NFL Week 2 Recap
What a wild week 2 it was in the NFL. The under went an incredible 12-4 in the opening week and the over had to go ahead and do it one better by going 13-3 the following week. The money percentage and the sharp differential went 6-9 in Week 2, and the public went 8-7 – I mean, what is going on!
Thankfully, every week we add information to the public betting trends we are tracking. Every week we learn to make adjustments and find new ways to look at the numbers, and this week is just like the rest. Welcome to Happy Hour Sports, the only place you can find real dialogue regarding how the public bets the NFL every week. My name is Deej, and I have been providing this type of information for over a year now on Happy Hour Sports and in Sharpen the Public, a top 15% followed podcast on Spotify.
I want to clarify that our new format for Sharpen the Public includes a recap episode and article scheduled for early-week release on Tuesday’s (this piece). The podcast episode, covering my insights and public betting trends, is already available above. Additionally, you can expect our regular preview episode later in the week, along with my Sunday best bets feature. We’re dedicated to providing a rich content experience and a place you want to check out every single week!
If you are new here, we track public betting trends in order to win more bets. Every day it’s posted on twitter the public is 85% on this team, or the next team, but never has it been clear what those numbers mean, until now. Ever wondered if the public is actually good at betting the favorites, or overs? That is exactly the information we provide.
Starting last year, me and some other Happy Hour Sports creators began Sharpen the Public, the ultimate sports betting podcast focusing on leveraging public betting information to win more bets, and we have not looked back since.
NFL Betting Trends for 2023
Regarding the stats for last year, I don’t want to bore anyone with information they have already seen/read, so I will link you here to the article and podcast discussing the trends from the 2022 season. Last week we began tracking for 2023, and the week one article can be found here.
I said it at the beginning, but this was an absolutely wild week for the public betting trends. Backdoor covers were everywhere like in the Rams and Eagles cases, but also the public performed incredibly well on the over and poorly on the under.
Thankfully, it is just Week 2 and there is a lot to look forward to. We also have a year’s worth of data under our belt to help steer us in the right path and make the right reads on what is happening in the NFL Public Betting Realm.
As a whole, things already seem quite out of the norm. Let’s take a look at how the public betting percentage, money percentage, and sharp differential have fared through Week 2.
Overall Sharpen the Public Trends:
- Public Betting Percentage: 15-16-1 ATS
- Money Betting Percentage: 13-18-1 ATS
- Sharp Differential: 15-16-1 ATS
- Public on Over: 9-8
- Money on Over: 6-4
- Sharp Diff. on Over: 5-2
- Public on Under: 7-8
- Money on Under: 11-11
- Sharp Diff on Under: 13-12
Week 2 Sharpen the Public Trends:
- Public Betting Percentage: 8-7- ATS
- Money Betting Percentage: 6-9-1 ATS
- Sharp Differential: 6-9-1 ATS
- Public on Over: 6-3
- Money on Over: 3-1
- Sharp Diff. on Over: 3-0
- Public on Under: 0-7
- Money on Under: 2-10
- Sharp Diff on Under: 3-10
These results are nearly a complete 180 from what was observed in week one. Obviously, it is important to note that these total results are clearly skewed based on so many unders happening in week one, and so many overs in week 2. However, the thing I am taking a deeper look at is that poor performance by the money percentage and sharp differential through just 2 weeks.
There are two main reasons an early poor performance by these two metrics is possible. For one, there has been a recent influx of bettors littering the market. Thus, vastly affecting the public betting percentages to an extent that we cannot yet quantify because we don’t have access to everyone’s bets. However, I think that is a bit of a stretch.
The second possible reason is that the sharp bettors are just underperforming early in the year. This is not uncommon; despite the money and sharp differential having down weeks last year (2-11 ATS in week 7, 4-9 ATS in week 7, 6-10 ATS in Week 5) they still finished well positive at 146-119 ATS and 145-120 ATS, respectively. I’ll take it a step further and say after that bloody week 7, the money bounced back from 2-11 ATS in week 7 to 12-3 ATS in week 8. No need to panic, yet.
