The NBA Draft is three and a half weeks away, but there are still plenty of betting markets to take advantage of while public information is still limited and experts continue to build out their mock drafts. We know that Victor Wembanyama is headed to the San Antonio Spurs, but where will the likes of Scoot Henderson, Brandon Miller, Amen and Ausar Thompson, and others wind up? This is where we can capitalize on uncertain betting markets using what we know already and how some of the top prospects will fit on some of the lucky NBA Lottery teams at the top of the draft order.
Be on the lookout for my NBA Mock Draft 1.0 coming out later this week, and if you don’t want to miss it, be sure to subscribe here for free and have it sent directly to your inbox! As more betting markets become available and more research is done, I will build out additional best bets, mock drafts, and a surplus of draft content in the coming weeks. Follow me on Twitter @AndyHHSports so you catch it all along with NBA Finals coverage over the next couple of weeks! Finally, with the introductions out of the way let’s jump right in!
#2 Overall – G, Scoot Henderson – G-League Ignite
(+110) – 1 Unit
In the fall of 2022 draft experts and basketball fans alike openly agreed that if Victor Wembanyama did not exist, Scoot Henderson would be the unanimous #1 overall selection in the 2023 NBA Draft. In fact, many people began to debate if he deserved shouts for the first-overall pick following the G-League Ignite’s game against Wembanyama’s Metropolitans 92 team in the fall that was broadcasted by ESPN. The dynamic guard has drawn comparisons to some of the NBA’s most freakishly athletic guards like Derrick Rose and Russell Westbrook which is high praise for a kid on the front half of 19 years of age.
However, once Brandon Miller came onto the scene with Alabama this year, things became up for debate on who deserves the right to be selected #2 overall. In a league that highly values do-it-all forwards who can score the ball, create plays, and defend at an elite level, Brandon Miller is seen as what many teams want but struggle to find. The Hornets received the second overall pick in the NBA Draft Lottery a couple of weeks ago, and with All-Star LaMelo Ball leading the franchise many have already ruled out Scoot heading to Charlotte. The betting odds reflect that with Miller edging out Scoot anywhere from -110 to -140 as the favorite to land with the Hornets.
Why would the Hornets not select the best available player in Scoot Henderson though? When you are a franchise that is historically bad and coming off a very unfavorable season, wouldn’t it make sense to shoot for the stars and take Scoot Henderson? If the Hornets end up moving off of Terry Rozier down the road, their next best two-guard would be James Bouknight, Bryce McGowens, or Dennis Smith Jr. if they don’t want him to be the backup point guard. Wouldn’t it make more sense to bring in Scoot Henderson and let him and LaMelo figure each other out with the possibility of having the best young backcourt in the NBA?
You already have guys like Cody Martin, Gordon Hayward, Kelly Oubre, and PJ Washington at the forward spots, with the possibility of Miles Bridges coming back following his season away from the league due to legal trouble. With Bridges already being a PR nightmare, does Charlotte really want to bring on Brandon Miller who also has his own legal baggage that weighed down Alabama at times last season? I believe that as long as the franchise makes it clear to LaMelo that he is still their guy and they want to give him what could be an absolutely lethal combo in the backcourt with Scoot, I believe that Ball would be open to the idea and he has done nothing in the past to indicate he’d have a bad attitude or be a bad teammate as a result.
With the uncertainty still in the air on which way Charlotte goes, getting Scoot at plus money, when he was so heavily favored to go second overall in the fall, seems like a great value grab. The Hornets are not in a position to draft for the best fit, and even if they do look at this from a best-fit standpoint, I think Scoot makes way more sense than Miller for this struggling franchise. LaMelo has had his issues with injuries already the last two seasons, but when healthy he has been shooting the three ball like crazy which opens up plenty of possibilities for Scoot to get him more open looks as he facilitates the offense. Let’s grab the value now with Scoot at second-overall, and watch to see how well Charlotte contains their secret of who they take at number two, which is where the draft begins this June.
#4 Overall – G/F, Amen Thompson – Overtime Elite
(-150) – 1.5 Units
The Thompson twins have been on the radar of basketball nerds and recruitment board fans for a long time, as these two ridiculous athletes have shown that the sky is the limit for what they can do with a basketball. My biggest criticism and question marks for both Amen and Ausar comes from how poor their shooting was against subpar competition with Overtime Elite, and I will be breaking that down more in my Mock Draft 1.0 coming out this week. For now, I believe that there are a number of reasons to believe Amen is heading to the Houston Rockets at fourth overall, and now is the time to bet on it before the number continues to move.
Amen Thompson has taken the lead over his twin brother as the preferred basketball prospect for a number of reasons. Amen sees the floor differently than most, and is able to pick out where the play is and create accordingly at a very quick pace. His dribbling is outstanding and he moves lightning fast which is a fascinating sight to see considering his length paired with his 6-foot-7-inch frame. Thompson is already a versatile defender that applies pressure on the ball and challenges opponents in the paint or out wide. His rebounding is spectacular and often leads to quick passes as I touched on before as Thompson is very creative and resourceful with the ball.
