NFL Week 10 Best Bets and Betting Preview – Close Spreads and Low Totals Offer Opportunity for Positive Closing Line Movement
We have officially passed the halfway mark in the NFL season, and Week 10 does not give us a much easier betting slate as the last several weeks have presented NFL bettors. The NFL Week 10 spreads only hold five games with a spread greater than 3, and have eight totals that are 42 points or lower. The football betting season has been an interesting one with plenty of close spreads and low totals, and things continue to trend that way making things difficult when selecting your NFL best bets.
After sending the fans in Germany the best teams we could in the Dolphins and Chiefs, we are making up for such a great game by giving Frankfurt the Colts and Patriots on Sunday. Before that on Thursday night, we are treated to an absolute classic as the Panthers travel to Soldier Field to take on Tyson Bagent and the Chicago Bears. Could I interest you in Titans and Bucs, Saints and Vikings, or Falcons and Cardinals too?
Jokes aside, there are two premier NFL matchups in Week 10 to supplement all of the bad ones, at least giving us some good football to look forward to. The Niners and Jaguars return from their bye weeks to take on each other in a high-octane matchup, while we get a Browns and Ravens showdown of top offense versus top defense in an AFC North Divisional showdown. Besides this matchup, the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Eagles all being on a bye week in Week 10 along with the Rams means that our options are limited for Super Bowl hopefuls that can give us an entertaining head-to-head matchup.
With low spreads and low totals highlighting the Week 10 NFL betting slate, we are presented with ample opportunities once again to find some edges early on in the market. If you are interested in positioning yourself for some positive closing line value or some early week NFL action to look forward to as the week goes on, be sure to check out this article every Monday morning! You can follow me @AndyHHSports on X (or Twitter) for more too as I occasionally tweet a play or two if I think the line will move before I can put pen to paper. With that out of the way, let’s jump into why you are here and break down my Best Bets for the Week 10 NFL games.
Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots Betting Preview for NFL Week 10
Frankfurt, Germany, 9:30 AM EST
Colts -1.5 | Total: 43.5
The Colts and Patriots continue the NFL’s ventures abroad as the hottest rivalry of the early 2000s face off once again. Indianapolis got their first win against New England since 2009 back in December of 2021 thanks to Jonathan Taylor and Carson Wentz, and JT will look to replicate that after missing the game last year where the Patriots thumped the Colts 26-3. The Colts are coming off of a win in Charlotte where the defense took advantage of Bryce Young with three interceptions, while the Patriots have added to their portfolio of losses as they lost by three on Sunday at home to the Commanders.
These games abroad are hard to predict, and you don’t know what version of the teams you may get. We saw a Bills team come out and drop a dud against the Jaguars in London, while this past weekend the Chiefs came out and hung 21 on the Dolphins to start the game before the Fins woke up and stormed back in the second half. There are a lot of variables that go into these games – many more than your normal home or away game on American soil. What I can guarantee is the Patriots are not going to magically get better just because this game is across the pond, so the largest question mark is on the Colts.
The Indianapolis Colts are the only team in the NFL to score at least 20 points in every single game this season. With Richardson not even featuring in half of the Colts’ games this season, it is a testament to Shane Steichen and the Colts offensive line to make do with what they’ve got and supporting one of the top rushing offenses in the league with Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss. Taylor and Moss regressed a good bit against the Panthers, but I would look for a bounce back from both backs against a Patriots side that allows over one rushing touchdown a game as well as 29 rush attempts per outing.
Indy has not gone up against many teams that get penalized super often, ranking towards the bottom of the league in opponent penalties per game at 4.8 heading into their matchup against Carolina before the Panthers were penalized ten times, bringing that number up to 5.2. I expect that average to rise dramatically again as the Patriots are averaging 6.1 penalties a game conceding 50.1 yards on average in the process. New England is also averaging an interception thrown per game, and 0.6 fumbles lost, both ranking near the bottom of the NFL.
This Colts team is not made up of world-beaters. The defense has had a lot of struggles this season letting up close to the most points per game in the league at 26.98. New England ranks on the polar opposite side in scoring, unable to do so with their high turnovers, penalties, and lack of ability to run the ball. When you pair all of these factors together, it is clear that whether this game is played in America, Germany, Antarctica, or the Moon, the Patriots are going to struggle while Mac Jones is under center. Give me the Colts here as the defense comes off of a big performance in Carolina and the offense should bounce back against a side that cannot help itself by shooting themselves in the foot.
The Play: Colts -1.5 (-110) – 1 Unit
Detroit Lions vs Los Angeles Chargers Best Bets and Week 10 Betting Preview
SoFi Stadium – Los Angeles, California | 4:05 PM EST
Lions -1 | Total: 48.5
The Detroit Lions are coming off of their Week 9 bye, and travel to Los Angeles where the Chargers fans will be absent as usual and the Detroit fans should be rampant, supporting their 6-2 NFC North leaders. The Chargers will be returning from their Monday Night Football game against the New York Jets on only five full days of prep heading into a 1:05 PM Pacific time matchup, giving them a seven-day rest disadvantage against the Lions who last played in their Monday Night Football matchup against the Raiders. These two teams feature high-power offenses, but I believe the Lions’ defense on extra rest and preparation should be able to pick apart Justin Herbert and company fairly easily, leading me to believe this spread may move. As I write this Sunday evening, I think we will see some movement after the Chargers play their MNF game against the Jets if things don’t go well – so keep an eye out!
I could go on all day about both of these offenses, but I would rather highlight where I believe we could find some advantages in the matchups for the Lions against the Chargers. Aidan Hutchinson matches up nicely against Pipkins, Salyer, and Clapp on the right side of LA’s offensive line. Four of the five offensive linemen for Los Angeles rank below the 62nd percentile according to PFF, which ranks them close to below half of the players in their position group if they aren’t already towards the bottom. On top of the mismatches in the trenches, I expect Alex Anzalone and Brian Branch to do their homework and contain Keenan Allen efficiently unless Anzalone is having his way putting pressure on Herbert too.
Despite the majority of the Chargers’ defense ranking very highly on PFF, Los Angeles allows 24 points per game which ranks in the bottom quarter of the league, and allows 390.9 total yards per game which is second to last. This goes to show that even though the individual ratings show one thing, sometimes the premium stats don’t tell the full story. The weak spot for LA is their opponent’s passing yards allowed per game, which ranks dead last in the NFL at 297.4 a game. I would eye Amon-Ra St. Brown player props when they open, and they oftentimes open up earlier on some of the fantasy sites which you can find sign-up offers for here!
The Lions have several top-five offensive linemen in the league, which helps reduce the threat of Khalil Mack and company and could win them the battle of the trenches which by default will allow Jahmyr Gibbs to thrive. I see a few avenues for the Lions to take care of business in LA from a matchups standpoint, and with a rest advantage coming off the bye as well as a lack of a home-field advantage for the Chargers, you may think this line is a trap. It is not often I go this route when giving out a play, but this is one of those that I am just going to take and trust in the Detroit Lions as one of the best teams in the league with plenty of supporting stats and outside factors to contribute to the play. Let’s Go Lions.
The Play: Detroit Lions -1 (-110) – 1.5 Units
THIS IS AN ARTICLE WRITTEN BY ANDY CHASE
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