Happy Friday everybody. Back with another preview and we’re trying not to talk about realignment since we’re only a couple weeks away from the season. Hope this gets you guys ready to go and as always don’t tweet at recruits. The podcast is available here and embedded below if you don’t read good or just need something to listen to in your car.
Table of Contents:
Arizona Wildcats
Arizona State Sun Devils
Cal Golden Bears
Colorado Buffaloes
Oregon Ducks
Oregon State Beavers
Stanford Cardinal
UCLA Bruins
USC Trojans
Utah Utes
Washington Huskies
Washington State Cougars
Betting Guide
The Don’t Touch it List
Futures Plays
Arizona Wildcats
We are the resident Jedd Fisch podcast and it was 5-7 year two for our true king the Fisch man after a 1-11 record in 2021. The Wildcats did beat UCLA and won the Territorial Cup but their only other in conference win was against Colorado. Arizona got smoked at home by Mississippi State, beat San Diego State, and NDSU (barely.) The offense was beyond good. They went from a sub 100 offense in 2021 to the 20th overall ranked total offense in 2022 under first year coordinator Brennan Carrol. The rushing attack was pretty darn good behind Michael Wiley but the passing offense was fantastic behind Jaden De Laura. The offensive line is strong and will return some starters this year. Really the only thing they lost on offense that will be a blow is WR Dorian Singer who transferred to USC but catch machine Jacob Cowing is back and so is Tetairoa McMillan after a 700 yard true freshman campaign.
Bottom ten in scoring defense last year… there’s just no way to look at it positively. They lost their top five tacklers, they’re not returning much production at all but it has to be addition by subtraction. Subtract all that and add in five transfers from big time schools who will start immediately, including Justin Flowe from Oregon and this defense has to get better. Cornerback Christian Roland-Wallace transferred to USC so and the secondary will be looking to improve as a unit that allowed the best passing completion percentage in the power 5.
In the past ten years Arizona has played in the conference championship but Rich Rod and Kevin Sumlin really left them in a bad spot. Fisch is recruiting well and establishing a SoCal/Arizona pipeline so seems like it was only a matter of time before they get it even more together.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Arizona State was no longer firm for Herm in 2022 and he was let go after a week three loss at home to Eastern Michigan. By the end of the year they had only racked up wins against NAU, Colorado and a puzzling win against Washington. Offensively they were a pretty good team in 2022. Tanner Bourguet replaced Emory Jones down the line and they became one of the most balanced and accurate teams in the Pac-12. They just weren’t able to convert yards into scores too often behind a shaky line, but the weapons out wide were good and Xazavian Valladay was the top rusher in the conference. 33 year old Kenny Dillingham was brought in from Oregon and the ASU alumnus is excited to get started. QB Emory Jones is off to Cincinnati but Trenton Bourguet is back along with former Notre Dame quarterback Drew Pyne and freshman Jaden Rashada. Valladay is going to have to be replaced in the backfield and it’s up to Cameron Skattebo from Sac State or DeCarlos Brooks from Cal. Three major options in the passing game are back with Elijah Badger and Giovanni Sanders out wide, plus Jalin Conyers at tight end for a trio that combined for over 1,700 yards receiving and 13 touchdowns. As stated, the line had some problems and they lost LaDarius Henderson who transferred to Michigan but they did also add some pieces to try to make up for the difference.
Defense was not the same case as the offense in 2022. They gave up yards everywhere, couldn’t generate pressure, and they couldn’t get off the field on third downs. Dillingham has brought Brian Ward down from Washington State and he runs a pretty aggressive nickel scheme. Most of the front four is gone and they’ll really be hurting as they try to replace the production of Omar Norman-Lott who transferred to Tennessee. This defense has a total of eight guys coming over from other P5 programs so Dillingham is hoping the talent level will be able to make an impact immediately.
Year one will definitely be a learning curve for Dillingham as a head coach. Regardless of who steps up as QB1 the offense should be able to compete against the defenses in the Pac-12 with the weapons they have in Dillingham’s scheme. The big questions will come on the other side of the ball and if Brian Ward can push this team to be more aggressive and get this offense on the field more often.
