NFL Week 17 Best Bets and Analysis

NFL Week 17 Best Bets and Analysis

Happy Holidays everyone, we are almost into 2024! However, we have a few more NFL games to get through on this 31st before we enter the new year. I hope everyone had a nice Christmas Eve into Christmas last week, as I absolutely did. But, let’s get to the football.

NFL Week 17 has quickly arrived and as always we are here to bring you the best betting trends, information, and predictions to prepare you for the slate. Here you will find the best ways to bet on premier matchups like the Green Bay Packers vs the Minnesota Vikings or the possible game-of-the-year matchup between the Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens.

I am a whopping 0-2 thanks to the early games this week (thankfully only down 1u after 2 0.5u plays), but I’m looking for a nice week after a few mediocre ones (4-5-1 last week). We are beating a dead horse now since its Week 17, but can anyone believe how well the public has done so far? By this point, you guys know the write-up that’s coming, so I will try to add some different stats to spice things up.

If you are new here, welcome to Happy Hour Sports, my name is DJ and I track how the public and money do each week in the NFL. We want to take the phrase “fade the public” further because everyone talks about the betting public and money data, but when those numbers are brought up, there is no context around them. People assume high tickets on one side is bad, and high money on the other side is good. However, we are here to prove those claims right or wrong, every single week.

Our goal with Sharpen the Public and the weekly articles on this website is to provide context to the numbers and develop discourse regarding the data. If you are ever curious as to when the public does good, or what sharp differentials are strong indicators that a bet is the sharp side, then you have come to the right place. Follow the podcast and listen to us break everything down each week!

No YouTube from this week due to the holiday, but check out the new Spotify podcast above!

With that out of the way, it’s time to get into this week’s best bets and analysis. Here you will find the bets that I place every week and some discussion on why I am taking most of them. We’re not trying to be those Twitter handicappers that scream max play at you, we want you to trust us. Don’t forget you can always find my recaps of the weeks here as well – detailing where things went wrong and how I did. Last week was not the worst, but a step in the right direction as I went 4-5-1.

It’s already week 17 and the games and data are beginning to stack up. We have all of last year to help influence our picks for this year and with the influx of bettors entering the market (evidenced by the bet totals last week); the sky’s the limit for where we can take our information and bets. 

Deej Record from Week 15: 

  • Bets: 4-5-1
  • Leans: 1-2

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Week 17 NFL Betting Trends

Since we are already through week 16, that means we have official data to report regarding the public betting trends to influence our Week 17 bets. Check out the full recap article and many other NFL pieces at our NFL BETTING PICKS. Additionally, the recent podcasts always break down the updates to the trends. If you missed that, here they are:

  • Public Betting Percentage: 129-103 ATS (56%)
  • Money Betting Percentage: 124-108 ATS (53%)
  • Sharp Differential: 119-113 ATS (51%)
  • Public on Over: 63-72 (47%)
  • Money on Over: 44-48 (48%)
  • Sharp Diff. on Over: 28-24 (54%)
  • Public on Under: 54-43 (56%)
  • Money on Under: 78-64 (55%)
  • Sharp Diff on Under: 102-79 (56%)

Now, we are the only people who provide deep recaps on these numbers like this every week; but, we are also the only sports betting brand that will dive deeper into these numbers and tell you important ranges that trends emerge from the already crazy trends you see above. 

Aside from the public’s dominance this year, something I am noticing in the latter half of this season is the uptick in the overs categories. Across the board (public, money, and sharp wise) the over metrics are vastly improving, and I believe it has something to do with regression towards the mean for totals. Over the last two seasons, unders have been the dominant force, even to the point where major media outlets were pushing the narrative that the under was hitting so much. Fast forward to Week 16 in 2023, and things have gotten significantly different.

I bring this up because so often at Sharpen the Public we have talked about fading the public backing overs; I want to clear things up that at this point in the season, we should not be doing that. We talked about it a lot during the halfway-through-the-season upload, but this phenomenon was also something we saw last year; however, it’s on a slightly different scale this time. Last week the public, money, and sharp differential went 7-5, 6-3, and 3-1, respectively, tailing the over. While the flip side (the unders) did significantly worse. I see a lot of the same things happening to finish out the season.

Although, the thing that always takes the cake is the public, and in this year specifically, the fact that aside from the public doing well throughout the whole season; the public is even better when there is more than 60% of the bets on one side. Generally, the betting public (aka whenever there are more tickets on one team than another) is 26 games over .500. The Public is 19 games over .500 when there are more than 60% of the tickets on one side, a true public side. 

Time and time again I bring up how we need to have context surrounding public betting data, and the above paragraph is evidence of that. Not only to break down narratives around the public, which I talk about all the time, but to also use this information to our advantage. This is the only place on the internet that would tell you to back the public this year because you would make money, and it worked!

Although this analysis is subjective, it sparks a discourse about public betting data, a topic I find fascinating and a key reason for my weekly engagement. Despite anticipating a decline in public performance by year-end, it’s essential to avoid blindly supporting or fading specific ranges of public confidence. Additionally, we can shift our focus to metrics like sharp differentials and money as the 2023 season concludes, since I harp on the public enough. 

Looking at other metrics, through week 16, when the sharp differential has been between 10 and 14 % on a team, those teams are 29-15ATS, which continues to be the best trend ATS this year! Other crazy trends include a 63.5% win percentage (54-31) when the under is between a 5-19% sharp differential, we accidentally dubbed this the Double D trend on the podcast a few weeks ago. Money percentages on the over continue to be strong in the second half of the year, and as overs continue to hit – I still expect this trend to remain consistent.

Every game is different, and I want that to be clear. However, as we continue to track the general public betting trends over the season, we will have more information than the average bettor, and we don’t need much logic to bet better than them. Anyway, let’s get into the picks because I cannot wait for this slate!

Note that I am writing this around 9:30 am on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider sticking around and subscribing!

Week 17 NFL Best Bets and Analysis

Miami Dolphins vs Baltimore Ravens (-3), Total 46.5

The Play:  Dolphins +3 -110 

Carolina Panthers vs Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5), Total 37.5

The Play: Panthers +4  -110

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos (-3.5), Total 37.5

The Play: Under 40.5  -114

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos (-3.5), Total 37.5

The Play: Under 37.5 -110

Plays without a writeup:

  • Saints +8.5/Chiefs -1.5 
  • Giants +6.5 -110
  • Titans/Texans Over 44 -108

The Leans (May take some of these closer to kickoff)

Leans coming soon!

Thanks for reading! If you guys like what you see or have any comments/critiques, please let me know on Twitter, I appreciate all feedback. Please also follow the podcast and share the website! I will see you on Tuesday with another recap episode of Sharpen the Public.

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This is an article written by DJ Bianco

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