NFL Week 12 Best Bets and Analysis

Well, Thanksgiving and Black Friday have come and gone, and we still have a full NFL slate to think about on another glorious Sunday. The Public has started the week off well, going 3-1 through Thanksgiving and Black Friday, will it continue through the entirety of Week 12?

NFL Week 12 has swiftly arrived and as always we are here to bring you the best betting trends, information, and predictions to prepare you for the slate. Here you will find the best ways to bet on premier matchups like the New England Patriots vs the New York Giants and the Chiefs vs the Raiders.

I need a significant bounce back after going 0-4 on Thanksgiving. My worst day ever giving out picks in my articles. It never is fun to go through, but 0fors are part of sports betting. However, I am excited about the games today. I think the spreads are very difficult, which should make for a great day of football. We will see what the public thinks though because they are still killing it after a 3-1 Thursday and Friday, they are now nearly 20 games above .500 on the year.

Per usual we will take this point a bit further later, but through the first seven weeks, the public is a staggering 89-73  ATS (a 55% win percentage). On Thanksgiving last year, the public went 2-1 ATS as well then finished the week at 8-8 ATS. If things follow suit, then we should expect a rather poor day from the public on this Week 12 Sunday. The sharp differential also went 12-4 ATS that week in 2022, so maybe we can have another great day for that as well. There is a lot we can talk about for this slate, so let’s get into it all.

If you are new here, welcome to Happy Hour Sports, my name is DJ and I track how the public and money do each week in the NFL. We want to take the phrase “fade the public” further because everyone talks about the betting public and money data, but when those numbers are brought up, there is no context around them. People assume high tickets on one side is bad, and high money on the other side is good. However, we are here to prove those claims right or wrong, every single week.

Our goal with Sharpen the Public and the weekly articles on this website is to provide context to the numbers and develop discourse regarding the data. If you are ever curious as to when the public does good, or what sharp differentials are strong indicators that a bet is the sharp side, then you have come to the right place. Follow the podcast and listen to us break everything down each week! 

With that out of the way, it’s time to get into this week’s best bets and analysis. Here you will find the bets that I place every week and some discussion on why I am taking most of them. We’re not trying to be those Twitter handicappers that scream max play at you, we want you to trust us. Don’t forget you can always find my recaps of the weeks here as well – detailing where things went wrong and how I did.  Last week was another one in the green at 5-4, but like I said above – 0-4 on Thanksgiving is never good.

It’s already week 12  and the games and data are beginning to stack up. We have all of last year to help influence our picks for this year and with the influx of bettors entering the market (evidenced by the bet totals last week); the sky’s the limit for where we can take our information and bets.

Deej Record from Week 8: 

• Bets: 5-4
• Leans: 1-2

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Since we are already through week 11, that means we have official data to report regarding the public betting trends to influence our Week 12 bets. Check out the full recap article and many other NFL pieces at our NFL BETTING PICKS. Additionally, the recent podcasts always break down the updates to the trends. If you missed that, here they are:

• Public Betting Percentage:86-72 ATS (54%)
• Money Betting Percentage: 81-77 ATS (51%)
• Sharp Differential: 80-72 ATS (51%)
• Public on Over: 36-53 (40%)
• Money on Over: 23-37 (38%)
• Sharp Diff. on Over: 15-18 (45%)
• Public on Under: 42-26 (62%)
• Money on Under: 58-41 (58%)
• Sharp Diff on Under: 77-48 (62%)

Now, we are the only people who provide deep recaps on these numbers like this every week; but, we are also the only sports betting brand that will dive deeper into these numbers and tell you important ranges that trends emerge from the already crazy trends you see above. 

The major thing I want to make note of for Week 12, is the fact that the public had one of its worst weeks of the year in Week 11, yet has started 3-1 in Week 12. Week 7 was a 5-win week for the public, as was Week 11. In Week 8, after the worst week for the public all season, they bounced back for an 8-6 Week 8. Over the rest of the games today and based on this information, I am expecting close to a 6-6 record for the rest of the week.