CAL GOLDEN BEARS
Once again another down year for Justin Wilcox in 2022. Arizona and Stanford were their only P5 wins last year and they also lost to Colorado. Wilcox is now 30-36 in seven years and hasn’t had a winning season since 2019.
Cal, actually surprisingly enough threw the ball more than anyone in the conference behind Plummer but only put up 24 points per game. Offense is gonna try to get back on track with Jake Spavital returning at OC and some transfer quarterbacks, Sam Jackson who was third string at TCU and Ben Finley from NC State. Jaydn Ott is back at RB after over 800 yards as a freshman and some receiving targets are back, but they do lose J Michael Sturdivant who transferred down to UCLA. Last thing on offense… this OL was one of the worst in the conference. Sam Jackson should be able to help with those issues as the kid has absolute wheel.
Much like Arizona this team just got shredded with yards death by papercuts style and a lot like Arizona will have 5 transfers starting. They were actually pretty good at getting off the field when they got to third down but the front not getting pressure on the quarterback constantly led to opposing teams getting early first downs.
Cal is kind of in the wilderness at this point. With everything going on realignment wise they will have to stay focused and need major improvements on both sides of the ball. Sam Jackson could be a star in the making and this team should get better but if they don’t Wilcox may be looking for a new job.
Colorado Buffaloes
Well…. this is awkward.
If you’re looking for a team that made a huge splash heading into the 2023 season, look no further than Boulder. After a disastrous, yet on-brand, 1-11 season, the Buffs cleaned house on a level as yet unseen in the modern CFB era. Not only did they bring on the high profile hire of the offseason in Primetime himself, Deion Sanders, but they’ve turned over a massive part of their roster. This shouldn’t have surprised anybody, as Sanders made no secret of how he was going to put his roster together; in his own words, “I’m bringing my luggage with me, and it’s Louis.”
What followed was a mass exodus of players that Deion felt didn’t make the cut. Back in April, Max Olson put some shocking numbers out there. Of the 83 scholarship players that were on the team at the start of last season, only 23 were still on the team come the end of spring ball.
We do really like the Sean Lewis hire at offensive coordinator. Typically these days with coaches moving and players going with them you see a little bit more of an immediate impact so we could see that from Jack Bailey and Savion Washington on the offensive line. Alton McKaskill was a stud for Houston at RB in 2021, but didn’t get to play last year due to injury. Jimmy Horn Jr. and Xavier Weaver are major upgrades from what the team had at WR last year, plus you’re still getting Travis Hunter. In our eyes Shedeur should be able to still perform but obviously not at the same ridiculous numbers he put up at Jackson State. They just had so much more raw talent on those rosters than any other team they played.
The defense was by far the worst in the P5 last year. It’s hard to gauge what will happen but Charles Kelly should whip them into shape pretty quick. Really scary stuff at the corner spot though as you’ll have Cormani McClain having to come in and start right away and it sounds like right now that Travis Hunter will have to play on both sides of the ball. Probably going to be some really tough sledding in the best quarterback conference in the nation.
Exciting things in Boulder for sure and while it may not look like it at the end of the year when you see the record this team will make some significant improvement before heading off to the Big 12. The schedule this year is just absolutely insane.
Oregon Ducks
It was year one for Dan Lanning and the Ducks finished the season off with a 10-3 record. Starting the year off with a blowout loss to UGA, you would have never thought this team would have been able to get to 10 wins so good on Lanning to accomplish that. The offense was great behind now Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham calling the plays. He did have the best offensive line in the nation being able to keep Bo Nix upright. They were among the best in the nation at possession, rushing the ball, getting first downs early, and getting first downs when they did get to third down. This year Will Stein will be calling the offense and he has a ton of weapons to work with. Stein comes over from UTSA where he helped the Road Runners to the 12th overall total offense in 2022. Obviously Bo Nix is back and Bucky Irving is one of the most explosive running backs in the nation and will be back after a 1,000 yard rushing season so the backfield is fine. Troy Franklin is really the only weapon out wide that returns after an almost 900 yard receiving season and is a great intermediate to deep threat. They did get him some help though with Tez Johnson from Troy and Traeshon Holden from Alabama. This offensive line did lose almost everything so that remains to be seen how it’s affected but the new starters all saw snaps last year and there are some transfers.
