NFL Week 16 Teasers and More

Looking for Teaser Candidates

There are a couple of key fundamentals I look for when taking a teaser. Based on the Reddit post above, one of the first indicators I love to look for is a low total to pair with the spread I am teasing up or down. If Vegas expects a game to be low-scoring, which the majority of games have been during the 2022 regular season, then getting the dog by over a touchdown or the favorite by closer to a pick ’em is a huge advantage to you as the bettor.

The next thing I look for are spreads in the +1 to +3 or occasionally +3.5 range, as well as the -8.5 to -6.5 range. You may notice that this deviates a tad from Wong’s method and the Reddit article above. However, this still makes it affordable with the 6-Point Teaser to do the most crucial thing – cross at least two key numbers.

For the experienced football bettor, you are always looking for key numbers when you take a side. But for those who are new, a key number is any scoring number in the game of football, meaning 3, 7, 10, and 14. I mainly focus on the 3s and 7s here, as you are not going to be worrying about a 10 to 14-point buffer with a 6-Point Teaser, and I am not as big of a fan of the Sweetheart Teasers offering 10 Points as opposed to 6 as I really loathe 3-Leg parlays and teasers. I am highly against 3 leg parlays and teasers because of the probability of tying three independent results together and not receiving a major payout as a result.

With almost half (yes, HALF!!!) of the NFL results over the past seven seasons ending in a difference of 7 points or less, the 6-Point Teaser gives you a chance to grab lots of value. This has been even more of the case when the totals have been lower this year, games have been closer, and historically the low totals paired with a teaser have been super profitable. This is why I always try to cross two key numbers with the 6-Point Teaser, meaning a +1.5 would bring you up to +7.5 and cross 3 as well as 7. Or you can bring a more than touchdown difference in -7.5 or -8.5 to -1.5 or -2.5 which also crosses those same two numbers. I don’t like teasers as much when they cross 7 and 10, as you are still ending up with a likely weird number between 3 and 7, which defeats the purpose of either giving you a touchdown buffer or bringing things closer to a pick ’em.

Week 16 Teaser Opportunities

I have identified 11 games where you can take advantage of Wong’s methodology in Week 16. There are 11 games on the Saturday of Christmas Eve, three on Christmas, and a Chargers vs Colts Monday Night Football matchup that I am sure everyone is amped for. Here are the legs I am looking at:

Saints +3 -> +9 (Total: 32)

Ravens -6.5 -> -0.5 (Total: 34.5)

Patriots +3 -> +9 (Total: 41.5)

Bills -8 -> -2 (Total: 40)

Panthers +2.5 -> +8.5 (Total: 49)

Texans +3.5 -> +9.5 (Total: 43.5)

Niners -7 -> -1 (Total: 49.5)

Raiders +2 -> +8 (Total: 38)

Packers +3.5 -> +9.5 (Total: 49)

Rams +3 -> +9 (Total: 36.5)

Bucs -7.5 -> -1.5 (Total: 40.5)

Deciding Which Legs to Pair Together

Yes, I have identified almost three-fourths of the games as possible teaser candidates for Week 16. We do not need to necessarily tease them all and can go ahead and rule out a few of them right off the bat. The first indicator I look for to rule out a few of these is the total, with the Panthers, Niners, Packers, and Texans all above the 42-point total threshold that ensures additional profitability according to the Reddit article at the top of this column. I already do not want to invest my hard-earned money on the Panthers and Texans anyways, but I totally understand if you like bringing the Packers up to an almost 10-point buffer and the Niners to close to a pick ’em, as I did give the Niners out on Deej’s podcast Sharpen the Public which released on Friday.

The Buccaneers and Bills are two I want to call out right away. According to u/DuTeXz using Wong’s methods for teasers, from 2018-2021 when a favorite is anywhere from -7.5 to -9 and the total is below 42, those teaser legs (individually) have hit at a record of 12-1. This is absolutely bonkers that there are two of these games in the same week, and I personally paired them both together in a teaser of my own. However, I think any NFL fan’s gut instinct says there is no way all three favorites win outright between the Bucs, Bills, and Niners, as this is professional football we are talking about here. An upset is bound to happen.

With the Bucs and Bills highlighted green as two legs we want to take, and four legs highlighted red as no-go’s, now we can go situation by situation to see who to pair with what. I am going to go ahead and rule out the Ravens here because even though the Falcons have cooled off from their surprising start to the season, Huntley and Jackson are both hurt at QB leaving a lot of question marks under center in Baltimore. The Falcons allow 129.9 rushing yards per game so Baltimore could just run the ball every play and hope for the best, but I will steer clear of that risk.

This leaves us with four remaining teams: the Saints +9 visiting Cleveland, the Patriots +9 hosting the Bengals, the Raiders +8 visiting Pittsburgh, and the Rams +9 hosting the Broncos. I believe there are three great teasers we can play this week with these four teams and the Bucs and Bills, and I will outline them below.

Andy’s Best Bets for Week 16

Depending on what sportsbook you use, the odds for a 6-Point Teaser will fluctuate anywhere from -110 to -130. It is rare to find a book with -110 odds for a 6-Point Teaser, but if you can find one that is the way to go. I have one book I exclusively use for teasers, as in the long-term it will pay off compared to paying a fifth extra or more for every teaser you place at -120 or greater. For that reason, it is OK if you are paying -120, but I’d try to find a new book if they are ripping you off for -130 or greater!

