EPL Week 8 – Pat Taylor Picks the Premiership for Matchday 8 – and the race for the title heats up
Another international break has come and gone and the Premier League is back for the long haul now as we advance quickly into fall and the end of the year. This weekend includes a bevy of great matches to kick us back off. Check out my two favorite plays of Matchweek 9 below!
Pat’s record is: 12-11 on the season
Brentford-Burnley 10:00am ET, Saturday
Far from the most appetizing match on the Saturday slate but one I will dip my toes into nonetheless. Neither club has quite lived up to what they were hoping for early on in the campaign but coming out of the international break is always a good time to recuperate for the smaller clubs with less international duties than the big clubs. Brentford will look to this match as somewhere they must find a way for 3 points if they want to finish top half of the table as some tapped them to be. The obvious answer for Brentford and crutch for Burnley is off set pieces. Brentford rank 2nd in xG from set pieces and face a club who have already allowed 3 off of them this season in Burnley. Despite the price, Brentford have doubled up Burnley in xG overall as well. Brentford are a level above and should be priced as such. Give me the better manager, side and club who is playing at home at this number (-115 to -120).
Aston Villa- West Ham 9:00am ET, Sunday
West Ham and Villa have been almost as good as you could expect in the first 1/5th of the season. Weirdly enough, Villa have somehow not beat West Ham in 10 straight matches and only taken 3 points off of them one time in their last 14. For me, historical data means little in the grand scheme of the match. What matters, is who is managing and playing on a given day. Aston Villa have been a fortress at home under Unai Emery, looking for their 10th straight win at Villa Park. This serves as a reality check for West Ham, who are overachieving their xGa by almost 6 goals. I think Villa are a level above and will compete for a European place. I cannot say the same about West Ham. The number feels a bit low at -105 to -110, so I’ll happily indulge in Villa on the 3 way ML here.
Bonus bets and looks:
Luton Town-Nottingham Forest U2.5:
The unders have burnt me badly of late but I’ll go back to the well here. Neither of these clubs are great in front of goal and Forest matches have had minimal goals (under 2.5 in 5 of 8).
This is an article written by Pat Taylor
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