The defense on the other hand was just not very good. Oregon was the worst in the conference as far as getting tackles for loss and couldn’t get off the field on third downs. If there was any bright spot for this defense it was the secondary with Christian Gonzalez leading the group. Now the secondary gave up a ton of yards but you can’t blame them when the other team has literally all day to throw the ball. After year one Lanning knew he had to make some changes and we have a lot of guys that moved on from the program but a lot of talented transfers coming in as well. Brandon Dorlus is back on one side of the defensive line and South Carolina transfer Jordan Burch will be lining up opposite so edge should look better. Casey Rogers will still be plugging up the middle of the line to help those two out as well. Even with Justin Flowe transferring out (it was time), Jeffrey Bassa and Mase Funa are back at linebacker, plus Jestin Jacobs is in from Iowa to help the unit. The secondary is all brand new for the most part but some guys like Trikweze Bridges are back and will still get playing time. Kyree Jackson is in from Bama, Tysheem Johnson is in from Ole Miss, Evan Williams is in from Fresno, and Nikko Reed is in from Colorado.
This upcoming year we’ll see if Lanning can take this team another step forward. He has the quarterback but that same quarterback had some really tough years at Auburn when he was constantly pressured and this new unit is unproven. Oregon spits out good lineman all the time so I’m not concerned. The real factor to this team taking another step forward is this defense. They have to get some sacks and create some pressure if they are going to have a successful season.
Oregon State Beavers
2022 was the first time the Beavs hit ten wins since 2006. Jonathan Smith is a fan favorite and is building something really nice both culture wise and on the field. A rare ground and pound, play defense team here in this conference made Oregon State a ton of fun to watch.
The offense clicked in their own way last year behind a strong offensive line and run game. Ben Gulbranson played totally fine but if they had just a little better QB play last year they probably would have beat USC or Washington. Five things to look ahead for this year on the offensive side of the ball. First, four of the OL are back and the unit should be really strong once again. Second, DJ Uiagalelei transfers in and is the most talented quarterback the program has ever had. No knocks to Sean Mannion or Derek Anderson there but it’s true. Third, freshman All-American Damian Martinez is back at running back after finishing the year with six straight 100 yard rushing games. Fourth, they lost some talent at WR and Silas Bolden and Anthony Gould will truly have to make plays out wide now. Both were amazing as return specialists last year and earned All Pac-12/All-American honors but it remains to be seen what they will do it’s actually creating explosiveness in the passing game. Fifth, two solid TEs coming back including Honorable Mention Freshman All-American Jack Velling.
The best defense in the PAC 12 last year… well, they lose their two top cornerbacks who both landed on NFL rosters and their top tackler Omar Speights transferred down to LSU. The only thing to really, really like is that the safeties room of Koran Oladapo and Akili Arnold is arguably the best in the conference, if not the nation. Sacks and TFL lacked and the secondary really carried them in 2022. Like this was the absolute bend and don’t break defense as they finished first in the nation in red zone defense but gave up the second most red zone drives in the conference.
Okay Oregon State fans. You thought I wasn’t gonna mention it, huh? The Oregon comeback was awesome and we’ll just leave it at that. We love Jonathan Smith and what is happening in Corvallis and the team seems focused regardless of everything going on with the conference being in flux. One last thing, nobody is talking about Jack “The Jackhammer” Colletto not being there anymore and how much he meant to this team over the past four years.
Stanford Cardinals
Stanford looked wildly out of whack in 2022, finishing 3-9 overall with their only conference win coming in a 15-14 barn burner against Arizona State. Tanner McKee was fun to watch but the team overall massively underperformed when you looked at what their talent level was. If you want to look at any positives, if you can find them, they did upset Notre Dame. The season ended with David Shaw finally stepping away from the program after a 12 year tenure where the Cardinal won three Pac-12 titles.
2023 marks the official start of the Troy Taylor era and he is known to be an offensive guru as a coach. The Cardinal offense was below average but not god awful in 2022. The OL was not good and 6 of those top 7 guys from last year aren’t returning. Running back has potential with EJ Smith but the WR room is not good by any means. For what feels like the first time in forever it feels like we don’t know who will be the starting quarterback in Palo Alto. Right now it looks like it’s a two man battle between Ari Patu and Ashton Daniels but they could be tested for the job from Syracuse transfer Justin Lamson and true freshman Myles Jackson as we get into camp.
