NFL Week 3 Early Best Bets – NFL Sports Betting Picks

Week 3 NFL Best Bets – Early Edition

The NFL Week 3 betting slate is here and there is plenty of value to be found as the football markets continue to develop. Beat the closing line and lock in some early best bets here!

Week 2 is in the books and it was a weird one. After Week 1’s under went 12-4, the over went 12-2 heading into the Monday Night Football doubleheader. While a correction to get totals back to average was likely, I don’t believe anyone predicted an overcorrection as big as this.

My Early Bets piece for Week 2 ended up going 1-1, with the Eagles winning for us on Thursday night while the Packers choked it away late. The purpose of the Early Bets article every week is to lock in strong closing line value (CLV), but the Packers play did not end up going that way as they covered for everyone else at a +3 closing line. This week we look to change the tides and find much better value with two weeks in the books and more points of reference.

If you haven’t already, be sure to follow me on Twitter @AndyHHSports, as I oftentimes tweet out my plays in this article before I break it down. This is so you all can jump on some early line movement with me before I can get the pen to the paper. With a crazy Week 2 in the sports betting world behind us, let’s have some fun here with some of my favorite plays for Week 3!

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Miami Dolphins vs Denver Broncos

Dolphins -6.5
Total: 48

The Dolphins have gotten off to a hot start defeating the Chargers and Patriots with two stellar showcases on offense. Tua Tagovailoa looks like his former self before the concussions plagued his 2022 campaign, and Mike McDaniel is showing the world that this offense can be one of the best in the league. After averaging 23.8 points and 261.1 passing yards per game last season, Miami are averaging 30.0 points off of 355.0 passing yards a game to start their year.

On the flip side, the Denver Broncos have struggled very publicly following a one point loss in a divisional game against the Raiders and a failed comeback against the Commanders on Sunday. Russell Wilson looks like his days could be numbered despite Denver breaking the bank to acquire him in 2022, and Sean Payton is not going to be afraid to bench the future Hall of Famer in order to give this offense a spark. The offense continues to struggle due to Wilson’s inability to create like he used to, and these short little passes Russ continues to cook up are just not what the table ordered.

This line has already started to move back and forth between 6.5 and 7 throughout the day on Monday, and I expect it to hit 7 or 7.5 here as the week goes along. People are correct to be jumping on the Dolphins to win by a touchdown here as the Broncos defense has not delivered against the aerial attack at all so far against a weak Raiders side and a Sam Howell led Commanders squad. The Broncos have allowed 233 passing yards and 7.2 yards per passing attempt which ranks them 21st and 27th respectively in the league. What are these numbers going to look like against the number one passing offense in the league after two games?

I believe that even if the Dolphins defense is as porous as it was against Justin Herbert in Week 1, it will be Russell Wilson that inflicts the damage upon his own squad this time around. Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine have not done a lot to make a huge difference in the run game, and Wilson’s incompetence continues to show after a poor season in 2022. I’ll take the Dolphins to continue rolling here as this line likely continues to move.

The Play: Miami Dolphins -6.5 (-110) – 1.5 Units

Los Angeles Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals

Rams +2
Total: 44

The Joe Burrow news cycle this morning moved the Bengals from -7.5 favorites to -2 in a hurry. The calf injury Burrow dealt with this summer has been reaggravated, and in the wise words of Shannon Sharpe “how many guys have you heard of getting healthier during the football season?” I don’t see Burrow playing at all on Monday, and if you missed out on the original number, there is a great way to still get a touchdown’s worth of protection by teasing the spread as the line continues to move alongside the total.

Matthew Stafford has been without Cooper Kupp but has made due with record-breaking rooking Puka Nacua as well as Tutu Atwell. Kyren Williams is another unfamiliar face that has shown big production on the ground, and Stafford has shown a lot of trust in Kyren as he saw the end zone twice against San Fran on Sunday. With a lot of versatility where many didn’t expect it on the Los Angeles offense, there has been a lack thereof for the Bengals who are now likely without Joey B.

Coming off of back-to-back divisional losses, the Bengals are now in desperation mode to try to avoid an 0-3 start. With no Burrow, I am not sure how that happens, as the offense has already struggled at the start while the defense allowed 24 to a subpar Browns offense and 27 against Lamar and company. Cincy will not have to worry about Jackson running all over them in Week 3, but Stafford has been clinical throwing the ball so far looking like the Stafford from 2021.

I’ll side with the Rams here as plus-money underdogs while Burrow’s injury sits in uncertainity, as we may have missed out on the first batch of line movement but this game is not done yet.

The Play: Rams Moneyline (+110) – 1 Unit

Buffalo Bills @ Washington Commanders

Bills -6.5
Total: 44.5

The Bills travel to visit the undefeated Washington Commanders on Sunday, yet the team with no losses are underdogs by nearly a full touchdown. Sam Howell has had a lot of help from Brian Robinson who has had a great start to the season and has quickly made Washington fans forget about Antonio Gibson. However, when the competition you have played is made up of the Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos, the story writes itself for why you are 2-0.

With plenty of questions still surrounding Sam Howell, and Josh Allen and the Bills looking dominant following their 38-10 rout of the Raiders, I do like the Bills to win here taking the spread out of the equation. -290 on the moneyline is not even worth thinking about, but the Bills do provide a nice teaser leg with a total comfortably in the mid-40s here.

There are not a ton of stats I could find that really showed where the Commanders are weak against the rush or the pass, but they just sit middle of the table in most categories defensively which worries me for them considering the quality of competition so far. This will be the test of if these results were legit, and Josh Allen and company will look to play spoiler on the road. Give me the Bills here to round out the teaser.

TEASER OF THE WEEK:

6-Point Teaser (-120) – 1.5 Units

Rams +8

Bills -0.5

THIS IS AN ARTICLE WRITTEN BY ANDY CHASE