I think some of the games have had wild things occur like last minute field goals that don’t matter of the Chargers having 50+ points and zero turnovers, yet they are 0-2. The NFL is difficult to consistently make money, so while we are in these weeks where it seems as though nothing makes sense, take a step back and learn from every game – there is money to be made.
Focusing in on some other trends away from the money and sharp differential, as it stands the Golden Rule from last year is 4-11, while the Geico Trend is 3-12 ATS. I hate to break it to you guys because these trends were so strong for us last year, but try and hold onto hope as there are a few positive things we can start banking on. Already, between 10-14% sharp differential, teams are 8-0 ATS to start the season.
I also mentioned last week we were going to start tracking how results are affected by line movements, while there is not a trend yet regarding the spreads; through Week 2, when a total has moved up from open to close, it is 5-1 to the over. The one loss was in Week 2 when the total moved from 44 to 46 in the Dolphins and Patriots game. That number was far too high for a Sunday Night divisional matchup, but hit 46 likely because of the amount of overs earlier that Sunday.
While our normal trends are not quite hitting, there is always something to look for from our data. Hopefully you find this interesting, and I am sure you do if you have made it this far in the writeup. If you have, thank you. I appreciate you.
The last thing I want to point out before getting into the game by game recap, is take a look at the public through 2 weeks. They are a staggering 15-16-1 ATS. No, it is not impressive by any means, but the point of Sharpen the Public is to show how important it is that there is more to sports gambling than just “fading the public.”
The public may not be the best bettor in the world, but they are going to hit between 45%-55% of the time. So, we need to take deeper dives into these public betting numbers because the gem trends are there. We can develop strategies based on line movement and percentages to understand where sharps are putting their money, and why. Just like that is how we found multiple trends that surpassed a 60% win rate in 2022 – no one but Happy Hour Sports can find you that information, so stick with us.
NFL Week 2 Game by Game Betting Recap
As I said last week, this portion of the article is to provide you with as much transparency as I can throughout the year. I never want to lose, its sports betting – it is going to happen. With all of our writers here, we want you to feel a sense of integrity with us. We lose together and we win together, but if we continue to make the right reads and use data better than the next guy, things will work out for us. So, win or lose, you can always find out my thoughts on the games in this section and why I did or didn’t bet a side.
I for one did not have a great week, going 4-5-1 for -2.5u. At the end of the day, it’s not as bad as it seems. We are pretty much even through two weeks. However, there are some things that can get better and I am excited to improve. Hopefully the Geico Trend and the Golden Rule can do the same.
Week 2 Thursday Night Game: Vikings vs Eagles -5.5, o/u 49
Winner: Lions 34-28
Covered: Eagles -5.5 (depended on the line), o49
Public on Eagles: 64%
Money on Eagles: 46%
Sharp Diff. on Eagles: -18%
Public on Over: 57%
Money on Over: 76%
Sharp Diff. on Over: 19%
STP/Deej Outcome: +0.5u on Eagles Team Total Over 27.5
This game opened at 7 and was nearly instantly bet down to about 6/6.5 points. It floated around 6 before finishing at 5.5 and it truly mattered what line you got here. I stayed away from the spread because of the Eagles injuries on defense, and I am glad I did as it was a bad beat for Eagles bettors -6.5 or worse. The Vikings offense looks really good, despite them being 0-2. They have to shorten up the turnover margin because giving away 4 but only getting one from the Eagles is a reason they are not winning these games. They face the Chargers next week in the battle of the best 0-2 games and as I see it right now it could go either way.
As for the Eagles, things still do not look perfect. Their defense is pretty banged up, but their offensive line remains elite. They outran the Vikings by 200+ yards. However, the Vikings defense also lost to the Buccaneers. There are a lot of things to consider here, but from an ATS standpoint I am not backing the Eagles, yet. Their team totals are going to continue to look good, though, especially as the offense settles into their new system. Great position to back the over as the trends pointed to it and a high caliber offense vs. a bad pass defense (32nd worst in the league).