The offense wasn’t great, the defense was far worse off and nobody in the secondary is back which is going to hurt in the best passing league in the country. Wisconsin OLB coach Bobby April is coming in as DC to try and get some pressure and get back to 2010’s Stanford level. The one shining player to watch this year is edge rusher David Bailey but that’s not enough to cover up all their holes as they got torn apart by the transfer portal.
The Troy Taylor Extraordinary Explosive Extravaganza (copyright pending) offense put up over 500 yards/40 PPG at Sacramento State last year. Stanford did not and don’t expect them to. He is started to put together the bones of an improving team. The team wasn’t active in portal acquisitions but he is crushing it on the recruiting trail right now. 2023 will be rough but as far as a long term outlook goes, we love the Troy Taylor hire and where this team is headed (The ACC maybe?).
UCLA Bruins
Great year for Chip but they’ve still in 2022 as UCLA finished the season 9-4. If you ignore the Sun Bowl blunder vs Pitt and a weird loss to Arizona this team was amazing.
2022 was great but there is still a lot of work to be done. Losing the UCLA all time offensive leader in DTR then throwing Zach Charbonnet on top of that is going to be hard to do but they might have a couple of guys that can. Just to be clear this was a very heavy rush team, 4th best in the nation to be exact. The line got destroyed and they also lost their top three targets on top of the backfield. They’ll be starting three transfers on the OL but both Jake Wiley and Spencer Holstege have seen over 1,200 snaps in their college career so it will be a “veteran” group. J Michael Sturdivant will fill the possession role out wide and was a big get as he was a top five wide receiver in the portal. TJ Harden got enough work last year at running back and Carson Steele coming over from Ball State has all the makings of a folklore hero kind of story. Fall camp is happening as we speak and there’s a three way competition at the quarterback spot. Those three are Ethan Garbers, Dante Moore, and Collin Schlee. Garbers has been with the program and has touched the field very little, Dante Moore was the five star literally everyone in the nation wanted, and Schlee has experience starting at Kent State.
It was another bend, don’t break style defense. UCLA was actually the only team in the FBS last year to not give up a 50+ yard play. The team did okay getting to the quarterback but not at stopping the run. The secondary will be totally fine as well this year and this defense should actually make improvements behind young and innovative DC D’Anton Lynn after working in the NFL as an assistant since 2015. It is scary as they’re going on their third defensive coordinator in as many years but the defensive unit is a veteran group and Lynn shouldn’t have trouble whipping them into shape.
It was Chip Kelly’s best season since he got to Westwood and the Bruins will look to keep improving. Defense should get better and the schemes almost always work on offense but the new starters in the backfield will ultimately be the deciding factor on how 2023 will go.
USC Trojans
Year one for USC is what you would call a success for Lincoln Riley. It was the same thing that he brought over from Oklahoma which is just an ass-load of offense and a quarterback winning the Heisman. It was a step forward without a doubt from where they were and Caleb Williams is back to try to repeat last year and vault this team to the College Football Playoff. Williams was absolutely phenomenal in executing the offense last year with weapons like Travis Dye, Austin Jones, Jordan Addison, Mario Williams, Brandan Rice, and Tahj Washington. Travis Dye ended the season early with an injury but is on the Jets now and Jordan Addison was a first round selection of the Vikings. Everyone else is back plus they’ve added Dorian Singer from Arizona, and the Trojans have Zachariah Branch who was the number one overall wide receiver in the class of 2023. The offensive line has some work to do but they reloaded through the portal with Michael Tarquin from Florida, Emmanuel Pregnon from Wyoming, and Jarrett Kingston from Washington State. Also look for tight end Lake McRee to get into the mix offensively as well as true freshman and number one tight end in the 2023 class and absolute stud, Duce Robinson.
