Welcome to Sharpen the Public – A Sports betting podcast that is data driven and based on reality
This is the first time that DJ and Andy have recorded in person together – Friends for a long time – Podcast hosts together for the first time.
Week 2 was a brutal week of awkwardness in public betting and games did not follow some of the assumed concepts we have built over time on this show. But let’s get better together – let’s see what the data has to say.
NFL has been a bit odd, and some of those things seem much clearer with the lens of available data now – hindsight is 20/20.
The differential between the two camps in betting have caused quite a bit of volatility this past week – something that is a bit of an anomaly. We are here to help you break it down.
A final note: This is a special show – as co-best men in a wedding, and with a couple of recent weddings in the Happy Hour Sports Family, we want to congratulate the writing team and the HHS sports family for adding to it’s depth of roster.
The following was originally posted by DJ on Reddit and applies to the data discussed in the podcast episode:
What’s going on guys! Apologies for the lack of posting this week, got a lot going on, but excited to get back into the public betting report. We are starting this week off good with a 2-0 Thursday to prep the weekend, but as per usual – time to update those public betting trends. As always, you can find the most information in my podcast and article, but here is everything you need to know to prep for Sunday:
OVERALL SHARPEN THE PUBLIC TRENDS:
Public Betting Percentage: 15-16-1 ATS
Money Betting Percentage: 13-18-1 ATS
Sharp Differential: 15-16-1 ATS
Public on Over: 9-8
Money on Over: 6-4
Sharp Diff. on Over: 5-2
Public on Under: 7-8
Money on Under: 11-11
Sharp Diff on Under: 13-12
WEEK 2 SHARPEN THE PUBLIC TRENDS:
Public Betting Percentage: 8-7- ATS
Money Betting Percentage: 6-9-1 ATS
Sharp Differential: 6-9-1 ATS
Public on Over: 6-3
Money on Over: 3-1
Sharp Diff. on Over: 3-0
Public on Under: 0-7
Money on Under: 2-10
Sharp Diff on Under: 3-10
Some interesting stats to say the least to start the year off, especially given the changes from what we saw last year. I find it most intriguing that the money percentage and sharp differential are starting pretty poor compared to last year. So, I am expecting as things go on what we see above will not be the new normal – but nothing is given in sports betting.
The totals flip flopping so much as well has been interesting. Last year we saw excellent records from the public, money, and sharps on the under – yet, last week was just brutal for all of those records. No one really knows what’s gonna happen this week, but I will bet on the money and sharp differential getting things right. Keep in mind there is some weather expected up and down the east coast this weekend too!
Commenting my leans below this since reddit thinks its too many characters…
Here are my leans for the week with the public betting numbers (public/money/sharp diff.):
Chargers/Vikings -1, Total 54: 44%/54%/10% on the Vikings -1
The Chargers pass defense is the worst in the NFL, while Kirk and co. has looked decent despite the Vikings being 0-2. I love the over here and would lean Vikings. Nice to see public and money on different sides in a tough one to choose here
Bills/Commanders +6.5, Total 43: 30%/32%/2% on the Commanders +6.5
Josh Allen is notorious for covering larger spreads, and the Commanders have not shown me anything positive telling me to back them. I lean Bills here but also like the under with the public on the over and money on the under.
Saints/Packers -1,5, Total 42.5: 42%/45%/3% on the Saints +1.5
This line was at 2 earlier in the week, and despite small sharp differential – I love the saints here. The Packers offense has not played a saints level D yet, and it will prove an issue for Jordan Love – like the under as well.
Falcons/Lions -3, Total 46: 41%/56%/15% on the Falcons +3
When this line was at 5 I loved it for the Falcons, however, at 3 I have to lean Lions. I don’t think this Falcons offense could keep up in a shootout given their inability to put the ball in the air. Would also lean under – again.
Browns/Titans +3.5, Total 39: 26%/33%/7% on the Browns -3.5
Mike Vrabel is one of the best coaches as an underdog, but I don’t think this helps him here. I lean Browns here because their defense is playing out of its mind and I believe Watson will be forced to improve with no Nick Chubb.
Texans/Jaguars -8, Total 44: 45%/88%/43% on the Texans +8
I have loved the Texans every week so far and they are 0-2 ATS. There is something about CJ Stroud that I love and he’s making these receivers look like pro bowlers. Maybe in another divisional game they can keep it close? Texans have the current largest sharp edge on their side.
Patriots/Jets +2.5, Total 36: 73%/83%/10% on the Patriots -2.5
This matchup last year was very very ugly. Which is why 99% of the money is on an under that is at 36 points – absolutely insane. I lean Jets here, but not heavy – probably will stay away from everything here.
Broncos/Dolphins -6.5, Total 48: 31%/72%/41% on the Broncos +6.5
To me, this is a hold your nose game and grit it out with Russ. The Dolphins have looked unbelievable to this point, while the Broncos leave a lot to be desired. I also like the over, with an 18% differential towards that. Weird game here, curious to see what it looks like tomorrow.
Colts/Ravens +8.5, Total 43: 40%/78%/38% on the Colts +8.5
Anthony Richardson is officially out, yet money continues to back the Colts here. They have looked good to this point, but their CBs scare me. I lean Colts here, but only because the Ravens have not hit their peak by any mean yet.
Panthers/Seahawks -5.5, Total 42: 19%/39%/20% on the Panthers +5.5
I lean Seahawks here especially with no Bryce Young. Its a bit curious to me why so much sharp edge is on the Panthers, but there are a few things about this game that I question. I love the under, though.
Cowboys/Cardinals +12.5, Total 43: 15%/32%/17% on the Cardinals +12.5
In game number 3 of the Cowboys stupid easy schedule, they now play the Cardinals in Arizona. Another grit your teeth and take the dog. The Cardinals have played well to this point, but the Cowboys front line may tear them a new one – so beware.
Bears/Chiefs -12.5, Total 48: 24%/38%/14% on the Bears +12.5
Similar to the Texans, I have believed in the Bears in both of their previous games. With the crazy things happening off the field for Chicago, its hard to want to back them again. The Chiefs D looks amazing right now – Only lean would be Bears TT under or the game under
Steelers/Raiders -2.5, Total 43: 46%/67%/21% on the Raiders -2.5
Despite how much I love the Steelers defense, they are not great at defending the Run. Josh Jacobs has yet to be unleashed and I believe this is his chance to do so. The Steelers offense looks worse than the Bears offense too, so all in all I love the Raiders at home here
Eagles/Buccaneers +4, Total 45: 52%/61%/9% on the Bucs +4
The number at 7 was a bit too high for the way the Eagles currently look, but down to 4 now is crazy to me. The Eagles are far from their peak, while this is as high as the Bucs may get. I loved the Bucs in the offseason, and the Eagles secondary is beaten up – but the Eagles front line is going to murder Baker – take the Birds -4
Rams/Bengals -2.5, Total 43.5: 28%/50%/22% on the Bengals -2.5
I expect a lot of this action is banking on the fact that overall – even without Burrow, this Bengals team is better than the Rams. Though, I am not sure they are, defensively that is. Without Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell, this Bengals secondary has looked lost. I lean Rams here with the experienced QB.
Thanks for reading, and I hope I can continue to give you guys interesting and new info every week. We will be back tomorrow for my best bets article, lets go!
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