The Sharpen the Public Podcast covers Best Bets for Week 10 in the NFL – Using public betting trends
How does the public continue to do so well betting the NFL in 2023? Every week as I prepare to write this article, I get excited to find out how the public does. Still, every week, it feels like they keep beating the books. However, NFL Week 10 has arrived and we are ready to bring you the best betting trends, information, and bets to prepare you for the slate. Here you will find the best ways to bet on premier matchups like the Cleveland Browns vs the Baltimore Ravens and even the San Francisco 49ers vs the Jacksonville Jaguars.
What new trends are in store for us after 9 weeks? It looked like the Overs would make a bit of a comeback, but nope unders continued to reign supreme. After the public’s bounce-back week, they managed to get even hotter, will that continue? Our unique public betting trends indicate things may turn back around for the general betting public.
Per usual we will take this point a bit further later, but through the first seven weeks, the public is a staggering 72-58 ATS! At this point in the season last year, the public was 10 games under .500 and now they are 10 games .500. The money and sharp differential are slowly improving week by week, and it looks like those metrics are trending toward what we saw in 2022.
If you are new here, welcome to Happy Hour Sports, my name is DJ and I track how the public and money do each week in the NFL. We want to take the phrase “fade the public” further because everyone talks about the betting public and money data, but when those numbers are brought up, there is no context around them. People assume high tickets on one side is bad, and high money on the other side is good. However, we are here to prove those claims right or wrong, every single week.
Our goal with Sharpen the Public and the weekly articles on this website is to provide context to the numbers and develop discourse regarding the data. If you are ever curious as to when the public does good, or what sharp differentials are strong indicators that a bet is the sharp side, then you have come to the right place. Follow the podcast and listen to us break everything down each week!
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With that out of the way, it’s time to get into this week’s best bets and analysis. Here you will find the bets that I place every week and some discussion on why I am taking most of them. We’re not trying to be those Twitter handicappers that scream max play at you, we want you to trust us. Don’t forget you can always find my recaps of the weeks here as well – detailing where things went wrong and how I did. I had a nice bounce back myself last week going 8-5, so let’s look to get on a hot streak.
It’s already week 9 and the games and data are beginning to stack up. We have all of last year to help influence our picks for this year and with the influx of bettors entering the market (evidenced by the bet totals last week); the sky’s the limit for where we can take our information and bets.
Deej Record from Week 8:
- Bets: 8-5
- Leans: 3-0
Week 10 NFL Betting Trends
Since we are already through week 9, that means we have official data to report regarding the public betting trends to influence our Week 10 bets. Check out the full recap article and many other NFL pieces at our NFL BETTING PICKS. Additionally, the recent podcasts always break down the updates to the trends. If you missed that, here they are:
- Public Betting Percentage: 72-58 ATS (55%)
- Money Betting Percentage: 69-61 ATS (53%)
- Sharp Differential: 64-66 ATS (49%)
- Public on Over: 28-45 (38%)
- Money on Over: 19-32 (37%)
- Sharp Diff. on Over: 13-16 (45%)
- Public on Under: 34-22 (61%)
- Money on Under: 47-33 (59%)
- Sharp Diff on Under: 63-38 (62%)
Now, we are the only people who provide deep recaps on these numbers like this every week; but, we are also the only sports betting brand that will dive deeper into these numbers and tell you important ranges that trends emerge from the already crazy trends you see above.
For example, through week 9, when the sharp differential has been between 10 and 14 % on a team, those teams are 19-7 ATS, which continues to be a crazy trend! However, the good thing about doing this week in and week out, is we get to monitor how each of the metrics performs, consistently. This allows us to make predictions weekly to back or fade trends, depending on what happens. For example, we saw this same range go 26-19 ATS in 2022, so you may be able to fade this range as it makes it way down a trail of regression.