Defense was the same old, sad song for Alex Grinch. They gave up yards, they didn’t get off the field on third downs, and really the only thing they did well was get to the quarterback. If it wasn’t for them forcing an absolutely insane 29 turnovers, this team probably wouldn’t have won 11 games. It’s going to be a whole new Trojans defense though. The only returning player up front is linebacker Eric Gentry who was a tackle and turnover machine last year… everyone else is new. The line will add Lucas Anthony (A&M), Kyron Barrs (Arizona), Jamil Muhammad (Georgia Southern), and last but not least, Bear Alexander (UGA). At linebacker the team added Mason Cobb from Oklahoma State, who was a second team selection in the Big 12 last year and will look to be the defensive quarterback. The secondary is returning almost everyone but they do bring in Christian Roland-Wallace from Arizona to help out in coverage.
Offense for Lincoln Riley has never been an issue and it shouldn’t be in 2023. Caleb Williams will get his and his mobility should hide any issues on the offensive line if they do have issues. It’s time for Alex Grinch to show that he can annually have a good defense on the field. His defenses have only been inside the top sixty one time in four years as a coordinator and the USC team is loaded with talent this year so there really is no excuse.
Utah Utes
Utah went 10-4 in 2022 but it was disappointing considering the expectation was for the Utes to make it to the College Football Playoff. It started out with a tough road loss in Gainesville and a road loss at Oregon a couple weeks later ended the hope of a playoff appearance. They did win the conference for the second year in a row to make it to the Rose Bowl (L – Penn State) but it still felt a little underwhelming. Utah is one of a very few schools involved in a ground and pound then play defense kind of game that is uncommon out west. Cam Rising is back or should be back soon for his final year and the offensive line is strong in front of him returning four starters. He will miss top target Dalton Kincaid but Brant Kuithe is back from injury to fill the tight end spot for his sixth and final year. A couple wide outs are back with Devaughn Vele and Money Parks, but wide receiver isn’t typically the teams strength. The surprise breakout star of last year was converted quarterback to running back Ja’Quinden Jackson who finished off the last six games with some 100 yard performances to go with a average of 6.8 yards per carry. The job is all Jackson’s this year and he will look to take full advantage of the opportunity.
Kyle Whittingham is Mr. Consistent of college football and Morgan Scalley has been there with him for a while now living up to that same mantra on defense. This defense always gets pressure, controls the line, gets off the field, forces turnovers, and doesn’t give up damn yards. 2022 was the same by the way. The line consists of dudes with tons of experience and results to go with it as almost everyone had some sort of honors last year and the linebacker unit is much of the same. The only looming question is the secondary, which must reload after losing Clark Phillips III and RJ Hubert.
Utah is right back at it. They’ll be battling for a conference title and looking to actually make it to the playoff this year. They’re fully loaded with lots of talent again and it will be same old, same old for Utah at the minimum. The only question is can they actually take another step forward.
Washington Huskies
The Huskies went 4-8 in 2021, fired Jimmy Lake after 9 games and then hired Kalen DeBoer. 2022, in year one, they racked up 11 wins and finished up the season with a win over Texas in the Alamo Bowl.
Offensively the Huskies boomed under Ryan Grubb with Michael Penix at QB. The offensive line was unreal at keeping Penix upright, they passed the ball way more than they ran it and still had over 30 rushing touchdowns, and were the best team at converting 3rd downs in the entire nation. The line returns both tackles for 2023, neither gave up a sack in 2022, and both have been named to the Outland Trophy watch list. The interior is being refilled but it’s a room of guys that all played in games last year. Odunze, McMillan, and Polk are all back at WR so Penix still has all of his targets. The only big question is can Cameron Davis step up at RB full time after Wayne Taulapapa’s one year stint in the role. Also, it really shows where they’re headed as a program after Grubb came back when he was the top choice to go to Alabama for the same job.
The defense was another story, well in the secondary at least. They’re very strong up front with guys like Braden Trice and Zion Tupuola-Fetui at the edge and Tuli Letuligasenoa in the middle. Edefan Ulofoshio is back at LB to help bolster the LB core after missing almost all of last year to surgery. Jabbar Muhammad is coming over to help at CB as a member of the Oklahoma State exodus and is a very good player.
It’s crazy to say that an offense can score even more than they did last year when that team scored almost 40 points per game but the Huskies look primed to be able to do so with a year in the Grubb/DeBoer system and all of the returning talent. This team only punted the ball 23 times last year… Also look for the defense to take a step forward this year in the secondary as they’ll welcome the new additions, Ulofoshio at linebacker full time, and will get a lot of help from the front four. BigPenixEnergy is alive and well in 2023.
