NFL Week 11 Betting Preview – Heavy Favorites and Lopsided Matchups Headline the Week 11 NFL Betting Slate
With Week 10 of NFL action behind us, we officially have run out of 14 to 15 hour Sundays filled with watching football. The International Series has come to a close, and all five of the games we sent across the pond went under. What more could our friends in Europe ask of us?
As we head into our NFL Week 11 Betting Preview, it is important to note that the spreads are much larger than the last few weeks, with seven of the fourteen games having a spread of 6 points or more. The Falcons, Patriots, Colts, and Saints are all on bye, which means every team with an above .500 record is playing in Week 11. As such, we have the larger spreads as I touched on but also the totals are higher than in previous weeks, making things a bit more interesting to navigate when betting overs and unders this week.
Last week the Early Best Bets article went 2-0 for +2.5 units, and we will look to replicate that magic the rest of the way! I also tweeted out six plays for the 1 PM Eastern Time slate, so if you missed out on those be sure to follow me @AndyHHSports on Twitter. With that out of the way, let’s jump right into a much more lopsided Week 11 of NFL betting action.
Arizona Cardinals vs Houston Texans Week 11 NFL Betting Preview
NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas
Texans -5 | Total: 48.5
The Cardinals and Texans are both coming off of dramatic wins in close contests as they head into their Week 11 matchup in Houston. Kyler Murray had a strong return to NFL action throwing for 249 yards and rushing for 33, with a rushing touchdown to show on the scoreboard. The Falcons could not decide who they wanted to play quarterback and largely struggled as they have all season to consistently put points up against a Cardinals team who was led in scoring by Matt Prater.
The Texans on the other hand followed up CJ Stroud’s incredible 470 passing yard performance against the Bucs in Week 9 by taking a commanding lead in Cincinnati while also staving off the comeback by Joe Burrow and company. Nico Collins was out for the Texans, and it didn’t matter as CJ Stroud still threw for 356 yards and a touchdown while getting Noah Brown 172 of those yards. Devin Singletary also had a day, rushing 30 times for 150 yards and a touchdown against a Bengals defense that presents a much greater challenge for this Texans team than their foe coming up in Week 11.
I think that this spread is set too low solely based on the Cardinals getting a win under their belt at home against the Atlanta Falcons who have not figured out this season if they are sinking or swimming. Kyler Murray returning and showing flashes of why he was drafted first overall is a very reassuring sight to see for any Cardinals fan, but the Texans are an entirely different animal. CJ Stroud has proven this season that he is not only the best rookie quarterback taken in the 2023 Draft but also is contending for a Top 10 quarterback spot in the league just 10 weeks into the season. The Falcons offense switched quarterbacks midway through the game on Sunday, and still can’t figure out how to use top pick Bijan Robinson to his full capabilities. Meanwhile, CJ Stroud is elevating the games of guys like Noah Brown and Tank Dell who the casual NFL fan likely did not know existed before this season.
This spread is likely going to move as the week goes on, and I would maybe even check out some alternate spreads on Sunday before the game to see if there is any value on the Texans to win this one by two touchdowns or more. The Texans wide receivers have very favorable matchups against Cardinals corners and inside linebackers that rank in the bottom half of PFF ratings, and I don’t think Houston’s offensive line will have much trouble against an inferior Arizona defensive line that will be asking the outside linebackers to step up big time. Stroud is going to be positioned for yet another 300-passing-yard game or better, so be sure to check out his props as the week goes along too. Give me the Texans here in what is going to be a one-sided matchup as many overrate the previous result the Cardinals just got as Houston flies back from Joe Burrow’s house with a much more impressive victory.
The Play: Houston Texans -5 (-110) – 1.5 Units
NFL Week 11 TEASER OF THE WEEK
After a brief hiatus following some unfortunate results that turned our teaser luck sour, it is time to revive my marquee part of these Early Best Bets articles and bring back the Happy Hour Teaser of the Week. With how many games are so lopsided in terms of talent, performance, and season trajectory, I think there is a lot of opportunity for teasers this week compared to weeks prior. Check out these two matchups that I will be putting into a teaser below, and be sure to take advantage of some of our Sportsbook sign-up bonus offerings above in order to shop around for the best possible teaser markets you can.
