NFL Week 13 Best Bets and Analysis

NFL Week 13 Best Bets and Analysis

Well, Thanksgiving and Black Friday have come and gone, and we still have a full NFL slate to think about on another glorious Sunday. The Public killed it last week with one of their best weeks to date, will it continue into this fun Week 13?

NFL Week 13 has swiftly arrived and as always we are here to bring you the best betting trends, information, and predictions to prepare you for the slate. Here you will find the best ways to bet on premier matchups like the Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers or the possible game-of-the-year matchup in the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles..

I need a significant bounce back after going 2-8 in Week 12. My worst week ever giving out picks in my articles. It never is fun to go through, but losses are part of sports betting. However, I am excited about the games today. I think I see the board well today, which should make for a great day of football. We will see what the public thinks though because they are still killing it as they are now nearly 20 games above .500 on the year.

Per usual we will take this point a bit further later, but through the first seven weeks, the public is a staggering 96-78 ATS (a 55% win percentage). I talked about it a lot on the recent podcasts, but after week 12 last year, the money began to take it up a notch, so I am expecting a big turnaround for them in this later half of the year. Also, last year the sharp differential killed it at the beginning of the year. Now, it is the opposite. 

If you are new here, welcome to Happy Hour Sports, my name is DJ and I track how the public and money do each week in the NFL. We want to take the phrase “fade the public” further because everyone talks about the betting public and money data, but when those numbers are brought up, there is no context around them. People assume high tickets on one side is bad, and high money on the other side is good. However, we are here to prove those claims right or wrong, every single week.

Our goal with Sharpen the Public and the weekly articles on this website is to provide context to the numbers and develop discourse regarding the data. If you are ever curious as to when the public does good, or what sharp differentials are strong indicators that a bet is the sharp side, then you have come to the right place. Follow the podcast and listen to us break everything down each week! 

With that out of the way, it’s time to get into this week’s best bets and analysis. Here you will find the bets that I place every week and some discussion on why I am taking most of them. We’re not trying to be those Twitter handicappers that scream max play at you, we want you to trust us. Don’t forget you can always find my recaps of the weeks here as well – detailing where things went wrong and how I did. Last week was another my worst of the year as I said at 2-8, but we are still having a great year. Need a good bounce back here in week 13 though.

It’s already week 13  and the games and data are beginning to stack up. We have all of last year to help influence our picks for this year and with the influx of bettors entering the market (evidenced by the bet totals last week); the sky’s the limit for where we can take our information and bets. 

Deej Record from Week 8: 

  • Bets: 2-8
  • Leans: bad

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Week 13 NFL Betting Trends

Since we are already through week 12, that means we have official data to report regarding the public betting trends to influence our Week 13 bets. Check out the full recap article and many other NFL pieces at our NFL BETTING PICKS. Additionally, the recent podcasts always break down the updates to the trends. If you missed that, here they are:

  • Public Betting Percentage:96-78 ATS (55%)
  • Money Betting Percentage: 90-84 ATS (52%)
  • Sharp Differential: 87-87 ATS (50%)
  • Public on Over: 42-56 (43%)
  • Money on Over: 28-39 (42%)
  • Sharp Diff. on Over: 18-19 (49%)
  • Public on Under: 46-29 (61%)
  • Money on Under: 63-45 (58%)
  • Sharp Diff on Under: 83-54 (61%)

Now, we are the only people who provide deep recaps on these numbers like this every week; but, we are also the only sports betting brand that will dive deeper into these numbers and tell you important ranges that trends emerge from the already crazy trends you see above. 

The major thing I want to make note of for Week 13, is the fact that after the public had one of its worst weeks of the year in Week 11, it bounced back AGAIN for an all-time week in Week 13. It’s had great weeks followed by more great weeks already this year, although, as Andy and I discussed on the podcast, I think this is where we begin to see consistent poor performances from the public. I don’t believe the public will end up positive on the year, and I expect the other metrics to have a good end of the season.

