NFL Week 14 Betting Preview and Breakdown – Best Bets and Analysis for NFL Betting & More
Week 14 is on the horizon as we look ahead to some early NFL betting action and positive closing line movement. Last week saw my first perfect week of betting on the NFL in 2023, as I went 7-0 and netted 8.75 units for those who followed along with my Week 13 Early Best Bets, the plays I gave out on the Sharpen The Public podcast, and tailed my plays from Twitter @AndyHHSports. We look to keep the ball rolling in my Week 14 Betting Preview this week, as the last five weeks this article has been largely positive, holding a 8-2-1 record netting 6.775 units in the green.
This week marks the final week of bye weeks, and many NFL fantasy leagues having their final matchups before heading into the playoffs. The playoff picture is beginning to take shape, and matchups like Jaguars vs Browns, Seahawks vs Niners, Bills vs Chiefs, and Eagles vs Cowboys will all play a big role in how that picture is painted. With only Arizona and Washington on bye, we will look to dissect the Week 14 NFL betting slate as we identity early value in the 15 games ahead. Let’s jump right in!
Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Colts travel once again on the road following their overtime victory against their division rival Tennessee Titans. I am 6-1 betting on or against the boys in blue, and this is once again a spot I cannot believe is this short, as many people still cannot believe the Colts are 7-5 now. The Bengals play in Monday Night Football, and with a poor showing with Browning at the helm I think we could see this number potentially move.
One of the problems with Cincy heading into this season was their uncertainty on the defensive side of the ball. Joe Burrow or not, that has not changed for this team. The Bengals rank dead last in the league in total yards per game allowed at 389.3 and yards per play allowed at 6.2 a play. This does not bode well as they take on a Colts team that ranks 8th in the league in scoring at 25.0 points per game, and has scored at least 20 points or more in every game except for their outing in Frankfurt a few weeks back.
The Colts defense has left a lot to be desired at times, which is why the Colts are 8-4 to the over this season, but does it matter when they’re going up against a backup QB in Browning? Jake threw 19 for 26 against Pittsburgh last week with a touchdown and a pick, and largely was helped out by Ja’Marr Chase who caught four passes for 81 yards. On top of this, Browning will prove to be more predictable than other quarterbacks the Colts have faced, as Cincy has lacked a consistent running game ranking dead last in the league in rushing yards per game at 75.8 heading into their Monday Night Football game against the Jaguars.
With Zack Moss not skipping a beat in the absence of Jonathan Taylor, and Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce both showing out in Tennessee over the weekend, I like the Colts to win by a field goal or more here. Indianapolis is 8-4 against the spread which is the same record they hold hitting the over this year. The Colts will do their part on offense to get the job done on Sunday, the question is can the Bengals on a short week do the same with their backup quarterback?
The Play: Colts -2.5 (-110) – 1 Unit
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Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears
The Lions and Bears face off in one the most storied division rivalries in NFL history. These two clubs are on opposite sides of the spectrum, in what typically has always been a who can be worse than the other type of game. The Lions are vying for a top three spot in the NFC as many regard them to be right below San Francisco and Philadelphia, while the Bears look to continue to rebuild with an incredible amount of draft capital at their disposal with their own first as well as Carolina’s.
The narrative surrounding divisional games is always how low scoring and defensive minded they are due to these teams knowing each other well and being able to capitalize on the familiarity. However, six of the last eight meetings between these two teams have gone over the current listed total of 41.5. The previous three matchups have all gone over too, which much more closely resembles the current makeup of both sides in this one. Why has this game in particular been going over so much recently?
The Lions are the sixth best scoring squad in the NFL this season scoring 27.3 points per game, while Chicago has also been averaging 20.3 themselves. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the league in points per game allowed, with Detroit allowing 23.8 and Chicago allowing 24.7 points per game. Both defenses have left a lot to be desired passing the ball, which Detroit has been successful at this season with Amon Ra St. Brown, rookie Sam LaPorta, and Jameson Williams slowly easing back into action for quarterback Jared Goff.
The one risk I see with this play is how both sides have excelled defending the run, and how both the Bears and Lions love to rely on rushing with their offenses. However, Jahmyr Gibbs slipped up last week and should see a bounce back with how poor Chicago is defending the pass, while Montgomery rushed for 76 yards and a touchdown the last time these two player which makes me not too worried. Justin Fields has been averaging 81.5 rushing yards a game in his two games back in action, and is coming off of the bye week which should help him to prepare to take on this sometimes porous Lions defense.
Give me the over here on a total that is a bit too low for a matchup that loves going over. Excited to see both of these offenses cook in what will be a fun NFC North matchup.
The Play: Over 41.5 (-110) – 1 Unit
THIS IS AN ARTICLE WRITTEN BY ANDY CHASE
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