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Week 11 Betting Preview
TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, FL
Jaguars -6.5 | Total: 40
The Jaguars are reeling from a 34-3 beatdown against the San Francisco 49ers in a game where Jacksonville were home underdogs by 3 points by the time the game kicked off. Now they play host to their division rival Titans who simply cannot put points on the board no matter who is behind center. Will Levis got a lot of hype following Tennessee’s victory over the Falcons in Week 8, but since then have only scored 16 points in a loss to the Steelers and 6 points in a loss to the Bucs that the Titans had 10 days to prepare for.
The Titans decided to stay put at the trade deadline after many thought they would start to sell on a lot of their players, but ultimately the gamble to continue on with who they have instead of locking in some draft capital and future value has not worked for the 3-6 side. The Jaguars should have no trouble picking apart this squad on offense, as Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and company look to bounce back from only scoring three points against the Niners. With how the Titans have struggled on offense, paired with a nice home bounce-back opportunity for the Jags, I really like this opportunity to tease down Jacksonville from -6.5 to -0.5 and would be happy to tease it down even if the spread rises up two points more.
This game fits perfectly into the Wong Teaser criteria as you are taking the home team on a low total of 40 points down from a touchdown to a pick ‘em. On top of the teaser criteria, the Titans have struggled when they cannot establish the run and get Derrick Henry going as we saw against the Bucs. The Jaguars were allowing 79.3 rushing yards per game before the 49ers beatdown in Week 10, which ranked in the Top 5 of the NFL, paired with only allowing 3.6 rushing yards per carry which also ranked in the Top 5. With Levis still learning the ropes as a rookie quarterback, and the Jaguars matching up strongly against the run, I’ll not only be teasing the Jaguars but also be riding with the under in this one.
The Play: Under 40 (-110) – 1 Unit
Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams NFC West Divisional Betting Preview
SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
Seahawks -3 | Total: 44
The Rams did not feature in the Week 10 action as they were on their bye week, which gives starting quarterback Matthew Stafford extra time to heal up after missing some time with an injured thumb. Los Angeles having a 3-6 record as we enter the final 8 weeks of the season can come as a bit of a surprise when seeing how successful the likes of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nucua have been for fantasy football players this year. The Week 1 victory by the Rams as they took down the Seahawks in a 30-13 rout seems long gone, and yet I feel that it could be replicated again after seeing how the Seahawks have performed lately.
I don’t have any crazy bye week stats for Sean McVay as he only holds a 3-3 record coming out of the bye, but McVay does hold a 9-5 record over Pete Carroll and the Seahawks during his time coaching the Rams since 2017. During this time, the Rams have only lost one matchup to the Seahawks by double digits which was during the 2020 COVID season. You may start to see where I am going with this.
Unfortunately for Seahawks fans this season it feels like we have seen some regression from Geno Smith’s impressive 2022-23 campaign. The Seahawks are throwing almost 60% of the time this season on offense and yet Geno is only passing for 225.3 yards a game. Smith has thrown 7 picks to pair with his 9 touchdowns and has had to rely heavily on second-year runningback Kenneth Walker who has rushed for 532 yards and 6 touchdowns this season. The Rams aren’t anything special defensively this year as we have seen from them in years past, but I do think that with two weeks of prep, it is manageable to stop this Seahawks offense.
The big question here will depend on Matthew Stafford’s health, but that is also where the value presents itself right now with the spread sitting at +3. I’ll tease the Rams coming off of a bye week to +9 in our Happy Hour Sports Teaser of the Week, knowing that there are still a lot of questions surrounding the Rams but that history around this series supports that the divisional matchup should be close. The Seahawks have had some closer games this season, with their only double-digit victories coming against the bottom-of-the-barrel teams in the NFL like the Panthers, Giants, and Cardinals, cushioning Seattle’s 6-3 record. I like Los Angeles to keep things close with two weeks of prep and rest, as Sean McVay continues to perform well in this series against Pete Carroll.
Happy Hour Sports Teaser of the Week
6-Point Teaser (-120) – 1.5 Units
Jacksonville Jaguars -0.5 | Los Angeles Rams +9
THIS IS AN ARTICLE WRITTEN BY ANDY CHASE
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