Yet another positive week for the public betting on the NFL as I sit here writing my Sunday article. We have been trying to predict their downfall for several weeks now, and time and time again – the public prevails. Is Week 11 where we see them finally get some things wrong?
NFL Week 11 has swiftly arrived and as always we are here to bring you the best betting trends, information, and predictions to prepare you for the slate. Here you will find the best ways to bet on premier matchups like the Pittsburgh Steelers vs the Cleveland Browns and the 49ers vs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
What do the trends have in store for us after 10 weeks? Primetime unders are the talk of the town going 30-7 in 2023. Games with sharp differentials towards the under are 69-45 to the under. It is kind of wild to see how dominant unders have been this year, but at the end of the day – the public is getting the spotlight through Week 10.
Per usual we will take this point a bit further later, but through the first seven weeks, the public is a staggering 81-64 ATS (a 56% win percentage). At this point in the season last year, the public was 10 games under .500 and now they are 17 games above .500. Absolutely crazy. For our other metrics, the money and sharp differential are slowly improving week by week, and it looks like those are trending toward what we saw in 2022.
If you are new here, welcome to Happy Hour Sports, my name is DJ and I track how the public and money do each week in the NFL. We want to take the phrase “fade the public” further because everyone talks about the betting public and money data, but when those numbers are brought up, there is no context around them. People assume high tickets on one side is bad, and high money on the other side is good. However, we are here to prove those claims right or wrong, every single week.
Our goal with Sharpen the Public and the weekly articles on this website is to provide context to the numbers and develop discourse regarding the data. If you are ever curious as to when the public does good, or what sharp differentials are strong indicators that a bet is the sharp side, then you have come to the right place. Follow the podcast and listen to us break everything down each week!
With that out of the way, it’s time to get into this week’s best bets and analysis. Here you will find the bets that I place every week and some discussion on why I am taking most of them. We’re not trying to be those Twitter handicappers that scream max play at you, we want you to trust us. Don’t forget you can always find my recaps of the weeks here as well – detailing where things went wrong and how I did. I had my worst week in a while, going 4-6 in Week 10. Let’s get back on track here in Week 11.
It’s already week 11 and the games and data are beginning to stack up. We have all of last year to help influence our picks for this year and with the influx of bettors entering the market (evidenced by the bet totals last week); the sky’s the limit for where we can take our information and bets.
Deej Record from Week 8:
- Bets: 4-6
- Leans: 1-1
Week 11 NFL Betting Trends
Since we are already through week 10, that means we have official data to report regarding the public betting trends to influence our Week 11 bets. Check out the full recap article and many other NFL pieces at our NFL BETTING PICKS. Additionally, the recent podcasts always break down the updates to the trends. If you missed that, here they are:
- Public Betting Percentage: 81-64 ATS (56%)
- Money Betting Percentage: 77-68 ATS (53%)
- Sharp Differential: 76-69 ATS (52%)
- Public on Over: 33-47 (41%)
- Money on Over: 22-34 (39%)
- Sharp Diff. on Over: 14-17 (45%)
- Public on Under: 39-25 (61%)
- Money on Under: 52-38 (58%)
- Sharp Diff on Under: 69-45 (61%)
Now, we are the only people who provide deep recaps on these numbers like this every week; but, we are also the only sports betting brand that will dive deeper into these numbers and tell you important ranges that trends emerge from the already crazy trends you see above.
For example, through week 10, when the sharp differential has been between 10 and 14 % on a team, those teams are 21-7 ATS, which continues to be a crazy trend! However, the good thing about doing this week in and week out, is we get to monitor how each of the metrics performs, consistently. This allows us to make predictions weekly to back or fade trends, depending on what happens. For example, we saw this same range go 26-19 ATS in 2022, so you may be able to fade this range as it makes it way down a trail of regression.
Other crazy trends include a 40-18 record when the under is between a 5-19% sharp differential (4-5 in week 9). Money percentages on the over are 5-16 (1-1 in Week 9) below 60%, but 18-17 above that number. Public backing the over greater than 70% is 9-16 (4-1 in Week 9). There is so much cool stuff to derive from this information, whether you want to believe it or not. We even have specific trends for specific teams, like the public is 6-0 backing the Dolphins this year, wild!
As for the general trends – we are continuing to see similar trends from last year, like the public doing well on the under, but bad on the over. Through 8 weeks last year, the public was 30-50 on overs, so they are pretty much right in line with what happened last year. I think this means we can lean on more overs to happen in the latter half of the year, since we saw the same thing happen last year near the mid point of the season. However, unders are significantly overperforming in general in 2023, so we have to monitor that as well.
From a spread standpoint, with the public remaining the talk of the town we need to understand what that means. The public is more than 20 games better than they were at this point in 2022, so is the general betting public smarter? Are lines getting worse, where more people can take advantage? So many questions can be derived from the one point of the public performing well, and that was a point of emphasis in this week’s episode of Sharpen The Public. I think it has to turn around at some point.
After a slightly worse Week 10 than Week 9, I think we are starting to see another downturn. The Thursday game can be a good indicator for the rest of the week, and the public had the Bengals which did not cash. These are small things that could indicate I may be right, and the public is in for a bad week. This will be a telling week, in my opinion.
Also, for other trends like the money percentage and sharp differential, I think a very positive second half of the year is coming. Last year, we saw significantly profitable trends come out of the larger sharp differentials, and sides with greater than 65% of the money. Yet, through this point in 2023, those same metrics have been performing poorly. However, over the last few weeks, it seems like larger sharp differentials and higher money percentages are picking it up, which indicates maybe things are turning around (2-0 from the Golden Rule in Week 10 excites me very much).
