EPL Week 1 Picks

This is an article written by Pat Taylor

The Premier League season has finally returned! My colleague, Andy, has you covered with an extensive preview on the entire season ahead of us. Today, I’ve got some short thoughts on my bets for the first weekend of the campaign along with one future! Let’s get to it:The Premier League season has finally returned! My colleague, Andy, has you covered with an extensive preview on the entire season ahead of us. Today, I’ve got some short thoughts on my bets for the first weekend of the campaign along with one future! Let’s get to it:The Premier League season has finally returned! My colleague, Andy, has you covered with an extensive preview on the entire season ahead of us. Today, I’ve got some short thoughts on my bets for the first weekend of the campaign along with one future! Let’s get to it:The Premier League season has finally returned! My colleague, Andy, has you covered with an extensive preview on the entire season ahead of us. Today, I’ve got some short thoughts on my bets for the first weekend of the campaign along with one future! Let’s get to it:The Premier League season has finally returned! My colleague, Andy, has you covered with an extensive preview on the entire season ahead of us. Today, I’ve got some short thoughts on my bets for the first weekend of the campaign along with one future! Let’s get to it:

Brighton-Luton Town, 10:00am ET, Saturday

The popular sentiment around this opening match and Luton as a whole, is that they will get absolutely torn apart in the Premier League. I do not disagree, either. The fairy tale story of the club is great and it should be one to watch all season but it feels like a story that could last a short time. Luton just do not have the quality you look for in a squad if you want to stay up in the Premier League, plain and simple. For Brighton, they return in their first full season under Roberto De  Zerbi, in what should be a fantastic campaign by their standards. The Gulls will certainly be thinking they could be in a European spot by season’s end, especially with the quality they have. The losses of MacAllister and Sanchez (and rumored departure of Caicedo) certainly hurt but they have dove into the transfer market with smart buys. Joao Pedro at forward (who scored a brace vs Luton Town last season) and the addition of Verbruggen to replace Sanchez as keeper, should reap benefits. Brighton own one of the best scouting departments and academies in England so its best not to start doubting them now. For me, there is only one place to go. Brighton -1.5 goals on the spread is my favorite play of the weekend. 

Everton-Fulham, 10:00am ET, Saturday

Everton and Fulham come into the 1st match of the season at Goodison Park with not much to be excited for, all things considered. Everton have key injuries to playmakers, Dwight McNeil and Dominic Calvert-Lewin. For Fulham, they will feel quite a bit of instability as rumors swirl around the future of talismanic striker Aleksandar Mitrovic. The addition of Raul Jimenez from Wolves could be of help at the striker position, but he is a player who has sustained plenty of injuries throughout his career so how well will he hold up? All this to say, the question marks and lack of improvements in the summer lead me to believe there could be a severe lack of attacking threat in front of goal. Everton scored the least amount of goals at home of any club in the league last season at 16, 3 less than the next team. Any Sean Dyche managed team will be well set up behind the ball and limit the amount of chances the other side gets. Fulham were bottom half of the table in xG last season away from home, and that probably will not improve. The under is a bit juiced at -120 but U2.5 goals in this one is the play.

Manchester United-Wolves, 3:00pm ET, Monday

These two clubs could not be in more different mindsets coming into the campaign. Manchester United feel as if they are coalescing under the leadership of Erik ten Hag while Wolves have appointed a manager in Gary O’Neil just days before the season after the departure of Lopetegui. Wolves money problems meant that they could not improve their squad in the near term and now are up against it in the first match of the season (I also love Wolves to be relegated at +250 to +300). Old Trafford for Monday Night Football is no small task. For United, the additions in attack of Mason Mount from Chelsea and in goal with Andre Onana from Inter should be welcome improvements on both ends of the pitch. ETH should be able to see out his vision more clearly at United in his second season in the Premier League, as he is a fantastic manager. With Wolves historically, I’ve looked towards the under for goals as they are prolific limiting goal scoring chances while being anemic in front of it. Wolves to score 0 goals intrigues me as United were one of the top 5 clubs in the league at home in xGA but personally, United -1.5 goals feels best. I like the Red Devils to absolutely boss this one with the disarray around Wolves front and center right now.