English Premier League Futures, Season Props, & Betting Preview

Football fans rejoice – the English Premier League returns this Friday, August 11 and there is plenty of betting action to be had across England.

The wait is over! The English Premier League is back with a full slate this weekend and I could not be more excited. Manchester City will look to continue their campaign of dominance over the past three seasons. However, they will not find it as easy to dominate the league this season with clubs like Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea, and Manchester United restocked and ready to go for the next nine months. Newcastle have established themselves as the newest threat to Tottenham or Chelsea’s spot in the Big 6, while clubs like Brighton & Hove Albion, Brentford, and Aston Villa surprised many last season with how tough they were to beat.

Has Man City done enough this summer transfer window to fend off title challengers? I won’t be answering that today, but I do have answers to that here from my good friend Schwartz and how you can bet on it. What I will be answering today has a lot to do with goal scoring and where I believe we can all find some value in the futures, season props, and other betting markets. There are plenty of Premier League bets to be had as August unfolds, and I can’t wait to dive into all of them.

Before I begin, be sure to follow me on Twitter @AndyHHSports for soccer content like this as well as football and basketball as the fall gets started. You won’t want to miss any of our articles in the coming weeks as the sports world begins with plenty of action again, so be sure to subscribe here as well. With that out of the way, let’s get started!

Will Newcastle United continue where they left off?

Newcastle have been the new kids on the block at the top of the table in England with their newfound wealth of spending money thanks to the Saudi Arabian-backed Public Investment Fund. The Toons have had a net spend of over £340M since the 2021/2022 season, and as a result, have found themselves jumping from near-relegation to playing in the Champions League. This summer transfer window has seen them add Harvey Barnes, Sandro Tonali, and soon Tino Livramento to continue building on a young foundation of high-potential players.

The residents of St. James Park tied Manchester City in losses and goals allowed at 5 and 33 respectively. To put this into perspective, Arsenal and United both allowed ten more goals last season to finish tied for second least allowed. The Magpies were unable to finish higher in the table because of their league-leading 14 draws which I think will improve into more wins this upcoming season. If Newcastle can get more production from Alexander Isak, Anthony Gordon, and now Harvey Barnes, they could easily get their goal-scoring mark higher than 68 and start to climb even higher up the table.

Alexander Isak only started 17 of Newcastle’s matches last season, which puts the ten-goal season from the 70 million Euro man into perspective. The Swedish international should get ample opportunities in front of the goal with his midfield counterparts able to create more for him now that they have an anchor in Sandro Tonali at CDM. I think there is no reason to believe Isak takes the next step next season and goes over his total goals at BetUS of 12.5 in the Premier League this upcoming campaign.

I also believe that Newcastle is severely underpriced to be the winner of England minus the Big 6 and the line movement over the last month proves that. You can grab Newcastle to be the best non-Big 6 team at -150 on most sportsbooks, and I don’t mind laying the juice big time on that. Yes, there were multiple teams in Brighton, Villa, and Brentford that had great seasons last year. However, these guys have nowhere near the pockets, nor the depth that Newcastle now possesses due to the Saudi Arabians that continue to overtake world football.

This group slowly but surely has built up a rotation of players that at their best can rival the best of the best in the Big 6, and when stretched thin will still look much better than the rest of their former mid-table foes. Brighton and Villa are certainly good hedges if you do feel like they could threaten Newcastle for this spot, but I do not feel the need to throw insurance on this one when Newcastle are already better than Tottenham, Chelsea, and potentially Manchester United.

Newcastle lost last season’s Carabao Cup Final in February to Manchester United in a game they had to start their third-string keeper Loris Karius in, and I believe the FA Cup or Carabao Cup is absolutely within reach for this group once again this season. The Champions League presents a new challenge for this group, and one could argue that this may stretch them thin if they make it out of the group stages. However, with this much talent and massive amounts invested into this club, the season could be considered a failure without a trophy in hand come June. I love the odds for Newcastle to win a trophy this season at +250, with a lot of chances coming up to win silverware in England.