Although I think the public will do worse, that does not mean there is reason to back or fade, any certain ranges of public confidence. Across the board, anything above 50% of the tickets has done really well this year. Even more surprisingly, the larger public games (higher than 60% of the tickets) have gone 15 games over .500 – just incredible. So, if you’re looking to solely fade the public, you have had a horrible year.

Looking at other metrics, through week 12, when the sharp differential has been between 10 and 14 % on a team, those teams are 24-8 ATS, which continues to be the best trend ATS this year! However, the good thing about doing this week in and week out, is we get to monitor how each of the metrics performs, consistently. This trend went 2-1 in Week 23 and the sharp differential in general went 7-9 in Week 23, so maybe today is the day this trend comes back to normal (26-19 ATS in 2022).

Other crazy trends include a 48-22 record when the under is between a 5-19% sharp differential (4-2 in week 11), we accidentally dubbed this the Double D trend on the podcast this week. Money percentages on the over are 7-20 (2-1 in Week 12) below 60%, but 21-19 above that number. Public backing the over greater than 70% is 9-19 (2-1 in Week 12). There is so much cool stuff to derive from this information, whether you want to believe it or not. We even have specific trends for specific teams, like the public is 7-1 backing the Dolphins this year, wild! 

From a spread standpoint, with the public remaining the talk of the town we need to understand what that means. The public is more than 30 games better than they were at this point in 2022, so is the general betting public smarter? Are lines getting worse, where more people can take advantage? So many questions can be derived from the one point of the public performing well, and that has been a point of emphasis in the recent episodes of Sharpen The Public. I think it’s beginning to turn around, although I have been saying that for many weeks.

After their best week in a while, I think the public begins to lose in on these next Sundays. The Thanksgiving Day games proved another year of the public doing well when they got together to bet with each other, and they continued to kill it the following Sunday. The public lost this Thursday when the Seahawks covered against the Cowboys. Despite my not going back to look, I feel like the Thursday games are good indicators of what is coming in the week.

Also, for other trends like the money percentage and sharp differential, I still think a very positive second half of the year is coming, and now is the time for it. Last year, we saw significantly profitable trends come out of the larger sharp differentials, and sides with greater than 65% of the money. Yet, through this point in 2023, those same metrics have been performing poorly. However, over the last few weeks, it seems like larger sharp differentials and higher money percentages are picking it up, which indicates maybe things are turning around (maybe even more so after a bad Week 12 from the money and sharp differential).

Every game is different, and I want that to be clear. However, as we continue to track the general public betting trends over the season, we will have more information than the average bettor, and we don’t need much logic to bet better than them. Anyway, let’s get into the picks because I cannot wait for this slate!

Note that I am writing this around 11:00 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider sticking around and subscribing!

Week 13 NFL Best Bets and Analysis

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders  (+9.5), Total 49.5

Plainly put, how can we turn our heads around on home dogs of nearly 10 points? I know the situation is a bit scary with this Miami high-powered offense and a Commanders team that comes out flat more often than not. However, the Commanders’ offense is good – when there is a lack of pressure on the quarterback. Sam Howell has a 97.4 QBR with a clean pocket, but a 64.7 QBR under pressure. It has been pretty clear this year that he leads the league in passing yards and sacks, which is truly impressive. Although, to me, that indicates the Washnginton offense does a lot of things well, and we have seen them do that against good teams – like the Eagles. As for the Dolphins, with everything going right for them this year, they have not been great on the road. Yes, they find ways to win, like last week against the Jets. However, before that they had 3 consecutive losses on the road, putting up only 14, 17, and 20 points in each contest. The Commanders could come out and surprise some people today in rainy Washington DC. There is reason this number won’t get to 10.