Week 2 Sunday Game: Chiefs v Jaguars +3.5, o/u 51
Winner: Chiefs 17-9
Covered: Chiefs, u51
Public on Chiefs: 58%
Money on Chiefs: 72%
Sharp Diff. on Chiefs: 14%
Public on Under: 18%
Money on Under: 27%
Sharp Diff. on Under: 9%
STP/Deej Outcome: Leaned Chiefs -3, Did Not Bet
The line here stayed the same for pretty much the entire week despite the Chiefs having the public, money, and sharp differential backing. It was a great situational spot to favor Mahomes in a relatively short line for the recent Chiefs against a team they are more experienced than. It is clear they have made defensive improvements over the offseason and I think even if their offense is not quite as potent as its been in recent years, they are easily Super Bowl contenders thanks to their D. Chris Jones looks like he has not missed a step, so coming in it was a great look to back the 0-1 Chiefs to not go 0-2. I stayed away because it felt like a trap. Mahomes is usually very good in these shorter line situations and he was getting Kelce and Jones back. The game stayed close, but the Chiefs defense prevailed – I wish I followed my gut.
The Jags on the other hand played decently on offense, converting only one first down less than the Chiefs and having a comparable time of possession. The Chiefs defense did well at preventing them from getting in the endzone while in the redzone and forcing fumbles. I think if the Jags are able to clean up the turnovers, Calvin Ridley and this Jags offense are going to take the AFC South by storm. Due to the high power nature of these two offenses I did lean the over, but this Chiefs defense is scary allowing only 21 and 9 points to some good offenses – I will be looking at their unders a little closer in the future, but glad we stayed away from the over here.
Week 2 Sunday Game: Raiders vs Bills +7.5, o/u 47
Winner: Bills 38-10
Covered: Bills -7.5, o47
Public on Bills : 77%
Money on Bills : 89%
Sharp Diff. on Bills : 12%
Public on Over: 54%
Money on Over: 48%
Sharp Diff. on Over: -6%
STP/Deej Outcome: +1u on Bills -8
On the week 2 preview of Sharpen the Public I predicted the Bills to win this game 30-14. It was not a perfect prediction, but went pretty much how we expected. This was a great spot (like the Chiefs) to back a good team off a loss against a team not quite in their caliber, especially with a nice sharp differential in their favor. The Raiders looked like they would give the Bills a run for their money in the beginning, but thankfully a rough interception incited the Bills offense into a frenzy; their defense put Josh Jacobs behind a brick wall. It is also another great plug for why we do what we do here at Sharpen The Public. A large public backing, large money backing, yet the Bills still handedly covered. There are so many ways to look at these games, but fading the public will only lose you money. That’s why we do it (and other things) systematically, and no one else can touch that.
I liked Jimmy G coming into this year, but it just does not look like he has settled into this offense yet. I, however, am giving him the benefit of the doubt. They started their season against the Broncos defense (who has proved to be worse than expected) that played well, then got destroyed by the Bills defense. Now, they go to face a motivated Steelers defense and it may not get any easier for them. Adjustments need to be made, because the personnel is there. I leaned the under here because of the line movement down throughout the week, but it was a tough beat for the over covering by one point – glad we stayed away.
Week 2 Sunday Game: Ravens v Bengals -3, o/u 45.5
Winner: Ravens 27-24
Covered: Ravens +3, o45.5
Public on Ravens: 39%
Money on Ravens: 21%
Sharp Diff. on Ravens: -18%
Public on Over: 43%
Money on Over: 14%
Sharp Diff. on Over: -29%
STP/Deej Outcome: Leaned Bengals -3, Did Not Bet
I was on the Bengals all week here, and very happy we stayed away. Clearly something is up with Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense. Additionally, the loss of the key defensive players is not helping; they allowed 24 and 27 to two division rivals where the games typically remain very low totals. This is one of the reasons I leaned the under, in addition to the Golden Rule on the under. But, like I said in the podcast, totals going 12-4 to the under in Week one was only going to make things weird this week in totals, and that is exactly what happened.