Newcastle fans – your long drought for silverware will end in 2024.

Best Bets:
– Alexander Isak over 12.5 EPL Goals (-130) – 1 Unit
– Newcastle to win England minus Big Six (-150) – 2 Units
– Newcastle to win a trophy this season (+250) – 1 Unit

Can Brighton keep up last season’s pace?

Brighton & Hove Albion had a spectacular 2022/2023 Premier League campaign finishing the season in sixth place and qualifying for the Europa League this year. The Seagulls had their best season yet since being promoted to the Premier League back in 2017 and will look to add to it despite the exit of last season’s top goal scorer Alexis Mac Allister to Liverpool. There is still plenty to be excited about with Kaoru Mitoma, Solly March, and Evan Ferguson leading the attack for Brighton, but the possible transfer of Moises Caicedo still remains a big question mark and would certainly be a major blow to the squad this season.

Roberto De Zerbi has proven to be a spectacular manager for a side that had Graham Potter taken from them by Chelsea in September of last year. De Zerbi’s success gives Brighton fans hope that there could be another successful season on the way. I believe this optimism is absolutely valid, but also believe Brighton’s goal total for this season sits too high at 63.5.

The Seagulls smashed this number in 2022/2023 with 72 goals scored. However, the exit of Alexis Mac Allister not only hurts their goal output but also puts a massive dent in the offensive creativity of this team. This group now lacks a creative midfielder like Mac Allister and has a plethora of midfielders that are a bit more defensive-minded. The main optimism for this group comes from their young star in the making in Ferguson.

Evan Ferguson is still very young, as the Irishman turns 19 in October, yet will be trusted to lead the charge at striker for this group next season. He can do it, but will definitely need time to grow and some assistance getting the ball in dangerous areas. On the wings, I am not as confident that March and Mitoma can take that next step in becoming double-digit goal scorers in the Premier League this season with a lack of help from their midfield. The additions of James Milner and Mahmoud Dahoud don’t really jump off the page in regards to helping out an attack that was well distributed in goal-scoring last season where everyone got their fair share.

Finally, it was quite a weird season in the Premier League last year. With everyone in the Big 6 bolstering some aspect of their defense besides Liverpool, I expect Brighton to regress against the top teams a bit. Brighton had an incredible run against top opposition in the Premier League by beating Arsenal once, drawing and defeating Liverpool, and doing the double over Manchester United and Chelsea. Mix in an end-of-season draw against City, and you’ve got one of the best non-Big 6 resumes against the Big 6 in recent memory.

If Brighton are able to score 23 goals again against the Big 6 this upcoming season, I will take my loss and give a toast to the Seagulls. Regression is on the way in goal-scoring for Brighton, but hopefully not a lack of success for a fun-to-watch team.

Best Bet: Brighton Under 63.5 Goals in the Premier League (-110) – 1.25 Units

Can Liverpool continue their end-of-season form?

The Merseyside Reds disappointed last season finishing fifth-place in the league due in large part to a lack of personnel for the recently implemented system that Jurgen Klopp rolled out in the Spring of 2022. With less than a quarter left in the Premier League last season, Jurgen once again made a change by implementing his own adaptation of a 3-4-3 system with Trent Alexander-Arnold entering the midfield. Trent helped cover for the weaknesses Fabinho showed throughout the 2022-2023 campaign while also opening up an entire dimension of creativity up the middle with his world-class passing, likely earning him a permanent spot in the midfield moving forward.

With this change, Liverpool rattled off 9 unbeaten matches in a row to close out the Premier League campaign, with a six-match win streak in the middle of it before ending in back-to-back draws. Jurgen Klopp had to get creative in order to supplement his wealth of attacking options in Mohamed Salah, Cody Gakpo, Luis Diaz, Diogo Jota, and Darwin Nunez. Roberto Firmino even came in for a flashback to the False 9 of 2016 through 2021, and in my mind, this helped show that the midfield personnel on hand still needed to be transitioned to the new system as the attacking options needed more support as soon as possible. Liverpool have addressed the lack of creativity in the midfield by signing Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai, but have a new problem on their hands with no defensive midfielders on the roster as Henderson and Fabinho departed for Saudi Arabia.