Washington State Cougars
It was a 7-6 year for Washington State in their first season under Jake Dickert. There was a lot of hype going into the season for Cameron Ward after he transferred over from Incarnate Word and for what feels like the first time in history, their defense actually outperformed the offense. It’s not his fault entirely, actually almost all of the blame can be put on the offensive line. We talked about how bad the Cal offensive line was and the Wazzu line was actually worse. Trying to fix the offense for 2023 comes with a splash, a young one. That’s right, former Western Kentucky offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, only 27 years young is in Pullman now after Eric Morris left to be the head coach at North Texas. Arbuckle coached the Hilltoppers up to a top 10 total offense last year and look for the offense to be a lot more aggressive this year as the Cougars. Arbuckle and now Texas Tech offensive coordinator both coached Bailey Zappe in high school and moved up straight to the FBS level and haven’t looked back since. Don’t look for this team to start rushing the ball more as they’ll stick with their air raid ways but when they do expect Nakia Watson to pick up a good chunk of yards. Unfortunately, all of the wide receiver weapons are gone but they’ve reloaded through the portal. Kyle Williams and Josh Kelly both will take a step up in level from the Mountain West but we’re excited to see how DT Sheffield does moving up from JUCO after he was the 4th highest rated receiver in the class.
Last year the defense was amongst the worst in the conference as far as giving up yards through the air. Once again it was a bend, don’t break defense and they were able to usually get off the field on 3rd downs thanks to a strong front 7. Do you want the good or the bad first? Okay, the good it is. Two 2nd Team All Pac-12 edge rushers are returning for their 6th seasons in Ron Stone Jr. and Brennan Jackson. The duo led a front seven unit that created tons of problems for teams in 2022. The bad news is pretty much everyone is gone besides Jaden Hicks and Chau Smith-Wade in the secondary to help them out. Linebacker Francisco Mauigoa transferred down to Miami to be with his brother and they are trying to refill at the linebacker with two transfers. Ahmad McCullough is in from Maryland and Devin Richardson is in from Texas. McCullough has more of a track record than Richardson but both are coming from good P5 programs.
It’s all going to come down to if Ward can take a step forward this year after he really looked like he struggled to adapt to the new fast pace of the Pac-12. His legs should help him a little more if the offensive line doesn’t get any better and with Arbuckle calling the plays he’ll have to be more accurate down field. Defense looks primed to have another really good season with their returning talent but it’s a big question if the new guys will be able to step in and make an impact.
Betting Guide
That’s it for the Pac-12(4 RIPIP). Take what you will but hopefully it helps each and every one of you throughout the year. This conference is loaded and we expect it to be highly competitive so we tried to find you guys the best possible lines out there.
Don’t Touch It
Cal Golden Bears O/U 5 Wins (DraftKings) O/U 5.5 Wins (FanDuel)
Too much is unknown with Cal this year. They’ve got a new quarterback who could be a stud, new coordinators, and a TOUGH schedule. Cal is heading to North Texas which is no easy feat and will host another mystery in Auburn at home. The only sure wins on the schedule are Idaho and Stanford and just not confident that they can win their toss ups with Arizona State and Washington State or if they will be able to pull of any upsets against the top of the conference.
Colorado Buffaloes O/U 3.5 Wins (DraftKings and FanDuel)
The team is full of transfers and they have an absolutely brutal schedule. We’re here for the best reality television show on TV but not sure if Coach Prime will be able to get to four wins this year with the turnover and if the transfers will play up to their new competition.
USC Trojans O/U 10 Wins (DraftKings) O/U 9.5 Wins (FanDuel)
This team will be good no doubt and the defense should be better. All the weapons are back but their schedule is backloaded to all hell. They’re going to start off 5-0 against San Jose State, Nevada, Stanford, Arizona State, and Colorado. The stretch of Notre Dame, Utah, Cal, Washington, Oregon, and UCLA is just absolutely brutal and we feel 10 is way more likely than 9 but the juice on the 9.5 is not worth the squeeze.
Utah Utes O/U 8.5 Wins (DraftKings and FanDuel)
This team does not lose at home, they haven’t in three years but this is the year they probably will drop one to Oregon or UCLA at home. The talent is there but going on the road early to Baylor, Oregon State, USC, and Washington may be too much. We do feel eight is more likely than nine if you want to lay it but you’re paying for the juice.