Looking back on it, this was a good spot to back the AFC North divisional dog. The Ravens were not the home team, but they played them so well in the playoffs last year, and that was without Lamar Jackson. Lamar looks back to his normal self after a slow game one, and that is also why I leaned the Bengals. I thought this was their get right game, not the Ravens. It was a tough first two games for the Bengals, but it’s going to get real interesting real quickly if they cannot get a win with their Quarterback’s health in question.
Week 2 Sunday Game: Chargers vs Titans +3, o/u 46
Winner: Titans OT 27-24
Covered: Titans +3, u46
Public on Titans : 45%
Money on Titans : 59%
Sharp Diff. on Titans : 14%
Public on Over: 37%
Money on Over: 21%
Sharp Diff. on Over: -16%
STP/Deej Outcome: +1u on Titans +3
Mike Vrabel is one of the most profitable coaches as an underdog. As a home underdog, sometimes it feels like an automatic play. It felt like a great spot to back the Titans here after the Chargers defense allowed nearly 450 yards to Tua in the air. The Titans are a run first offense, but they made the LA pass defense pay as Tannehill went 20 of 24 for 250 yards, yes Ryan Tannehill. I love the Chargers this year, and think they will figure things out, but they have to sure things up on defense or else they will continuously hit overs and not win games.
At the end of the day we ended up on the right side of an overtime game, but the sharps were all over the Titans with a 14% differential. The line also moved in favor of the Titans here and the books did not want to come off that key number of 3. Sharps were also on the under, which is the case more often than not and again ended up on the wrong side of the total. The Chargers offense, when healthy, is very explosive. Add to that the fact that they cannot play defense and you have a great over team. The books will adjust, so we will try and find some value in their unders in the future.
Week 2 Sunday Game: Seahawks vs. Lions -5, o/u 47
Winner: Seahawks 37-37
Covered: Seahawks +5, o47
Public on Seahawks : 58%
Money on Seahawks : 61%
Sharp Diff. on Seahawks : 3%
Public on Over: 67%
Money on Over: 75%
Sharp Diff. on Over: 8%
STP/Deej Outcome: Leaned Seahawks +5, Did Not Bet
I initially was on the Lions in this one, but as the bets came in my lean changed into the Seahawks. I loved what I saw from the Lions as their defense managed to hold Mahomes and the Chiefs to 20 points in a win. Turns out the Chiefs are not scoring much against anyone, yet, and the Lions defense is still missing some key pieces; Aiden Hutchinson needs some help. In the end it was a good spot to back the Seahawks coming off a tough divisional loss to the Rams. Despite the sharp differential only being a small 3% on Seattle, it was clear they were the sharp side by the end of the week as it moved back from 5 down to 4 in some spots.
This was also the shootout of the week, where we had two high powered offenses in controlled conditions in Detroit. It’s exciting to see the potential of Geno again and to see him get back on track. Although, I still feel my initial read on the Lions was right and they are the better team. The 3 turnovers to 0 is never a good sign for a team looking to win and cover. In the end, I wish I paid more attention to the late line movement and snagged the Seahawks and validated my lean. But, there is always something to learn and that’s one of the most interesting things about sports betting, especially in the NFL.