If Liverpool can address their needs of missing a capable number 6 while adding an additional depth option at center back this team could be set for a successful run in the Premier League after failing to do so last season. However, we know that Fenway Sports Group do not buy for needs that exist immediately and need the point pounded into their heads for months on end before making a move. I won’t get my hopes up that the American owners turn their attention back to Liverpool while the Red Sox sit four-and-a-half games back from a Wild Card spot. Jokes aside, it remains to be seen if Romeo Lavia can be a capable 6 for this side if Liverpool brings him in, and the defense still looks a bit shaky in preseason which is not the most reassuring sight to see.

The certainty this season is that the offense finally has multiple ways of working and firing on all cylinders. Thiago and Luis Diaz are healthy once again which is exciting as both players were instrumental in the offensive pivot we saw in 2022 on the left-hand side when crosses from Andy Robertson and Trent ran stale. Mo Salah totaled 2 goals and 7 assists during the preseason as he has guys getting him the ball from the midfield while he formerly had to create for himself. Gakpo has picked up where he left off, and Darwin Nunez may have shaken the season-long yips for a guy who was previously the King of xG. Why am I rambling about the offense? Goals are coming ladies and gentlemen.

Liverpool scored 75 goals last season in what featured a 9-0 victory over Bournemouth and 7-0 thrashing of Manchester United. When you take out those 16 goals, Liverpool only averaged 1.64 goals in 36 matches compared to their 1.97 goals per match in all 38 games. This is the second-lowest goal total Liverpool have had since their 63-goal campaign in the 2015/2016 season, with 68 being the lowest in 2020/2021 since that time. I expect Mac Allister, Szoboszlai, and the addition of Thiago and Alexander-Arnold into the midfield creativity to get this offense firing on all cylinders.

Predicting who will have the most goal output besides Mo Salah will be a difficult task if the attack rotation stays healthy paired with a great midfield creating behind them. It is still unclear how much Gakpo and Darwin will rotate while Luis Diaz likely holds the edge over Diogo Jota on the left if Gakpo doesn’t start there while Nunez plays at striker. I believe if you want to dabble in goal totals, you may as well side with the entire squad or take fliers where you can. One of my favorite fliers is for Darwin Nunez to score 25 goals or more in the Premier League this season which you can find on BetUS at 18/1 odds.

The two goal totals I think have the most value lie with Cody Gakpo and Liverpool as a whole. Gakpo scored 9 goals in 14 matches in the Dutch league last season, and 7 goals in 17 starts for Liverpool following his Christmas-time transfer. Klopp gave Cody the nod as the second half of the season went along and Darwin Nunez’s form went downhill, while the attacking depth continued to pick up knocks here and there. Cody’s total is set at 11.5 goals in the Prem this season at -120, which is incredibly too low for a player that got over halfway there in close to half a season of Premier League caps.

Liverpool’s new system paired with a plethora of options to open up the attack allows you to feel good about the Reds going over 78.5 goals at -130 this season, surpassing a number they have gone over in 4 of their last 6 seasons. Even if injuries once again haunt Liverpool, the depth is finally there, paired with worthy personnel for the system that Klopp wants to run. Heavy metal football could very well be back and Liverpool could allow a lot of goals as well, but with this play, you don’t have to worry about how the defense fares or have uneasiness about if the Reds end up signing a DM or CB reinforcements. The Reds will be prioritizing the Premier League this year over any Cups or Europa League play, and outscoring the likes of Arsenal, City, and Newcastle will help get them closer to the ultimate prize.

Best Bets:
– Liverpool Over 78.5 Goals in the Premier League (-130) – 1.25 Units
– Cody Gakpo Over 11.5 Goals (-120) – 1.25 Units
– Darwin Nunez to score 25+ Goals in the Premier League (+1800) – 0.25 Units

THIS IS AN ARTICLE WRITTEN BY ANDY CHASE