NFL Week 14 Best Bets and Analysis

At this point, I think we have to reconcile and say the public is just good this year. They have been killing it all season, and just when I think they are going to go back to their losing ways, they have another positive week. This Week 14 slate may make it more difficult for them, though.

NFL Week 14 has quickly arrived and as always we are here to bring you the best betting trends, information, and predictions to prepare you for the slate. Here you will find the best ways to bet on premier matchups like the Los Angeles Rams and the Baltimore Ravens or the possible game-of-the-year matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs.

I asked for a significant bounce back after my worst week ever giving out plays, and I had a 3-3 Sunday. Not the most exciting, but on the right track we can say. First things first, favorites and the public continue to be the story of 2023. Favorites have covered over the underdogs significantly more times in the past few weeks, and it is one of the reasons the public is doing so well.

Per usual we will take this point a bit further later, but through the first seven weeks, the public is a staggering 104-83 ATS (a 56% win percentage). The lack of star power at quarterback is a major reason, in my opinion, as to why the public is covering at a remarkable rate. When teams cannot even put up a fight, it makes it more difficult to cover. Often the teams that need to put up fights are the underdogs, so put those two points together, and boom we have several great weeks from the public as evidence.

However, as is sports betting, the books will always manage to catch up. Especially, if they are on the losing end too many times. So, as this year comes to a close – expect lines that are not what you may think.

As for the other metrics we track here, I think we can trust in the sharp differential and the money percentage here in the back half of the year. I talked about it a lot on the recent podcasts, but after week 12 last year, the money began to take it up a notch, so I am expecting a big turnaround for them in this later half of the year. Also, last year the sharp differential killed it at the beginning of the year. Now, it is the opposite, and time for it to come back to positive. 

If you are new here, welcome to Happy Hour Sports, my name is DJ and I track how the public and money do each week in the NFL. We want to take the phrase “fade the public” further because everyone talks about the betting public and money data, but when those numbers are brought up, there is no context around them. People assume high tickets on one side is bad, and high money on the other side is good. However, we are here to prove those claims right or wrong, every single week.

Our goal with Sharpen the Public and the weekly articles on this website is to provide context to the numbers and develop discourse regarding the data. If you are ever curious as to when the public does good, or what sharp differentials are strong indicators that a bet is the sharp side, then you have come to the right place. Follow the podcast and listen to us break everything down each week! 

With that out of the way, it’s time to get into this week’s best bets and analysis. Here you will find the bets that I place every week and some discussion on why I am taking most of them. We’re not trying to be those Twitter handicappers that scream max play at you, we want you to trust us. Don’t forget you can always find my recaps of the weeks here as well – detailing where things went wrong and how I did. Last week was not the worst, but a step in the right direction as I went 3-4.

It’s already week 14 and the games and data are beginning to stack up. We have all of last year to help influence our picks for this year and with the influx of bettors entering the market (evidenced by the bet totals last week); the sky’s the limit for where we can take our information and bets. 

Deej Record from Week 8: 

• Bets: 3-4
• Leans: 3-1

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Since we are already through week 13, that means we have official data to report regarding the public betting trends to influence our Week 14 bets. Check out the full recap article and many other NFL pieces at our NFL BETTING PICKS. Additionally, the recent podcasts always break down the updates to the trends. If you missed that, here they are:

• Public Betting Percentage: 104-83 ATS (56%)
• Money Betting Percentage: 98-89 ATS (52%)
• Sharp Differential: 95-92 ATS (51%)
• Public on Over: 47-58 (45%)
• Money on Over: 33-41 (45%)
• Sharp Diff. on Over: 23-20 (52%)
• Public on Under: 48-33 (59%)
• Money on Under: 65-49 (57%)
• Sharp Diff on Under: 86-58 (60%)

Now, we are the only people who provide deep recaps on these numbers like this every week; but, we are also the only sports betting brand that will dive deeper into these numbers and tell you important ranges that trends emerge from the already crazy trends you see above. 

The major thing I want to make note of for Week 14, is the fact that aside from the public doing well over the year. They are even better when there is more than 60% of the bets on one side. Generally, the betting public (aka whenever there are more tickets on one team than another) is 19 games over .500. They are 16 games over .500 when there are more than 60% of the tickets on one side, a true public team.

This is evidence to me that we are seeing a very interesting thing happen in the NFL. Specifically with the quality of the teams. The spread, or number, becomes less important when the variance in the team’s competence increases. So, historically consistent trends that you would think the public would not follow, like backing home underdogs or something similar, are not hitting as consistently this year. Couple many differing factors throughout an entire NFL season, and you have what we see now – Public Dominance.