Week 2 Sunday Game: Colts vs. Texans +1, o/u 40.5
Winner: Colts: 31-20
Covered: Colts -1, o40.5
Public on Colts: 58%
Money on Colts: 51%
Sharp Diff. on Colts: -7%
Public on Over: 46%
Money on Over: 11%
Sharp Diff. on Over: -35%
STP/Deej Outcome: -1.1u on Texans +1
In the end, I wish I liked the Texans a lot less. The sharps were all over them all week with some pretty large sharp differentials throughout the week. However, the Texans ending at 7% sharp differential should have been more of a telling sign that the injuries of the Texans should have been more of a concern. I think CJ Stroud is the best quarterback, so far, in his rookie draft class, which is one of the reasons why I backed them heavily here. However, despite him throwing for over 300 yards and having a great day out of his not so great receivers, his defense is letting him down.
The Colts look really good with AR at the helm. I say really good in a very relative sense. This team will perform well ATS and I look forward to backing them in the future, which is what I said about both of the teams in this game last week – just ended up on the wrong side. In addition, I put too much faith in the underdog at home in a divisional matchup here. Tough to read with the rookies in week 2, but we move on. I would have leaned the under as well, yet this soared over – weird week.
Week 2 Sunday Game: Packers vs. Falcons -1.5, o/u 40.5
Winner: Falcons 25-24
Covered: Packers +1.5, o40.5
Public on Packers : 54%
Money on Packers : 31%
Sharp Diff. on Packers : -23%
Public on Over: 59%
Money on Over: 31%
Sharp Diff. on Over: -28%
STP/Deej Outcome: -2.2u on Falcons -1.5
My favorite bet of the week ended up losing by 0.5 a point. Really irked about this one and wish I took the moneyline, but hindsight is 20/20 and you can’t put too much into losses. At the end of the day, this was the right read on a good number. Right after I released the article, the number jumped to 3 points, partly because of the injuries releasing, but due to a lot of sharp action. The sharp action is proofed by a large 23% sharp differential towards the Falcons here, and yet again the Golden Rule failed us this year. I thought it was a great spot to back a better defense than the Bears while the public backed the Packers routing the Bears.
Desmond Ridder is holding the Falcons back, though. There are so many young weapons for the Falcons offense to utilize, yet drives seem to stop abruptly after they start putting the ball in the air. I mean 19 for 32 is very inefficient out of Ridder, and is going to lose them games in this open NFC South. I have been saying this is the Falcons crux since the offseason, but I thought here their run offense would be too much for a depleted Green Bay. In reality, it was as they dominated the game with 13 more minutes in TOP, but they did not cover. The one turnover also did not help. I will still like the Falcons throughout the year, but Ridder needs to improve.
Week 2 Sunday Game: Bears v Bucs -2, o/u 40.5
Winner: Bucs 27-17
Covered: Bucs -2, o40.5
Public on Bucs: 36%
Money on Bucs: 21%
Sharp Diff. on Bucs: -15%
Public on Over: 62%
Money on Over: 33%
Sharp Diff. on Over: -29%
STP/Deej Outcome: -1.1u on Bears +2.5
The Bears defense is abysmal, and Justin Fields looks like he wants to run into defensive lines out there. The public, sharps, and money were all on the Bears in this one, and we all got embarrassed. As I have been saying for weeks now, Baker and the Bucs are going to be way better than people anticipated, but they were only getting 2.5 to the Bears. I believed in this Bears team to come off a tough divisional loss and combat a not so great Bucs team. However, Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield had other plans as they went out there in Tampa and convincingly took care of Chicago. I would put even more stock in the Bucs defense after this one and the 6 sacks, but it was the Bears.
Sharps loved the Bears all week after the divisional loss to the Packers. In the end, I wish I put more slack in the 30+ points the PAckers put up against the Bears, but I did not. For some weird reason I and a lot of people find ourselves continuing to back the Bears, and I do not know what it is. This was probably my worst read of the day.