Looking at it again too, nearly everything did poorly last week. The public went 5-8, the money went 4-9, and the sharp differential went 4-9. Something has got to give, and hopefully, a lot of the season-long trends we have been tracking, begin to close out the year strong.

For example, through week 11, when the sharp differential has been between 10 and 14 % on a team, those teams are 22-7 ATS, which continues to be the best trend this year! However, the good thing about doing this week in and week out, is we get to monitor how each of the metrics performs, consistently. This trend went 0-1 on Thanksgiving and the sharp differential in general went 1-3 on Thanksgiving/Black Friday, so maybe today is the day this trend comes back to normal (26-19 ATS in 2022).

Other crazy trends include a 44-20 record when the under is between a 5-19% sharp differential (2-3 in week 11). Money percentages on the over are 5-19 (0-2 in Week 11) below 60%, but 18-18 above that number. Public backing the over greater than 70% is 7-18 (0-2 in Week 11). There is so much cool stuff to derive from this information, whether you want to believe it or not. We even have specific trends for specific teams, like the public is 7-1 backing the Dolphins this year, wild! 

From a spread standpoint, with the public remaining the talk of the town we need to understand what that means. The public is more than 30 games better than they were at this point in 2022, so is the general betting public smarter? Are lines getting worse, where more people can take advantage? So many questions can be derived from the one point of the public performing well, and that has been a point of emphasis in the recent episodes of Sharpen The Public. Personally, I think it’s beginning to turn around.

After their worst week in a while, I think the public stays negative on Sundays. The Thanksgiving Day games proved another year of the public doing well when they get together to bet with each other. However, that does not mean they have to do hot on Sunday as well. Like I said before, I am thinking something like 6-6 from the public for today and tomorrow, keeping things good for the week, but bad for their overall season trends.

Also, I think a very positive second half of the year is coming for other trends like the money percentage and sharp differential. Last year, we saw significantly profitable trends come out of the larger sharp differentials, and sides with greater than 65% of the money. Yet, through this point in 2023, those same metrics have been performing poorly. However, over the last few weeks, it seems like larger sharp differentials and higher money percentages are picking it up, which indicates that things are turning around (maybe even more so after a bad Week 11 from the money and sharp differential). Also, keep in mind totals went 4-0 to the OVER in Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday games this week.

Every game is different, and I want that to be clear. However, as we continue to track the general public betting trends over the season, we will have more information than the average bettor, and we don’t need much logic to bet better than them. Anyway, let’s get into the picks because I cannot wait for this slate!

Note that I am writing this around 10:00 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider sticking around and subscribing!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Indianapolis Colts  (-2.5), Total 45.5

I don’t like seeing the Colts as favorites, I’m not sure they deserve that. After the way this Bucs team played the Niners last week, I think they are inches from blowing a game open, and if there is any defense to do it against, it is that of the Colts. The Colts are a middle-of-the-pack defense per points scored, but allow some of the most plays and most yards of any NFL team. So, I think if Baker and this Bucs offense can play like they played against the much better Niners defense last week (in Santa Clara), I love them as road dogs in this spot. The Bucs defense is going to need to create pressure on Minshew and turn the ball over because Garnders has 7 turnover-worthy plays this year – indicating the Bucs may get one or two here on the road. I am nervous about the Bucs’ defense being banged up (Jamal Dean and Lavonte David), so I also lean the over. However, I want to play the Bucs with White expected to play and this bad Colts rush defense.

