NFL Week 12 Betting Preview

Thanksgiving Football is on the horizon as the NFL Week 12 Betting Preview features plenty of early betting angles.

Week 12 of the NFL has arrived and we’ve got three Thanksgiving games to kick off the usual football betting slate.  All 32 teams are active this week with no one on bye, and that means there is plenty to break down, analyze, and bet on!  Whether you are showing your family and friends how to bet on football while at Thanksgiving, or are sitting on the couch with a group that is all actively invested in the game, this article will help you be ready with a few best bets and analysis to power through the occasional awkward conversation as the holiday season gets kicked off.

The Packers travel to Detroit to go up against their division rivals and a staple of Thanksgiving football the Lions.  After that, the Cowboys host the Commanders in another double-digit spread game for the Cowboys that I do not want to touch with a ten-foot pole.  I am looking forward to diving into the prop bet markets and fantasy sites for that game, as a spread that large on a short week gives me some reservations.  You can utilize some of our sign-up bonuses with different sportsbooks and fantasy sites here or by following the link down below.

Last but not least, the Niners travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks in what will be an electric atmosphere for the Thanksgiving night game.  With Kenneth Walker and Geno Smith both getting banged up in the game prior versus the Rams, it is surprising that this matchup is not one of the games with a bigger spread.  The average game total has been much lower than normal this season, but it is reassuring that all three of these games, even with all of them being divisional matchups, have totals in the mid-to-high-40s.  

I will be giving out plays on the Sharpen The Public podcast early this week, and will be giving out plays on Twitter throughout the day of Thanksgiving as well.  Be sure to subscribe to the podcast so you never miss an episode, and follow me @AndyHHSports so you never miss a play!  With that introduction out of the way, let’s jump right into the action.

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San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks Week 12 Thanksgiving Betting Preview

Lumen Field | Seattle, WA

49ers -6.5

Total:  43.5

As things began to spiral out of control for the Niners in the month of October, they have started to get things back on track with wins over the Jaguars and Buccaneers following their Week 9 bye.  Brock Purdy was being questioned and judged by fans and members of the media alike, but it was clear that it was difficult for the young quarterback to operate without some of his best teammates helping him out.  Deebo Samuel missed games against the Vikings and Bengals after getting injured in the Niners’ loss to the Browns, while Trent Williams also missed the Minnesota and Cincinnati games.  

Now that the Niners are healthy again and have multiple avenues of creative ways to attack the opposing defense, they are seemingly all the way back on track as they head to face a Seattle team that can’t say the same.  Kenneth Walker went out for the Seahawks on Sunday and did not return to the game, while Geno Smith ultimately returned following his injury but is already in question if he can play on a short week.  With the offense potentially missing two of their best weapons, and the defense left a lot to be desired this season compared to last, I like the Niners to win by more than a touchdown here on the road.

Third downs are going to be pivotal for the Seahawks in this matchup, as the Niners are converting on third down at a 45% rate this season which ranks in the top 5 of the league, as opposed to Seattle who are allowing the same rate on defense which is good for a bottom 3 rank in the NFL in that category.  Seattle is not overly special defending the rush or the pass, ranking in the bottom third of the league in both statistical yards per game.  Finally, Seattle is dead last in the league in allowing their opponent time of possession, as the offense is only on the field 45% of the time for the Seahawks which ranks dead last.  The Niners are going to have ample opportunities to take advantage of their rivals here, and I think this number will be on the move throughout the week crossing over that pivotal key number of 7.

Give me the Niners here to cover -6.5, with the juice on FanDuel and BetOnline sitting at -115.  Other books have opened this market at 7, which makes me think things are trending that way very soon with the Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker injury news still an uncertainty just hours after their game concluded.

The Play:  Niners -6.5 (-115) – 1 Unit

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons NFL Betting Preview for Week 12

Mercedes-Benz Stadium | Atlanta, GA

Pick ‘Em

Total:  41.5

The Saints and Falcons are both coming off of their bye week and will have had plenty of time to prep for this divisional showdown.  It has not been the most entertaining season for the NFC South, but this game will prove to be quite significant as the Saints and Falcons scrap for a top spot in their division.  The season has been so underwhelming for both sides as the defenses have proved to be above expectation but the other side of the ball has proven to be all kinds of disappointing for both teams.

The Saints and Derek Carr have not had the easiest of times thus far.  New Orleans are only averaging 21.4 points per game which ranks in the bottom half of the league, and despite ranking in the Top 5 in completions per game, the Saints are 23rd in the NFL in yards per completion at 9.6 a catch.  As a result, we have seen Chris Olave underperform by his standards after a breakout rookie campaign last year, and Michael Thomas has not looked like the receiver we knew and loved in fantasy before injuries plagued his last couple of years.  Alvin Kamara has been spectacular once again for New Orleans, with a lot of the shorter passes going to Alvin, but this will be an area that Atlanta looks to stop up.

Atlanta’s defense has surprised in some areas this season after being below average for so long, with Jessie Bates and Nate Landman to thank.  Landman and the inside linebacker corps will look to stop Kamara and company, as the defensive line has still left a lot to be desired for Atlanta which will play in Derek Carr’s favor.  However, will he do anything about it?

We know that for how messy the Saints offense has been, the Falcons has been equally difficult to watch.  Bijan Robinson looked to be the savior of this offense but had struggled the four weeks prior to the Cardinals game before he got back on track with 22 carries, 95 rushing yards, and a touchdown.  Arthur Smith made the change of Desmond Ridder to Taylor Heinicke, and it was not as much of an upgrade as one may expect.  Atlanta ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in points per game, only scoring 18.9 a contest.

The Saints and Falcons have been pretty strong under teams this season, with New Orleans 7-3 to the under and Atlanta 6-4 as well.  The total in this one is likely to get bet down, but that is not a bad thing as we have seen from the data presented in the Sharpen The Public podcast.  With the Public and Sharp percentages on the under hitting at above a 60% clip this season, I am not afraid of being on the same side as everyone in this one.  Give me Under 41.5 before this number moves even lower, as neither of these teams likes to score the ball and both defenses have shown some promise throughout the year – as highlighted by how good these teams are at cashing in unders in 2023.

The Play:  Under 41.5 (-110) – 1 Unit

THIS IS AN ARTICLE WRITTEN BY ANDY CHASE