Week 2 Sunday Game: Giants vs. Cardinals -4.5, o/u 39.5
Winner: Giants 31-28
Covered: Cardinals +4.5, o39.5
Public on Cardinals : 19%
Money on Cardinals : 16%
Sharp Diff. on Cardinals : 14%
Public on Over: 43%
Money on Over: 45%
Sharp Diff. on Over: 2%
STP/Deej Outcome: Leaned Cardinals +4.5, Did Not Bet
This game was a true story of two halves. I loved the Cardinals all week, but elected to stay away because I felt I may have been putting too much faith in a bad team. They looked amazing in the first half, but then got the call that they needed to actually start tanking because they were playing too well. Daniel Jones is still a questionable quarterback for the Giants, but New York is likely excited to be coming off such a great comeback win. But, come on, this Cardinals team should not have been up 20-0 at halftime. At the end of the day, this was another good spot to back a decent Cardinals team (relative) to an overvalued (after losing 40-0) Giants team. The Giants did not deserve to get more than 3 points to any team in the NFL.
There is a reason the line opened at 4.5 and there was 84% of the money on the Giants, yet the line only moved one point to 5.5 in some spots. The Cardinals at home rightfully cashed for the few bettors that backed them, despite them still falling apart near the end and losing. Like the Texans and Colts, I expect the Cardinals to perform better than expected ATS wise this season. I also personally did not see any value in this low total with two unpredictable and bad teams, so glad we stayed away there.
Week 2 Sunday Game: Niners vs Rams +7.5, o/u 45.5
Winner: Niners 30-23
Covered: Rams +7.5, o45.5
Public on Rams : 29%
Money on Rams : 43%
Sharp Diff. on Rams: 14%
Public on Over: 74%
Money on Over: 91%
Sharp Diff. on Over: 17%
STP/Deej Outcome: Leaned Rams +7.5, Did Not Bet
In the back door cover of the week, the Rams were able to kick a meaningless field goal at the end of the game to cover the 7.5 point spread. Despite the final score, and final play, the Rams looked like they were in this one the whole way. I think it was the right read all the way to back this divisional dog coming off a road divisional win against an overvalued team in the Niners coming off a big win vs a good defense. Sharps were on the Rams all the way as well, evidenced by the 14% differential and public backing of the Niners. One of the more normal outcomes given what we expect from the public betting trends last year. Should have taken it, said I was going to in my article, but never pulled the trigger.
Looking back on it, this is one I should have taken the over on. It was a good spot to fade the divisional low total mantra, especially with a large 17% differential towards the over. Last year we saw it happen rarely when the sharp differential was large in favor of the over, and we are seeing it start 5-2 this year. The Niners offense looks nearly unstoppable with Purdy at the helm, and despite the lack of Cooper Kupp, Stafford is finding ways to involve his young receivers. I have always believed in him and after facing a familiar defense now, the Rams were able to put up 23 against a top defense – their offense looks good.
Week 2 Sunday Game: Commanders vs Broncos -3.5, o/u 38.5
Winner: Commanders 35-33
Covered: Commanders +3.5, o38.5
Public on Commanders : 45%
Money on Commanders : 17%
Sharp Diff. on Commanders : -28%
Public on Over: 37%
Money on Over: 25%
Sharp Diff. on Over: -12%
STP/Deej Outcome: -1.1u on Under 38.5
Public, money, and sharp differential got ruined by some horrible game management and defense from the Broncos in the second half. Last year the Broncos defense looked like it was impossible to score on, and after the fewer than 20 points allowed to the Raiders, I expected more from them against a team that barely beat the Cardinals last week. Sharps were all over the Broncos likely because of similar reasons to myself, and the line even moved in favor of the Broncos. I elected to stay away from the spread because i expected a bit of positive regression for the Commanders, and could not gauge if they would end up covering.
Ended up taking the total because of the large sharp differential, large movement towards the under, and what I talked about earlier with the Broncos defense. Clearly, this is not the defense of old, but maybe it was a one game fluke. This offense looks so much better than it did last year with Sean Peyton, though. So, if Denver keeps getting these low totals, it may be time to flip the script.