Other crazy trends include a 36-13 record when the under is between a 5-19% sharp differential (3-0 in week 9). Money percentages on the over are 4-15 (1-3 in Week 9) below 60%, but 16-17 above that number. Public backing the over greater than 70% is 5-15 (1-1 in Week 9). There is so much cool stuff to derive from this information, whether you want to believe it or not. We even have specific trends for specific teams, like the public is 3-0 backing the Cowboys this year, wild!
As for the general trends – we are continuing to see similar trends from last year, like the public doing well on the under, but bad on the over. Through 8 weeks last year, the public was 30-50 on overs, so they are pretty much right in line with what happened last year. I think this means we can lean on more overs to happen in the latter half of the year since we saw the same thing happen last year near the midpoint of the season. However, unders are significantly overperforming in general in 2023, so we have to monitor that as well.
However, from a spread standpoint, with the public remaining the talk of the town we need to understand what that means. The public is more than 20 games better than they were at this point in 2022, so is the general betting public smarter? Are lines getting worse, where more people can take advantage? So many questions can be derived from the one point of the public performing well, and that was a point of emphasis in this weeks episode of Sharpen The Public. Personally, I think it has to turn around at some point. The issue is how can we know which week is the right one to fade them entirely?
We can’t, but we can take a look at the deeper trends each week. Knowing last week the public had one of their best weeks could indicate things are ready to turn back around for them. However, the Thursday game can be a good indicator for the rest of the week and the public had the Panthers +3.5 and the under, both of which cashed. These are small things that could indicate another good public week is in store for us. This will be a telling week, in my opinion.
Also, for other trends like the money percentage and sharp differential, I think a very positive second half of the year is coming. Last year, we saw significantly profitable trends come out of the larger sharp differentials, and sides with greater than 65% of the money. Yet, through this point in 2023, those same metrics have been performing poorly. However, over the last few weeks, it seems like larger sharp differentials and higher money percentages are picking it up, which to me indicates maybe things are turning around.
Every game is different, and I want that to be clear. However, as we continue to track the general public betting trends over the season, we will have more information than the average bettor, and we don’t need much logic to bet better than them. Anyway, let’s get into the picks because I cannot wait for this slate!
Note that I am writing this around 9:30 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider sticking around and subscribing!
Week 10 NFL Best Bets and Analysis
San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars (+3), Total 45.5
Down in Jacksonville, we find two teams off a bye, trending in different directions. The Niners began the season as everyone’s favorite to win the Super Bowl coming out hot and frankly looking unbeatable. However, once Purdy started showing some inconsistencies and the injuries began to pour in, the Niners became human again. On the other hand, after starting slow, the Jaguars have gone 5-0 since their divisional loss to the Texans. I think, even after the bye, we continue to see the same thing here with the Jags as home dogs. Schefter just tweeted that Trent Williams is a go for the Niners, although he is still battling his injury. I think that is huge for the Niners to get back to their winning ways, but with Jacksonville also off a bye, they should have a game plan in place for Josh Allen and their defensive line to make Purdy look human, as he has been in the past few games. The Niners only look good when they can get the run game going, but the Jags allow the 3rd fewest yards to opposing offenses on the ground. The Public loves the Niners as road favorites here, but the money and sharp differential scream to take the Jags. I’m backing Dougy P as a home dog.
