EPL Week Six Betting Picks by Pat Taylor
Another week has come and gone in the greatest league in the world (if you’re reading, you know it’s true). Match Week 6 of the Premier League is upon us and I’m back with my favorite plays on the weekend.
Pat’s Record in this EPL Campaign: 10-6 on the season, (63%)
Brighton-Bournemouth 9:00am ET, Sunday
If you have read my columns dating back to last season, you know I love the thought process in this sport of just betting the better team. This comes into effect on Saturday morning between Brighton and Bournemouth. The Gulls did have a Europa League clash on Thursday so it will be a bit of quicker turnaround which lends an advantage to Bournemouth. Their saving grace is that RDZ and Co. do not have to travel midweek. They will get to stay in Brighton and prepare for Sunday, starting on Friday. Brighton has covered the -1.5 handicap in every match in the Premier League this season and rank 2nd in the league in xG. This is one of the most impressively run clubs in all of Europe. Bet against them at your own risk. Meanwhile, the Cherries are 4th lowest in xG among clubs who have played 5 matches and 5th highest in xGA. Credit to Iraola, as he has scratched out some solid results early on for the club, but they are walking into a gauntlet of a match here.
Give me Brighton -1.5 on the goals handicap again. I expect them to continue their trend of covering.
Luton-Wolves 10:00am ET, Saturday
In what is almost certainly the least appealing match of the weekend, Wolves visit Luton in an early relegation battle. Both clubs desperately need a result, having accrued a total of 3 points in 8 combined matches between the two sides. Expect a cagey affair at Kenilworth Road and not much to come from either side in the final third. Luton Town really lack a Premier League proven option in the number 9 role and this will haunt them all campaign. Wolves always set up defensively and will look to play this one close to the vest. I expect Wolves to scratch out a result but what is safer here is the totals market. The goal line is set at 2.5 and even two goals feels a bit rich.
Give me U2.5 goals in this one and I advise you to turn your TV dial to another matchup even if you have a wager on this one.
Sheffield United-Newcastle, 11:30am ET, Sunday
Sheffield United have quietly been one of the more impressive clubs in the bottom half of the table so far this season. Manchester City and Tottenham needed late goals to steal 3 points in matches where the Blades had the lead for large parts of both. Now Newcastle United must make the trip to Bramall Lane in what should be a raucous environment, after having to play midweek in Milan. Eddie Howe’s group has looked far from impressive of late, having got lucky against AC MIlan in scratching out a draw and only averaging a non penalty .88xG per match in the Premier League this season. I expect Sheffield to again defend deep against a superior opponent and frustrate a Newcastle side who has not found their footing yet this season. Sheffield are way underpriced in my opinion.
I’ll happily oblige in the goals handicap at +1.25 and will even sprinkle that moneyline at +550.
This is an article written by Pat Taylor
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