Week 2 Sunday Game: Jets vs. Cowboys +8.5, o/u 39.5
Winner: Cowboys 30-13
Covered: Cowboys -8.5, o39.5
Public on Cowboys : 55%
Money on Cowboys : 34%
Sharp Diff. on Cowboys : -21%
Public on Over: 28%
Money on Over: 4%
Sharp Diff. on Over: -24%
STP/Deej Outcome: -1.1u on Under 38.5
This one reopened around 6 after Rodgers injury and was instantly bet up to 8.5 by the sharps. Over the week more and more money came in on the Jets, and I really thought that was the right side the whole week. Despite not having Aaron Rodgers, this Jets team is really good. However, Zach Wilson is not. The issue here is not the Jets defense, as they played well holding Dak to under 250 yards. They are the exact reason I loved the under. Yes, they let up 30 points, but the Cowboys had 42 minutes of possession and the Jets offense had 4 turnovers. I would say only allowing 380 yards of offense and 30 points is a success after those stats. Under was the right read in my opinion, ruined by Zach Wilson and losing by 1 or 2 points, depending on your line.
Week 2 Sunday Night Game: Dolphins v Patriots +2.5, o/u 46.5
Winner: Dolphins 24-17
Covered: Dolphins -2.5, u46.5
Public on Dolphins: 56%
Money on Dolphins: 37%
Sharp Diff. on Dolphins: -19%
Public on Under: 51%
Money on Under: 78%
Sharp Diff. on Under: 27%
STP/Deej Outcome: Leaned Patriots +2.5, Did not Bet
Yet another game where the larger (Geico or above) sharp differential failed to get the cover. Glad I ended up staying off this one, especially with the way the rest of the day had went. It felt like a great spot to back Bill against the Dolphins as he has yet to beat this Tua offense. Sharps brought this game nearly to a pickem’ at kick, but it did not really matter. This Dolphins offense looks like the real deal and are a force to be reckoned with in the AFC. I elected to stay away because the number felt too short for how potent this Miami offense is.
Mac Jones is starting to play well and come into his own, as evidenced by the Eagles matchup and near cover. However, luck is not on the Patriots side, they have one of the worst luck ratings in the NFL right now. I like them in some future games because of this, but ultimately glad to have stayed away here.
Week 2 Monday Night Game: Saints v Panthers +3, o/u 39.5
Winner: Saints 22-16
Covered: Push, u39.5
Public on Panthers : 61%
Money on Panthers : 32%
Sharp Diff. on Panthers : 29%
Public on Under: 45%
Money on Under: 59%
Sharp Diff. on Under: 14%
STP/Deej Outcome: Push on Panthers +3
In one of the most boring Monday Night games in recent memory me and the 29% sharp differential were blessed to get a backdoor cover from the Panthers. The CArolina defense looks okay, and I think they played pretty well given not having Jaycee Horn to defend players like Chris Olave. Olave looked amazing here and some of his great plays are the reason the Saints looked like they were going to sneak out of Carolina with a win AND a cover. However, Bryce Young decided to finally start playing decent football at the end of the game, whereas most of the way through he looked very confused.
Realistically, the better bet here was clearly the under. NFC South divisional matchup with two teams with new quarterbacks. The Saints defense looked like it is meant to be a top 10 defense, which it will be and we got some vintage horrible Derek Carr plays. The under had a nice sharp differential as well despite the large amount of overs happening earlier in the day. The line even moved a full 4 points, so wish I took that. But, a push is better than a loss on the spread! Thanks for the backdoor, Bryce.
STP/Deej After Week 1: -.3u
Thanks for reading my recap on NFL Week 2! Stay tuned for the preview coming at the end of the week, I am excited to dive into last year’s trends and get back on track in Week 3.
This is an article written by DJ Bianco
Well, Thanksgiving and Black Friday have come and gone, and we still have a full NFL slate to think about on another glorious Sunday. The Public has started the week off well, going 3-1 through Thanksgiving and Black Friday, will it continue through the entirety of...
Philly Sports Teams