NFL Week 13 Betting Preview and Breakdown – Best Bets and Analysis for NFL Betting & More

 

Thanksgiving is now behind us and we are into the final third of the NFL season, which means it is time to kick off our NFL Week 13 betting!  Following a week where all 32 teams were active providing plenty of NFL betting action, we have the biggest group of teams off since Week 7 with six teams taking a break.  The Ravens, Bills, Bears, Raiders, Vikings, and Giants are all off, which not only gives us fewer NFL betting markets to find the best bets for but also is likely a fantasy hurdle for many of us.

In Week 13 there are plenty of matchups that will be crucial for the playoff picture that has begun to take shape, including games like the Lions traveling to New Orleans, the Broncos heading to Houston, and the Niners venturing to Philadelphia on Sunday.  We even were gifted some solid prime-time games with the Cowboys taking on the Seahawks this Thursday, the Chiefs flying into Lambeau Field on Sunday night to face the Packers, and the Bengals heading into Jacksonville as 7.5-point underdogs without Burrow.  For only thirteen games – the slate is not as bad as some of the others we have seen in weeks prior!

 

If you haven’t already, be sure to tune into the Sharpen The Public NFL Betting podcast as I will give out plays there every week when the episode releases on Fridays, and follow me on Twitter @AndyHHSports.  Last week I went 2-0 in our Week 12 Early Best Bets article, with the podcast plays I gave out going the opposite direction of 0-3.  Hoping for better luck behind the mic this week, but let’s keep the good luck rolling on Early Best Bets as we build on a 6-2-1 streak for 4.525 units of profit over the last four weeks!

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Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans – AFC South Divisional Betting Matchup & Best Bet

Colts -1.5

Total:  42.5

 

Last week on the Sharpen The Public podcast I gave out the Bucs to take down my Colts and ended up having to pay for it.  Surprisingly, this was the first time I had lost betting for or against Indianapolis this season, as I was 5-0 siding with or fading the Colts in 2023 thus far before Week 12.  With the very close pulse I have been able to keep on this team, I feel very confident in the Colts doing well in their divisional matchup against the Titans this coming Sunday.

The Tennessee Titans are coming off a close 17-10 win as they hosted the one-win Carolina Panthers last week, in a game where the defense helped generate their first score putting them in a close position.  Let me be clear:  Bryce Young and his lack of offensive support helped this Titans’ team secure the win – not the Titans themselves.  The Colts offensive line will be able to support Gardner Minshew and Jonathan Taylor much better than Carolina’s did for Young, and with Pittman and Downs continuing to roll, I don’t see a path for the Titans to stop one of the NFL’s most consistent highest scoring units.

These two teams faced off already on October 8th, in a 23-16 Colts victory in Lucas Oil Stadium.  The Colts are 3-1 ATS on the road this season and have covered the spread in their last three.  Indy may be one of the more surprising teams in the current AFC Playoff Picture, but it is a testament to how Shane Steichen has continued to keep this offense firing on all cylinders, paired with how easy the schedule has been for the Colts.  Indianapolis has scored at least twenty points this season in every game except for their 10-point Frankfurt outing against the Patriots which they won 10-6.

The matchups in this AFC South divisional game also favor the Colts heavily, with plenty of gaps in the Titan offensive line for Ebukam, Buckner, and Paye to take advantage of on the Colts’ defensive line.  The absence of Shaquille Leonard was highly criticized, however, the other positions around where Leonard played at corner, strong safety, and his linebacking partner EJ Speed have all stepped up and will give Will Levis plenty of trouble.  It was ugly in the month of October where the Colts allowed 31.8 points per game, but in the month of November against easier competition similar to the Titans, the Colts have turned it around only allowing 13 points per game in three outings.

On offense, Michael Pittman will get the matchup against Sean Murphy-Bunting.  However, I would look for Josh Downs and Jonathan Taylor as both will have fantastic mismatches in the slot and through the left side of the Colts’ offensive line respectively.  Before this week, the Titans had allowed a 68.87% opponent completion percentage, 7.3 yards per pass to the opposition, and 230.8 passing yards a game – all good for the bottom 34% of league-wide stats.  Give me the Colts here on a short spread that is already moving.  I like Indianapolis all the way up to 3 points, and right now you can get Indy at -1.5 on Fanduel, BetRivers, and Parx as I write this Sunday night.

 

The Play:  Colts -1.5 (-115) – 1.25 Units

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Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints Betting Analysis and more

Lions -3.5

Total:  44.5

 

The Lions fell victim to the Waxing Gibbous moon phase, their annual Thanksgiving curse, or a red-hot Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur on Thursday morning in a 29-22 upset loss.  They now have ten days of rest to prep for their trip to New Orleans to take on a Saints team that cannot seem to get anything right.  The only player consistently putting up numbers for the Saints is Alvin Kamara right now, while Derek Carr and the rest of the offense have continued to let down what has been a strong defense by New Orleans all season long.

I like the Detroit Lions here despite having the hook at the end of that three on their spread.  The Saints’ defense has slipped up from their stellar start to the 2023 season, allowing 24.3 points per game over the last six weeks of action compared to the 15.2 points per game allowed in the first five weeks.  Detroit has been one of the top offenses in the league largely in part to David Montgomery and the surging Jahmyr Gibbs, and I believe that this two-headed rushing attack paired with a bounceback from Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown should help the Lions here to take advantage of their 10 days of prep.  The Saints were allowing 4.3 yards per rush and 113.6 rush yards per game before Sunday’s game against the Falcons, but then Atlanta hung 228 rushing yards on New Orleans with Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and Cordarelle Patterson.

With how dynamic the Lions rushing has been this season, I do not see a way that the Saints are able to stop the run as they suffered so heavily to three backs on Sunday against the Falcons.  On top of this, the Lions should win the battle defensively in the trenches as the Saints only have two offensive linemen rated above the 57th percentile according to Pro Football Focus.  Aidan Hutchinson, Alex Anzalone, and Romeo Okwara should all be able to feast on a Saints offensive line that has not supported Derek Carr very much but has been sufficient enough to get Alvin Kamara his touches and short passes.

Give me the Lions here in a nice bounce-back spot and on a spread that I think could move to 4 or 4-and-a-half by kickoff on Sunday.

 

The Play:  Lions -3.5 (-110) – 1 Unit