The Play:  Commanders +9.5 -110 (1u)

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots (+5), Total 39.5

Bailey Zappe gets to welcome Justin Herbert and the Chargers to Foxborough in his first game starting in 2023. I actually lean toward the Patriots here in this one, as I don’t think the Chargers should be 5 or 6-point favorites to anyone on the road. However, I am more interested in the total. In the matchup of two teams with the worst ATS records in the NFL, this is going to be an ugly game. For what everyone talks about on the Chargers’ offense, they only rank around the middle of the pack in overall offense. It has been pretty clear the issues on the offensive side of the ball are not Herbert’s fault as the wide receivers are all injured, and when he does get the new ones the ball – it’s dropped. The Patriots on the other hand are another team decimated by injuries, but they cannot score points to begin with. The defense ranks 28th in PFF grades, but they have also had one of the hardest schedules to date (3rd). I expect the Chargers to have a rough time running the ball in this one, given the Pats’ decent run defense. The slow gameplay will make it tough to move the ball for LAC, and we all know that Zappe won’t put up their share of the points, even against this porous Chargers D. The public is slamming the over, with the sharp differential towards the under, which makes it a classic Sharpen the Public under.

The Play:  Under 39.5  -102 (1u)

Atlanta Falcons vs New York Jets (+2), Total 33.5

Who are the Falcons to be favored on the road, again? This is going to be one of, if not the most, ugliest game on the slate. In the matchup of dreams, we have Desmond Ridder vs Tim Boyle. The story in any Jets game, though, is their defense. From what we have seen all year from this top-rated defense, I don’t see how Desmond Ridder will be able to move the ball at all. The question becomes, how can the Jets put up points? They have one of the worst-ranking offenses in the league, but luckily for them, the AFC South-leading Falcons are 29th worst in passing defense DVOA. If there was any time to have a Tim Boyke coming-out party, it is today against the Falcons. The Falcons are going to have to run the ball to keep the ball out of Ridder’s hands, so I expect everything to go slow today in New Jersey. The public is split on the spread, but the sharp differential favors the Jets, and money continues to slam on the under. The Jets are overall a better team than the Falcons, despite the years they have had. I think the Jets managed to turn the Falcons over a bit today and gain some confidence in their season.

The Play: Jets +2.5 (1u) -115 AND Under 33.5 (1u) -110

San Francisco 49ers vs Philadelphia Eagles (+3), Total 46.5

In the best matchup of the day, my Eagles take on the Niners at home and are underdogs. I am incredibly nervous about this one, our defense is not as good as it was last year, and the Niners are looking for some serious revenge. When the Niners have been healthy this year, they look completely unstoppable, and the numbers prove it too, no team is more efficient than the 49ers. Add that to the very banged-up defensive side of the Eagles, and it looks like it could be a recipe for disaster in the city of Brotherly Love. However, because I think the 49ers offense will have their way today, I really like the over. The Eagles have not shown any evidence that they are a team that will get blown out at home, even against this strong 49ers defense. The Niners just lost Hufanga, so they may have some unexpected gaps in the middle of their own defense. The Eagles have also scored over 25 points in a majority of their games this year, and actually every home game. This is a game of the year candidate, and one everyone should be glued to. The NFL needs some entertainment, and this game will give it. 

The Play: Over 46.5 -110 (1u)

Plays without a writeup:

  • Steelers -0.5/Titans +7.5 Teaser – Home teams with sharp diff. On their side/teams I love this week

The Leans (May take some of these closer to kickoff)

After getting such an incredible response to start the season this year, I think I want to continue to give out my leans in games that I am not even betting on because it may help others with their decisions. So if you have seen my recent Reddit posts you will see that I update these as the weeks go on. Based on all the current public betting information, here is what I am thinking for Week 13 of NFL!

    • Lions/Saints – I, like everyone else, believe the Lions will bounce back against the Saints. However, the Saints may have figured things out on offense and have reason to fight for the AFC South title. I don’t love backing Goff on the road as a favorite.
    • Broncos/Texans – The number here is the issue, I like both of these teams, but cannot quite get behind either at 2.5/3.5. I lean toward the Broncos as a surging dog, but am staying away.
    • Panthers/Bucs – I refuse to touch this game, I like the Bucs and the under.
    • Browns/Rams – Looked at this one for a long time, but would feel like I am forcing a play. I like the Rams, but numbers show otherwise.

 

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Thanks for reading! If you guys like what you see or have any comments/critiques, please let me know on Twitter, I appreciate all feedback. Please also follow the podcast and share the website! I will see you on Tuesday with another recap episode of Sharpen the Public.

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This is an article written by DJ Bianco

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