Washington Huskies O/U 9.5 Wins (DraftKings and FanDuel)
The juice is on the under but we still feel really confident in this team. They do have some tough matchups with Boise State and Michigan State early on. If they do drop one to either of those or to Oregon in week seven we’re not sure how they’ll be able to rebound down the stretch. Going to USC, then Utah at home, and going to Corvallis has us super worried. It’s just not a sure thing but this is our favorite team in the conference this year.
Washington State Cougars O/U 6.5 Wins (DraftKings and FanDuel)
This team does get Arizona, ASU, Stanford, Cal, and Colorado in conference play, and should win a couple of their non-conference games against Northern Colorado and Colorado State. They are not beating Wisconsin and the other high tier teams in the conference. We don’t feel comfortable with them beating most of the teams they’ll be favored against and the juice is pretty high on the under.
Season Plays
Arizona Wildcats O/U 4.5 – Over 4.5 Wins (-176 on FanDuel)
They should beat NAU, UTEP, and Stanford early and that’s three right there. Later on is Colorado and that will get Zona to 4. This team will not beat Mississippi State in Starkville and they get Washington, USC, and Utah so we’re chalking those up as losses. We do feel they’ll be able to get one more against Washington State, Oregon State, UCLA, or Arizona State to get them up to 5 though. Even with the juice it feels super safe.
Arizona State Sun Devils O/U 5 – Under 5 Wins (-160 on DraftKings)
Southern Utah, Fresno, Colorado gets you to three in the first five weeks and we also feel they could really pull off the upset in Stillwater as well. Even if you push they only need one more and think ASU can get one or all against Cal, Washington State, or Arizona. Also, seven games at home for the Sun Devils this year.
Oregon Ducks O/U 9.5 – Under 9.5 Wins (-120 on DraftKings)
They don’t have to go to Atlanta to play UGA this year but they do have to go to Lubbock to play Texas Tech. We do think that is a loss but they will start 4-1 before a bye to go into their rivalry game at Washington. They will beat Washington State, Cal, and ASU but the back half of the schedule is brutal with Utah, USC, and Oregon State. The line is just set up for them to win 8 or 9 this year.
Oregon State Beavers O/U 8.5 – Under 8.5 Wins (-140 on DraftKings)
This team should have five sure wins and we really do like them. We’re confident that this teams losses on defense won’t allow them to finish with the red zone success that they saw last year. Honestly, betting against myself here but 8-4 is more likely than anything else.
Stanford Cardinal O/U 3 – Under 3 Wins (-160 on DraftKings)
This team is just all over the place. Talent isn’t there at the moment but we love Troy Taylor long term.
We’re not even sure if they’ll be able to beat Hawaii on the island playing at a damn soccer stadium or shut down Sacramento State. The juice is there for a reason and at the absolute worst they’re going to push 3. We just do not see four.
UCLA Bruins O/U 8.5 – Over 8.5 Wins (-115 on DraftKings)
Coastal Carolina is a big scare right away in week one but we’re confident this defense will take a step forward. Quarterback shouldn’t be a big issue in Chip Kelly’s offense and the schedule is super favorable for UCLA this year. Coastal Carolina, San Diego State, NC Central, Washington State, Stanford, Colorado, Arizona, ASU, and Cal get you to nine and even if they slip up against one of those teams they should be able to pull off one against Utah, Oregon State, or USC.
Michael Penix Jr. O/U 30.5 Passing Touchdowns – Over (-120 on DraftKings)
Lay it, this team is going to do everything they can to get Penix as many passing touchdowns as they can this year. They’re more likely to score more through the air this year after 34 touchdowns on the ground in 2022 with their explosiveness and success.
Troy Franklin O/U 7.5 Receiving Touchdowns – Under 7.5 (-110)
Oregon running the ball and volatility of Nix should limit some of Franklin’s explosive touchdowns we saw in 2022. He had three touchdowns over fifty yards last year and he won’t be able to replicate that with all the focus on him this year.
HOPE YOU ALL ENJOYED! BIG 10 AND SEC NEXT WEEK!
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