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Best Bets for the English Premier League for Matchweek 11 We move into the 11th week of Premier League football and the storylines are certainly there regarding the top 5 and beyond. Sunday’s marquee matchup between Newcastle and Arsenal will certainly help shape it....
We move to match week 4 in the Premier League in what should include some riveting matches between Brighton and Newcastle as well as Arsenal and Manchester United. Let’s get into my favorite plays of the weekend!
Brentford-Bournemouth, 10:00am ET, Saturday
One of my favorite looks of the weekend resides at Gtech Community Stadium where Brentford welcome Bournemouth, who have accumulated only 1 point from a possible 9 so far. Brentford under Thomas Frank are a side who will start quickly and should take advantage of a Bournemouth side who have been timid early on in the Premier League campaign. The Bees are top of the table in xG and xGA through 3 matches and probably deserve more than the 5 points they have gotten. On the other hand, Bournemouth have been quite poor, allowing one of the highest xGAs in the league and the 4th lowest xG among clubs who have played 3 matches. I worry for Cherries in the long term and for tomorrow. Brentford have only lost one of their last 17 matches at home and should really be expecting to get 3 points tomorrow. This is an easy “bet the better team” scenario.
Give me Brentford -135 on the 3 way ML.
Sheffield United-Everton, 7:30am ET, Saturday
If you value your weekend sleep schedule and mental health, I’d advise not watching this match altogether. Both of these clubs are absolutely anemic in front of goal. Everton may have gotten the raw end of the deal in terms of analytics to start the season, but do not be tricked into a false sense of confidence with this frontline. The injuries to Iwobi and Calvert-Lewin still loom large. Beto could definitely be a positive option at the #9 going forward but he is still integrating into the squad and into a system that is largely defensive in philosophy. For Sheffield United, they rank BEHIND Luton City in xG and have played 1 less match. What does that say about them? Sure, they were more convincing vs City on the weekend but will not be able to play on the counter attack vs an Everton formation that will sit deeper. This clash screams under on goals and I will happily oblige.
Under 2.5 goals at -165 is juicy but I will indulge. Under 2.25 at -125 is a good look as well if you’re not willing to drink all that juice.
Brighton-Newcastle, 12:30pm ET, Saturday
This has the potential to be the most exciting match of the weekend as Brighton and Newcastle should be relentless in attack. I expect an end to end affair among these two and one that favors the Seagulls. RDZ has proven himself to be a masterful tactician so far in his time at Brighton and the attack of his frontline should frazzle what is a fragile Newcastle backline. Brighton rank 1st in the league in xG. Eddie Howe and Co are coming off a crushing loss on Sunday to 10 man Liverpool and now must pick themselves up in quick succession for this clash. Brighton should be able to take advantage of the moment and last week’s loss to West Ham will serve as a wake up call. A draw is certainly looming here but I cannot see Brighton losing at home. Against a now Big 7 in the Premier League with Newcastle included, they’ve outscored them in the past 20 fixtures.
Give me Brighton -120 DNB (Draw No Bet).