Every game is different, and I want that to be clear. However, as we continue to track the general public betting trends over the season, we will have more information than the average bettor, and we don’t need much logic to bet better than them. Anyway, let’s get into the picks because I cannot wait for this slate!
Note that I am writing this around 9:30 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider sticking around and subscribing!
Week 11 NFL Best Bets and Analysis
Arizona Cardinals vs Houston Texans (-5.5), Total 47.5
After two major emotional wins, CJ Stroud and the Texans find themselves at home facing the new-look Cardinals with Kyler back at quarterback. From the public betting data, I can only derive that the public is fading the CJ Stroud story as they sit as fairly large home favorites here on Sunday. The public and the money are all over the Cardinals, but personally, I cannot see why. From a motivation standpoint, all of the emotion in this one will come from the Texans’ side. They have a rookie quarterback putting up historic performances, and if they keep winning they have a very good shot at the playoffs. The Cardinals season was chalked from the start but maybe wants to win for a bit of pride. While the Cardinals look completely better with Kyler starting again, the issue is their defense going up against a team that averages over 27 points at home. I have a strong feeling the public has a bad week this Sunday, and it starts with a loss in Houston. Give me CJ and the boys to cover at home and keep rolling.
The Play: Texans -5.5 -110 (1u)
Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins (-13.5), Total 45.5
Another week, another day I for some reason lean a Dolphins under. I know there is so much explosive opportunity from this Dolphins team, and they are getting Achane back today, but when there is so much expectation for one thing to happen – I love to go the other way. The public is on the over in this one, yet the total continues to move down from its open at 48. There are expected to be 9+ mph winds today in Miami, so expect the ball to stay on the ground as both of these teams look to work through their workhorse backfields. With Antonio Pierce at the helm, the Raiders have been looking great – actually utilizing Josh Jacobs and the decent offensive line they have. And despite what the narrative is about the Dolphins defense is, they are not bad at stopping the run. They rank 9th in rushing yards allowed and 11th in rushing attempts. I don’t expect this Raiders offense to get anything done in the air with Aiden O’Connel at quarterback, and once the Dolphins go up multiple touchdowns in the first half – this game will slow down entirely. It’s a tough one to take, but I have to do it – give me the under.
The Play: Under 46.5 -110 (1u)
Los Angeles Chargers vs Green Bay Packers (+3), Total 44
After going toe to toe with the Lions last week, the Chargers are now 3-point favorites on the road in Green Bay. The Packers have been a team I’ve been trying to stay away from, but it feels like every week they get lines that I can’t look away from. Despite the narratives this year of the Packers being a mediocre team, they showed some signs of life last week against the Steelers’ defense. Love threw for nearly 300 yards and 2 TDs, so if he can sure up the turnovers, they might have a viable offense. Enter the Chargers defense, the team that allows the second most passing yards, 6th most yards per game, and are one of the worst teams on first and second down. As home underdogs, I think this is a great spot to show the world what we have been missing from this Packers offense. Hopefully, their defense can string together some stops though, because they are not great against the run and I don’t love the Packers to win in any type of shootout here. As of right now, the public is hammering the Chargers, but there is a sharp edge falling into a 21-7 ATS trend on the Packers – give me the home underdog.
The Play: Packers +3 (1u) -110
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers (-12.5), Total 41.5
This slate is filled with massive spreads, and this game is the second largest of our Sunday. The fully healthy Niners host the declining Buccaneers in what seems to be another rout for San Francisco. I would love to say I like the Buccaneers here, but there are no indications that they will be able to stop anything the Niners throw at them. What I am backing on here, is the wind being upwards of 10 miles an hour on the west coast. Without the ability to put the ball in the air, the Bucs are useless. They rank dead last in the NFL in rushing yards per game and are 4th worst in rushing TDs. Even their passing offense is mediocre because Baker has absolutely no time to get the ball out. The only worry for the total here is the Niners getting to the number themselves. I am hopeful they stick to their methodic offensive game plan and plan to keep the ball on the ground with the weather conditions. The public is on the over in this one, and the number has moved down with a nice sharp differential to back it. Let’s hope something similar to last week happens and the Niners win 34-3. Give me the under.
The Play: Under 41.5 -109 (1u)
Plays without a writeup:
- Steelers +8.5/Lions -1.5 Teaser
- Commanders/Giants u38.5 (podcast play) -110
- Titans +6.5 -110 (Backing the Golden Rule, Divisional Dog)
The Leans (May take some of these closer to kickoff)
After getting such an incredible response to start the season this year, I think I want to continue to give out my leans in games that I am not even betting on because it may help others with their decisions. So if you have seen my recent Reddit posts you will see that I update these as the weeks go on. Based on all the current public betting information, here is what I am thinking for Week 11 of the NFL!
- Seahawks/Rams – My initial lean is Seahawks here, I think they are the better team despite being very inconsistent the past two weeks – however most of my research has shown to take the Rams. So, I am deciding to stay away.
- Cowboys/Panthers – Similar to last week’s game, I don’t want to touch the Cowboys in a large spread game. I think the Panthers cover the number here at home, but I don’t want to back Bryce Young.
- Bills/Jets – Similar to the Rams/Seahawks game, I like the Bills but my research suggests otherwise. I may be on the Bills come kickoff, but staying away for now.
- Week 10 Article | Podcast | YouTube
Thanks for reading! If you guys like what you see or have any comments/critiques, please let me know on Twitter, I appreciate all feedback. Please also follow the podcast and share the website! I will see you on Tuesday with another recap episode of Sharpen the Public.
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