6-Pt Teaser #1 – 2 Units
Raiders +8
Bucs -1.5

The Raiders and Steelers face off in a Saturday Night Football rematch of the Immaculate Reception, and the line shows us the books think this will be a close one. Both teams have underwhelmed us this year, coming in at 6-8 records, but the Raiders have begun to figure things out winning 4 of their last 5 including the incredible finish to last week’s game against the Patriots that has been on replay all week. The Steelers have won 4 of their last 6 to pull their record into a more respectable territory as well, making this game one of the more exciting 6-8 matchups you can find.

Both of these teams keep things close, so close that this spread of Raiders +8 would have only come into play in one game for both the Steelers and Raiders. The Steelers have only won one game by more than 8 points this season and it was November 13th in a 20-10 win against the Saints. The Raiders on the other hand have only lost one game by more than 8 points this season and funny enough it was also against the Saints in a 24-0 shutout on October 30th. I believe that both teams will look to keep things competitive, the low total suggests things will stay close, and the previous results this season make +8 feel like a safe bet I am very confident in.

I talked about the Bucs a good bit above, but I can touch on their matchup a bit more now. The Cardinals will be starting third-string QB Trace McSorley on Sunday Night Football which gives the Buccaneers a perfect opportunity to snag a win with their division title hopes still alive and a playoff berth on the line. Favorites in the 7.5 to 9-point spread range with a total below 42 have cashed over the last 4 years in a 6-point teaser with a record of 12-1. Give me Tom Brady here to win by 2 points or more as he rushes home to not miss too much of Christmas with the kids.

6-Pt Teaser #2 – 1.5 Units
Saints +9
Bills -2

It is not my favorite thing in the world to pair up two road teams that are both traveling in historic cold weather to the Midwest, but if I had to pick, it would be the fearless Andy Dalton as well as the Buffalo Bills who fear nothing, especially not the cold. For the Saints, it is more about the matchup and the historically low total that makes me love them in this spot with a 6-point buffer. Yes, they are a disgrace to watch and are coming off of a win against the Falcons last week, but can’t they at least cover +9?

The main cause for concern over the course of this season is that the Saints have lost by more than 9 points four times this season, with three of them coming in November. However, it is definitely respectable when those losses have come against the Bucs, Niners, Ravens, and Steelers (meh) because the Browns’ offense has proven they are not up to the caliber of those teams with Deshaun Watson still looking quite rusty. The Saints are the sixth-best defense in passing yards allowed at a mere 195 yards a game, but if the Browns get Chubb and Hunt going early I will be a bit concerned.

However, where the Saints lack in rushing defense the Browns do too, as both teams allow just over 132 rushing yards per game putting them in the bottom third of the NFL. The Browns had a knack for close games earlier this season which has now been shed, but a margin of victory of -0.9 puts them as close to the middle of the pack for close games as you could ask for. You have to take the dog when the total is a hilarious 32, and a +9 buffer gives me comfort when the weather is 4 degrees Fahrenheit and snowing in Cleveland. Hopefully this afternoon we will be yelling “WHO DAT” from the comfort of our warm couches.

I made a brief case for the Bills above, but I can talk about it a bit more now. Favorites in the 7.5 to 9-point spread range with a total below 42 have cashed over the last 4 years in a 6-point teaser with a record of 12-1. The Bills are used to the cold, but with temperatures of 4 degrees in Chicago, this is a whole new ball game. The Bears already being a prolific rushing team does scare me a bit, but the Bills are in the top 20% of the league in defending the run only allowing 106 rushing yards a game. Give me the Bills here to just notch a win by a field goal or more in what should be a low-scoring game, thankfully without snow.

6-Pt Teaser #3 – 1 Unit
Patriots +9
Rams +9

Finally, our two home dogs are at +9 a piece and we are rocking with both. The Patriots are coming off of one of the most embarrassing plays in NFL history to lose a game in the final seconds, and now have to back it up by hosting the AFC Champion Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow and company will travel to Foxborough for the first time in Burrow’s career, which I think plays into the hands of Belichick and company who are in a classic bounce-back spot with 70% of the public betting on Cincy.

It is actually colder in Chicago and Cleveland today than it is in New England, but 15 degrees is still pretty damn cold. The Bengals have not lost a game since Halloween against the Browns, and the Patriots don’t really seem like the team to get in their way here. However, I think that the Pats’ defense can help keep this thing close ranking in the top 10 for rushing yards allowed per game and passing yards allowed per game.

The Baker Mayfield hero story was a fun piece for about ten days, but if anyone watched that full Thursday night comeback game we know that the 2022 King of South End Charlotte bars is still not that great. However, I think he is better than what the most boring team in football has to offer in the Denver Broncos. And if Baker isn’t good enough to beat the Russell Wilson-less Broncos, this Rams defense is at least decent enough to keep the Broncos within 9. I will be riding with the under in this game as well, but when two teams are in shambles and the total is this low, you have to feel great rocking with a 9-point buffer.