored on often.
I’ll take the Huskies here on the road as they continue to hunt for a College Football Playoff berth as the PAC-12 seeks a representative in the big dance one last time.
Play: Washington -3