Last night saw us go 2-3 and unlike Monday night where they were bad beats across the board, the losses tonight were swings and misses. They happen, especially over the course of the NBA season where players and teams have off-nights and performances fluctuate on a game-by-game basis. What we can do (and what I do) is take into account the season-long quality of teams and ingest all the knowledge you can from each game to weaponize it moving forward. I’ll do some of that today as we enter a smaller slate. As always, if you enjoy the plays I encourage you to follow me on Twitter (@RickHHSports) and subscribe here! Lets get into it.
Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks (7:30 ET)
Favorite: Celtics -3
Total: 231.5
At one point this season Boston was the clear beast of the east, annihilating teams left and right on both ends of the floor with Jayson Tatum running away with the MVP trophy. That euphoria has since dwindled with the Celtics going 5-5 over their last 10 games despite being fully healthy (barring Robert Williams III). The Celtics would much rather be playing this game at home where they’re 15-5 on the season winning by an average margin of 9.6 points, compared to the road where they’re still solid at 11-7, but that plus-minus drops to a mere 0.4.
Not only does their margin of victory drop significantly on the road, so does their shooting percentage – nearly 4 entire points in fact. On Dallas’ side, their a near perfect reflection of Boston this year, also going 15-5 at home but hoisting a worse road record at 7-11. Luka Doncic and his compatriots love playing with Mark Cuban courtside and it will take a monstrous performance from the league leaders to get them out of there.
So why are the Celtics slumping? I can point to a few statistics that have regressed sharply over this span compared to their season-long averages. Boston rank 3rd this season in true shooting percentage (DAL 7th), however over this span they’re just 25th (DAL 2nd). Defensively, Boston holds opponents to the 11th best effective field goal percentage, but has dropped to 21st over this span. They still dominate the boards, but on both sides of the ball the Celtics have looked labored in closing out shooters and are getting outworked.
Given the blowout by the Thunder, the Celtics were able to rest key players like Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart by only playing them twenty-odd minutes, and with a day off inbetween games the Celtics should be fully rested and prepared to end their two-game skid here in Dallas. The Mavericks are on a roll now, but in this seven game win streak they’ve beaten the Rockets (3x), Spurs, Knicks, Lakers, and Timberwolves. Many of those teams are dealing with serious injuries, and that’s not the case for Boston tonight. Give me the Celtics to bounce back.
Pick: Celtics -3 -110 (2u)
As I mentioned above, make sure to follow me on twitter (@RickHHSports) and turn on notifications as the other games contain significant injury concerns that will alter betting lines and plays. As people get announced, I might have additional plays for the evening, but at this time it’s one play on the biggest game of the day.