Now clearly, this is only my opinion. However, I want to be the one to have the discourse about the public betting data. I think it is so interesting, and one of the main reasons I come back to you guys every week. Although I think the public will do worse to end the year, that does not mean there is reason to back or fade, any certain ranges of public confidence. So, I will be looking to follow other metrics like the sharps and money as we close out the 2023 season.

Looking at other metrics, through week 13, when the sharp differential has been between 10 and 14 % on a team, those teams are 26-10 ATS, which continues to be the best trend ATS this year! The good thing about doing this week in and week out, is we get to monitor how each of the metrics performs, consistently. This trend went 2-2 in Week 13 and the sharp differential in general went 8-5 in Week 13. I think the sharp differential continues to climb. 

Other crazy trends include a 51-25 record when the under is between a 5-19% sharp differential (3-3 in week 13), we accidentally dubbed this the Double D trend on the podcast this week. Money percentages on the over went 4-1 over 60% this week, and as overs continue to hit – I expect this trend to remain consistent. We even have specific trends for specific teams, like the public is 8-1 backing the Dolphins this year, wild! 

From a spread standpoint, with the public remaining the talk of the town we need to understand what that means. The public is more than 30 games better than they were at this point in 2022, so is the general betting public smarter? Are lines getting worse, where more people can take advantage? So many questions can be derived from the one point of the public performing well, and that has been a point of emphasis in the recent episodes of Sharpen The Public. 

After another peak like a stock, I think the public begins to lose in on these next Sundays. They are on their way down from their high in Week 12 of 10 wins, and in Week 13 they dropped to 8 wins. The public did cover again on Thursday when the Pats beat the Steelers, and I feel like the Thursday games are good indicators of what is coming in the week. So maybe this is not the week of the public’s demise.

Also, for other trends like the money percentage and sharp differential, I still think a very positive second half of the year is coming, and now is the time for it. Last year, we saw significantly profitable trends come out of the larger sharp differentials, and sides with greater than 65% of the money. Yet, through this point in 2023, those same metrics have been performing poorly. However, over the last few weeks, it seems like larger sharp differentials and higher money percentages are picking it up, which indicates maybe things are turning around, just like what we saw in Week 13.

Every game is different, and I want that to be clear. However, as we continue to track the general public betting trends over the season, we will have more information than the average bettor, and we don’t need much logic to bet better than them. Anyway, let’s get into the picks because I cannot wait for this slate!

Note that I am writing this around 9:30 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider sticking around and subscribing!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons (-2), Total 41

I think these are two divisional teams that are trending in completely different directions. The Bucs are trending downwards failing to cover in their last two, and barely beating the Panthers. While the Falcons have won and covered in their last two, and now get a chance at home to take down a division rival. The last time these teams played, it was a bit of a barn burner where the Falcons lost 16-13 outside in the Tampa Bay elements. Looking at the Falcons’ record this year, they are significantly better at home, and the stats show it too. They average 23 at home compared to under 15 on the road. Since week 6, the Bucs’ defense has also been bottom of the league (28th) in EPA/play, so they are (like I said) trending downwards. The Falcons’ defense is going to need to make some plays, but as long as Desmond Ridder manages to not turn the ball over, they should not have any issues covering this spread at home. For clarity, the spread was 2.5 in the Falcons’ favor when these teams met up earlier in the year in Tampa, now we get a smaller spread, with the Falcons at home and trending up, I love it. The public loves the Bucs, whereas the money is heavily on the Falcons this morning. I am putting my money where my mouth is and backing the large sharp differentials – grab this before it gets to 3.

The Play:  Falcons -2 -110 (1u)

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cleveland Browns (-2.5), Total 34

Another day in 2023 for the NFL, and another game where there is a total closing in on 30. The backup quarterback matchup of the century features CJ Beathard and Joe Flacco in 16 mph windy Cleveland. Jacksonville is coming off a loss to the Bengals on Monday night and the loss of Trevor Lawrence, which I think hinders them significantly – especially against this Browns defense. It is still unclear whether Trevor Lawrence plays or not, but it is incredibly unlikely. The Jaguars are going to need to keep this low-scoring to win and stay at the top of the AFC South without their quarterback, as every Browns home game has gone under its total this year. This means, that with a backup QB of their own, they cannot afford points from the Browns. Joe Flacco is obviously a veteran, but given the amount of time he has played in the last few years, he is a shell of what he once was. I expect the Browns to start well offensively, but as the scripted plays come to an end, this Browns team is also going to have a hard time moving the ball. Injuries also riddle both sides in addition to the quarterbacks with Amari Cooper questionable and Christian Kirk out. The money, sharps, and public all favor the under here with a 26% differential towards the under. I am a bit weary as this number is moving up, but I still like the play.