The Play:  Bucs +3 -110 (1u)

Carolina Panthers vs Tennessee Titans (-3), Total 36.5

In Week 12, there are some ugly games. The Panthers and Titans matchup today is one of the ugliest. The total is set at 36.5, which should tell us enough, but for some reason, I think the Titans have a superior edge in this one. For starters, the Titans have lost two straight games at home, and now get to host one of the league’s worst offenses. The Panthers come in averaging slightly above 16 points per game and rank dead last in yards per game. If there was ever a time for Vrabel to show us why he deserves to be in the best of the best coaching discussions every year, it is games like this. As for the Titans’ offense, this is a dream matchup because Derrick Henry should be used to his full potential. The Carolina defense allows the second most rushing touchdowns per game and is 32nd in rush defense DVOA. It is going to be an ugly one in Tennessee, and the sharp differential is on the Panthers as I write this. However, I think this is a must-win for the Titans, and I love that some books are posting the -3, I don’t love it at 3.5.

The Play: Titans -3 -120 (1u)

New England Patriots vs New York Giants (+4), Total 34

I hate everything about this game, yet I like the Patriots in this spot. The question is why the hell are we backing the Patriots as road favorites? I think in this matchup we are getting the Giants at their absolute peak. Tommy DeVito gets a win against a division rival, but then the entire fan base questions why are we winning games. On the other side of the ball, Bill’s legacy is at stake with every passing moment. The Patriots are severely banged up on defense and have numerous questions at quarterback. However, their rushing offense is quietly improving, averaging over 100+ yards in their last 5 games. In case you were wondering, the Giants have an abysmal rush defense that ranks in the bottom third for nearly every rushing category available. On the other side of things, the only thing the Giants did well in their game against the commanders, was run the ball. The Patriots actually have a decent rush defense, and with an extra week to prepare and reasons to win (Bill’s win record), I can’t not bet the Patriots here. 

The Play: Patriots -4 (1u) -110

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders (+9.5), Total 43.5

After losing to the Eagles, the Chiefs find themselves in a divisional matchup against the new-look Raiders. I expect the Chiefs offense to come out swinging in this one, but the Raiders defense has been sneakily pretty good this year. They’ve allowed only 2.9 red zone attempts per game (top third of the NFL) and 9 of their 10 games this season have gone under the total for this one. With it being on the road for KC, I don’t expect things to perfectly click on offense or for them to effortlessly move the ball. I expect their defense will also make some statements in this one to lock in the win. The Chiefs lead the league in third-down defense and nearly top of the league in every rushing defensive metric. The Raiders are trying to establish a run-dominant offense with Antonio Pierce at the helm, but that will be difficult today on their home turf. I think things stay close enough where the spread will come into play, but I don’t think many explosive plays will lead to this one going over the total. The money and sharp differential love this play, which fits us into trends of 58-41 and 77-48 to the under.

The Play: Under 43.5 -110 (1u)

Plays without a writeup:

• Bengals+8.5/Falcons +8.5 Teaser
• Browns/Broncos U37 -110 1u

The Leans (May take some of these closer to kickoff)

After getting such an incredible response to start the season this year, I think I want to continue to give out my leans in games that I am not even betting on because it may help others with their decisions. So if you have seen my recent Reddit posts you will see that I update these as the weeks go on. Based on all the current public betting information, here is what I am thinking for Week 12 of the NFL!

• Jaguars/Texans – I really like the Jaguars to cover in this spot on the road, as i think they are a step above the Texans. However, a lot of my research is pointing me towards the Texans, so I am staying away.
• Rams/Cardinals – I like the Rams to beat this bad Cardinals team as divisional road favorites, but I am not sold yet on their defense. Come 4 pm, I may think otherwise.
• Bills/Eagles – I want to lean Eagles like I did on the podcast, but my bias may be too much here. My research points towards the Bills, so I am staying away for now. It’s supposed to rain as well, so like the under.
• Week 11 Article | Podcast | YouTube

Thanks for reading! If you guys like what you see or have any comments/critiques, please let me know on Twitter, I appreciate all feedback. Please also follow the podcast and share the website! I will see you on Tuesday with another recap episode of Sharpen the Public.

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This is an article written by DJ Bianco