The Play: Jaguars +3 -110 (1u)
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens (-6.5), Total 38.5
In the classic AFC North matchup, we see the red-hot Ravens playing host to the Browns. These teams have already played once this year, where the Ravens demolished the Browns in Cleveland. I am not so sure we will get a major demolishing again, but I think with the spread set at nearly a touchdown, the books indicate it won’t be close. When this line first came out, my instinct was Browns all the way. However, the Ravens defense has looked unbelievable of late, and they continue to get healthier. If I were to pick a side, I would lean Ravens, but I am eyeing the total because of these teams’ history with each other, and strong defensive performances in the first half of the year. The Ravens did put up 28 in their first meeting, but the Browns offense was part of the reason there as they could not get anything done or hold the ball. So, with run first offense from both sides, great defenses, and teams that know each other, I have to back the under here. 95% of the money is on the under, and there is still a large 18% differential for it. Unders that meet that criteria are 36-13 this year and went 3-0 last week – give me the under,
The Play: Under 38.5 -110 (1u)
New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings (+2.5), Total 41
Off one of the most exciting wins this year, Minnesota gets to host Derek Carr and the Saints. Historically, Derek Carr is an awful ATS quarterback against the spread, and now he is a road favorite against a team that everyone wants to succeed with the Josh Dobbs story. In my opinion, there are two major issues for the Vikings here at home. One, their defense is bottom of the league in a few metrics (including 3rd down stoppage rate and pace), so they allow teams to keep drives alive and move the ball. This was one of the major issues that plagued them, against the Falcons in Week 9, but Dobbs pulled them through. Secondly, Dobbs is only in his second week with the team, so this formidable Saints defense will look a whole lot different to the Falcons defense he faced last week. There are effectively no positive Derek Carr trends to look to when he is a favorite, but as of late it feels like the Saints are pulling things together. Yes, it was the Bears, but they managed to pull out and win the game with a few picks. Additionally, their red zone offense seems like it has fully improved, now that Taysom Hill is getting more of the action when the sticks get tighter. Right now, there is an 11% sharp differential towards the Vikings, and I would normally want to back that, but as we discussed earlier – I expect regression from that range. Give me the Saints in a gritty one in Minnesota.
The Play: Saints -2.5 (1u) -120
Detroit Lions vs Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5), Total 48.5
This game introduces so many question marks for me. Why did the Chargers open up as favorites? Why is this line only set at 3 points? Firstly, this is going to be a home game for Detroit, as the Chargers fan base can never seem to make an impact at SoFi stadium. Jared Goff gets to return to the sunny beaches of LA and probably dominate this abysmal Chargers secondary. Despite the public perception of this game, I actually like the under. One of the highest totals of the week, for good reason as the Chargers cannot seem to stop anyone on defense. However, 78% of the public is backing this over, and in today’s NFL, this is far too many. 4 times this year has there been a Lions total over 46, and it’s 1-3 to the under. Yes, both of these teams can put up points, but with the Chargers’ injuries and Lions’ defensive line, it will be slow-moving for the Chargers in LA today. Public betting trends tell us to fade the public backing an over heavily, and while I love the Lions to cover 3 in California, I love the under more.
The Play: Under 48.5 -110 (1u)
Plays without a writeup:
- Packers +9/Seahawks -0.5 Teaser
- Titans/Bucs u39 -110 (public heavy on over, sharp diff. Toward under)
The Leans (May take some of these closer to kickoff)
After getting such an incredible response to start the season this year, I think I want to continue to give out my leans in games that I am not even betting on because it may help others with their decisions. So if you have seen my recent Reddit posts you will see that I update these as the weeks go on. Based on all the current public betting information, here is what I am thinking for Week 10 of the NFL!
- Falcons/Cardinals – this game feels so ugly to me and with Kyler questions, I have no idea what to think. I lean Cardinals as home dogs getting healthier, but they have been inconsistent.
- Giants/Cowboys – The line is just too much for me to handle, personally. Think the Cowboys will easily blow the Giants out, but this depends too much on what happens in the 4th quarter (which players play, play calling, turnovers, etc.). Too many unknowns.
- Texans/Bengals – Lean the Bengals here to cover at home. Stroud is not nearly as good away from Texas, but I think the public does bad this week – conflicting opinions leading me to stay away.
Thanks for reading! If you guys like what you see or have any comments/critiques, please let me know on Twitter, I appreciate all feedback. Please also follow the podcast and share the website! I will see you on Tuesday with another recap episode of Sharpen the Public.
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