The biggest knock on both Thompson brothers continues to be their shooting. But does he really need to shoot the ball a lot on a team with Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, and Jabari Smith Jr.? In fact, I think a creator is exactly what this team needs, as Porter Jr. and Green did not give a lot of help to their new teammate Smith last season and it showed. Their offense was much more creative when Alperen Sengun was leading the way as their creative center of sorts while others were out injured, so I can only imagine what Amen Thompson can do in that role for the Rockets. Pairing Amen with new head coach Ime Udoka who is very defensive-minded will only add to how versatile the 20-year-old can be, as we saw how night and day the Celtics defense has been before and after Udoka was at the helm.
Reports are already beginning to surface that the Rockets are “enamored” with Amen Thompson, and it is pretty clear that even if the Blazers move off of the third overall pick it will be to a team that wants either Scoot Henderson or Brandon Miller. Amen headlines the “third tier” of guys in the 2023 NBA Draft, and is a great fit in on a Houston team that needs to continue to fire on high-upside prospects even if the shooting is a massive question mark. Everything else is there for Thompson who won’t have to shoot as much due to his new Rockets teammates already being a little too excited to shoot the ball. Jump on this value now before the line continues to move, as Amen was only -125 in some betting markets last week at this spot!
#5 Overall – F, Cam Whitmore – Villanova
(+250) – 1 Unit
Draft Position: Over 5.5 (-140) – 1 Unit
With early NBA Draft betting lines come several opportunities to hedge your bets while information is still limited. I love Cam Whitmore in this spot to head to the Detroit Pistons who could use a dynamic scorer with star potential, but why not hedge the bet while his draft position juice is not too expensive? I have covered above why Scoot, Miller, and Amen should round out the Top 4, so at the fifth-overall pick there are a lot of question marks due to the plethora of options for the Pistons.
I do not believe the Pistons will take a shot on Ausar Thompson at fifth overall as although Ausar is an athletic freak like his brother, Detroit desperately needs scoring and we know Thompson is not going to be able to provide that. That leaves Detroit with their pick of forwards from Whitmore, Taylor Hendricks, and Jarace Walker. Right now Walker from the University of Houston has a draft position over/under of 6.5, with Taylor Hendricks sitting at 8.5. Both of them are heavily juiced to the under, but with Anthony Black likely heading to Washington at eight, and Ausar Thompson still on the board, somebody has to fall out.
I do not believe Hendricks fits into Detroit as well as Whitmore or Walker, with Detroit already jam-packed with big men. After trading away Saddiq Bey to the Hawks, and Bojan Bogdanovich being an excellent trade piece this season or next, the Pistons could use Whitmore’s strong finishing ability under the basket as well as stellar shooting (34.3% from 3). The physical 6’6″ wing weighs in at 235 lbs and can truck through defenders and snag steals on the other end too (1.4 steals per game). Detroit was a bottom-five team in defensive efficiency last season, so adding Whitmore to the roster will help begin to set the tone for a young team defensively.
Finally, if you don’t agree with Whitmore going at fifth overall, there are a number of ways to capitalize on Ausar or Walker in this spot and hedge your bet with their draft position over/under’s as well. I will have more on Whitmore in my Mock Draft 1.0 coming out this week, so stay tuned for that and much more!
G, Anthony Black – Arkansas
Draft Position Under 8.5 (-170) – 1 Unit
Anthony Black is my favorite player to land with the Washington Wizards. The Wiz have been without a legitimate point guard not named Russell Westbrook since John Wall left (sorry Morris and Dinwiddie!). I absolutely love big guards that can use their size to defend and create, and Black’s 6’6″ 210 lbs frame fits that build to a tee. The pressure is off for Black to have to score, as you’ve got Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis who need a floor general to help pave unique ways for them to score that isn’t just playing iso ball.
Black is already solid at the pick-and-roll which is a large benefit for one of the NBA’s most beloved offensive play starters, and Black’s vision will help him create more than just simple mismatches from it. Not only does Anthony do a great job facilitating the offense, but also he is not afraid to drive to the bucket and has a solid touch around the rim when he does. If he isn’t scoring under the rim he is drawing fouls which is a welcome sight for the Wizards who ranked in the bottom third of the league in free throws attempted per game.
The cons of Black’s game are his inability to create his own space and his inferior shooting ability off the dribble. I think being placed on a Wizards team with Beal, Kristaps, and potentially Kuzma would help mask Anthony’s inefficiencies and allow his true strengths to shine. Black also has a knack for snagging steals, averaging an astounding 2.1 steals per game with the Razorbacks. I am not huge on placing wagers with this much juice, but I am extremely confident that this price will continue to get more and more expensive as more news comes out throughout the next few weeks about the draft process. Getting in early on this one, as I believe the Wizards absolutely have to snag Black if he is still available at 8 overall!
