The best bets in the EPL Week 5
The International Break this early on in the Premier League season always puts a damper on the campaign as it’s just started to get rolling but we are back! The return of the best league in the world leaves much to be desired in Matchweek 5 in terms of watchability but not in terms of betability (yes, I just made that word up). Let’s get to my plays of the week.
(8-5 on the season, 62%)
Bournemouth-Chelsea, 9:00am ET, Sunday
One of my favorite looks of the weekend is also probably one of the least exciting clashes of the weekend. Bournemouth and Chelsea have been far from riveting in their first 4 matches of the season. The Cherries have yet to win on the campaign and the Blues only have 1 win from 4. I expect this one to be a tight affair at the Vitality Stadium between these two. Both managers know they need to get a result from this one in some form or fashion. Bournemouth really are not proficient in attack, owning the 4th worst xG among sides who have played 4 matches so far. I do not expect that to change and they will really need to grind out results to stay up this season. On the other end, Chelsea have actually done quite well in the final third according to xG but are let down by those they employ in attack. They continually get into good positions but the results just are not there. While that should even out over the course of the season, are you really sure that the likes of Raheem Sterling and Nicolas Jackson will make good on that promise? I am not and for that reason, I like the under on goals in this one. U3 goals is my favorite play in this Sunday afternoon soiree.
Aston Villa-Crystal Palace, 10:00am ET, Sunday
Villa has been quite the firecracker of a side so far in the Premier League. Unai Emery is not scared to go for it against each and every opponent they face. The Villains have been absolutely battered away from home by top 7 opponents, Newcastle and Liverpool, while putting 7 back against Burnley and Everton. Palace may be in for the same type of treatment at Villa Park on Saturday afternoon. Villa are not quite up to the quality of those Champions League clubs but they are a level above what is a really weak bottom half of the league. There has not been this dearth in talent among the lower level clubs in the Prem for quite some time but this year is an exception. I expect Villa to feast on teams such as Crystal Palace, especially in the comfort of their own home. Palace have only won 1 of their past 13 away from Selhurst Park. Saturday should be much of the same for Roy Hodgson’s side. Villa should get all 3 points and I’ve taken their 3 ML (-115).
Bonus Longshot ML Play (EPL Week Five):
Everton DNB (+370): I’ll protect myself from a draw here with an Everton DNB (Draw No Bet) wager. Arsenal have looked less than convincing to start the campaign despite wins at United and Crystal Palace. Meanwhile, Everton looked much, much better in their draw at Sheffield. They have an out and out striker now in Beto, which should pay dividends. Sean Dyche is always privy to making the most of his sides and I expect a big result at home at Goodison Park where they love a good Sunday or Monday night clash. According to Lewis Jones and Sky Sports, the Blues are unbeaten in 17 of their past 19 in this situation.
This is an article written by Pat Taylor
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