The Play: Under 35.5  -105 (1u)

Los Angeles Rams vs Baltimore Ravens (-7.5), Total 39.5

Matt Stafford and the Rams head to Baltimore to face the Ravens in what is shaping up to be one of the best games of the early slate, despite the large spread staring us right in the face. The Rams are surging right now after winning 3 straight where they put up more than 30 in two of those outings. The Ravens are coming off a bye, but need to continue to put the pressure on the rest of the AFC by winning and keeping their number 1 spot. In an NFL with so many backup quarterbacks, I did not expect to see Matthew Stafford getting one of the largest underdog lines of the day at over a touchdown. With Kyren Williams back, this offense is humming. Their breakout wide receiver Puka Nacua also looks to be healthy, and with Matthew Stafford surging after his return from his injury, the Rams are trending in the right direction. That also includes their defense. While they are very young, they have not allowed more than 20 to a team in the last 4 weeks. From a Baltimore standpoint, I think they are going to come out slow after a bye week. They often are not good as favorites, and as favorites over a TD this year they are 1-2 ATS. The one cover was in week one against rookie CJ Stroud in his debut. The public and money are on the Ravens here, but there is a nice sharp differential fitting into our best ATS trend on the year on the Rams. I love Stafford and this surging offense to keep it within a TD.

The Play: Rams +7.5 -110

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5), Total 48.5

Who would have thought that in Week 14 we would get this matchup where the Bills are fighting for their playoff lives and the Chiefs are trending downwards. After their loss to New England, the Bills offense has been rolling. They have scored 24 or more in their last 5 and put up 30+ twice before their bye in Week 13. On the other hand, the Chiefs are coming off a Sunday Night road loss to the Packers. I don’t see a world where the Bills fail to move the ball in this premier matchup. For one, they had an extra week to prepare for a matchup they look forward to every year. For two, despite the news about the Chiefs’ defense, they are not great against the run. The Bills’ offense operates best when they can move the ball on the ground and continue drives. The issues arise when Josh Allen turns the ball over. With Paceco injured, I have some questions about the Chiefs offensively. They have not managed to move the ball well as of late, and it does not feel like the Mahomes spark is ~there~. However, the good thing for them here is the injury report of the Bills defense. Mahomes and friends should be able to convert a few times to keep this one close as of late and get us to the total, especially if there are some turnovers. The public is heavy on the over with me here, but as we saw last year – public on overs later in the season is not nearly as bad as early in the season. We all want points in this one, and I think the Bills will do their thing to get us there. Hopefully, Mahomes can do the same.

The Play: Over 48.5 -110 (1u)

Plays without a writeup:

• Steelers -0.5/Titans +7.5 Teaser – Home teams with sharp diff. 

The Leans (May take some of these closer to kickoff)

After getting such an incredible response to start the season this year, I think I want to continue to give out my leans in games that I am not even betting on because it may help others with their decisions. So if you have seen my recent Reddit posts you will see that I update these as the weeks go on. Based on all the current public betting information, here is what I am thinking for Week 14 of NFL!

• Texans/Jets – There looks to be some serious weather coming to MetLife, and while I think the Jets get it done today and cover, I cannot trust Tim Boyle again. 
• Colts/Bengals – I like the Colts as I don’t think Jake Browning and this Bengals team should be favored. Although the trends are pointing toward the Bengals, I am staying away.
• Panthers/Saints – I refuse to bet on a Panthers game in the rest of this season, but I do like them today.
• Seahawks/Niners – Line is too large in my opinion, but the Geno Smith news has me freaked. Also, the Niners are too dominant to bet against.
• Broncos/Chargers – I like the Broncos here, but unsure how many points we get here. I don’t particularly see the value yet but may have a play on this one later.

Thanks for reading! If you guys like what you see or have any comments/critiques, please let me know on Twitter, I appreciate all feedback. Please also follow the podcast and share the website! I will see you on Tuesday with another recap episode of Sharpen the Public.

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This is an article written by DJ Bianco