NFL Week 4 Betting – Early UnceRtainty offers a lot of Value
With three weeks of sports betting action in the books, it is time to take what we have learned and take advantage of some great line in the Week 4 NFL betting markets. I have come up with a couple of different angles this week, and am looking forward to breaking it all down for you all.
Last week I went 4-2 for +2.1 units across the board, with no plays on Twitter besides the lines I eventually wrote about, and two plays on the Sharpen The Public podcast with Deej. For our Week 3 Early Best Bets though, a 2-1 record and +2.0 units is nothing to scoff at! We look to replicate that profit this week as the article is coming out later and some markets have developed, but there is still a lot of time to grab some value.
If you haven’t already, be sure to follow me on Twitter @AndyHHSports, as I oftentimes tweet out my plays in this article before I break it down. This is so you all can jump on some early line movement with me before I can get the pen to the paper. This week I tweeted out Vikings -2.5 and the line has already shifted to -4.5, so be sure to tune in for some great plays and a lot of conversation. Let’s jump right into the action!
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Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears
The Denver Broncos faced a historic loss last Sunday against the Dolphins losing 70-20, yet find find themselves as 3-and-a-half point favorites on the road again facing the Chicago Bears. The spread is a testament to how poor this Bears team has been as they also were blown out on Sunday, following up Miami’s loss with a 41-10 beating in Kansas City during the 4:30 slate. The total has moved up from 44.5 in an incredible matchup that should be know as the Shit Bowl, and I don’t quite understand why that is.
Both teams have severely lacked defense this season, with the Broncos allowing 35 points to the Commanders the week prior to the Dolphins doubling that, and the Bears ranking right in front of Denver in points per game allowed at 35.3. Yes, if these two allow as many points as they are averaging through three games, this game will almost double the total.
However, do we really expect these defenses to slack this badly back to back weeks? I don’t think the defenses are necessarily going to be the issue this game, but moreso that these two offenses cannot figure it out and continue to shoot themselves in the foot. The Bears are only averaging 15.3 points per game this season, and the addition of DJ Moore has not done what Chicago intended for it to do as they rank second to last in passing yards per game at 148.3 a contest.
Chicago should also see issues against Denver as the two games prior to the Miami outing, Denver only allowed 91.5 yards rushing on average. Josh Jacobs and Brian Robinson struggled for their respective clubs much more than Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane did for the Dolphins, and I think we will be seeing a lot more of the former for Justin Fields and Khalil Herbert against Denver. With Chicago struggling to throw the ball as a whole, and potentially going up against a much tighter rush defense than they are used to seeing, I am unsure how this team does much at home this week.
On the other side, Chicago’s defense can’t stop anything, ranking 20th in rushing yards allowed per game at 121.7, and third to last right behind Denver in passing yards allowed per game at 285.7. Denver ranks in the top 10 of passing yards per game at 245.7, and is in the middle of the pack in completions per game at 22.7 which coincidentally is the exact same number Chicago averages in completions allowed per game to opponents. With Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine leaving a lot to be desired through three games for the Broncos, I look for Courtland Sutton to once again step up as well as Jerry Jeudy as he gets back into form after starting the year with an injury.
I am not yet taking a side on this one until I see more data on where the public and the money sit, but I do believe this game will be one-sided and that one side has clearly struggled to score the ball. I’ll be taking the under here at 46 and will trust that the Broncos continue to penalize themselves as they are the third worst at penalties per game with 8.7 a contest, and I will trust that Chicago continues their mediocrity against a not so great matchup against the run in Denver.
Finally, I will also be locking in Jerry Jeudy to have more than 53.5 Receiving Yards on Thrive Fantasy as my first play to pair with their promotion this week. As I touched on in the passing stats, Jeudy against a Bears defense that cannot cover anything seems like a matchup made in haven. Jerry Jeudy is undervalued in this spot because of his slow start to the year as he came back from injury, but I think he is in for a big game against the Chicago secondary.
The Play: Under 46 (-110) – 1 Unit
Happy Hour Sports Teaser of the Week:
6-Point Teaser (-120) – 1.5 Units
This play is a bit different than the one I tweeted out on Monday, but it still fits into the range that I want to be playing in when placing a Wong Teaser. I still love both of these sides for different reasons, but the one commonality here is you are getting insurance and security on two division rival matchups where you can expect the unexpected. Here are my thoughts below:
Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders
The 3-0 Philadelphia Eagles play host to the Commanders this week who were humbled over in their last outing against the Bills in a 37-3 defeat. Following a 2-0 start, it is quite likely that Philly’s NFC East rivals will end up 2-2 after their short trip up the road from DC. The line movement has reflected that as the spread opened at -7 and has already pushed to -8.5 while the total has dropped a point.
We don’t need the Birds to cover the spread here which is quite a large one for a divisional game no matter how bad Washington just lost to Josh Allen and Buffalo by. What we do need is for the Birds to win by a field goal by teasing the spread which is much more doable. Washington are only throwing for 182.3 yards per game this season which puts them in the bottom quarter of the league, and are completing 21.7 passes a game which is around the middle of the pack.
The reason I point out Washington’s subpar passing game is that there is a case to be made that Philly’s defense against the air is not as great as people make it out to be. The Eagles are allowing 27 completions per game which puts them in 29th across the NFL, however they did play the Vikings Week 2 and allowed them to come back and cover the spread. If Howell was a bit more tactical and wasn’t so green to being an NFL starting quarterback, I would be open to the prospect of Washington having more of a case in this one.
With a lack of attack passing the ball to take advantage of where Philly is weak, Washington won’t be able to utilize their stellar 5 yards a carry rushing game as Philadelphia rank first in rush yards allowed per game at 48.3 and only allow 3 yards a carry which puts them in the Top 5 across the league. Give me the Birds to cover by a field goal after both teams are coming off of a blow out win and loss as they enter this divisional matchup where stats are often thrown out and randomness ensues.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
Speaking of stellar defenses on one side of the ball, the Browns are stellar defending both sides of the ball through three weeks. Cleveland’s defense has completely put it together under Jim Schwartz, and these massive athletic bullies will be looking to grab a divisional win against the Ravens that are fresh off of an upset loss against the Colts. I love teasing a spread across multiple key numbers when the total is this low, and with how low scoring Browns games have been this year, getting the Ravens at +9 fresh off of a loss makes a lot of sense despite the injuries Baltimore are already working to overcome.
Cleveland allows 2.8 rush yards per attempt and only allow 52 rush yards a game which both rank second in the NFL. If you thought that was impressive, the Browns are only allowing 111.7 passing yards per game off of 8.0 yards a completion which ranks them first and third respectively. When you add all of these stats together that are not normally all aligned like this, the Browns rank first in total yards allowed and points per game, only allowing 10.7 points.
The Browns will be playing their third divisional game in four weeks when they host the Ravens, and Baltimore will easily be the best offense this side has played even with the Ravens missing O Linemen, Odell Beckham Jr, and J.K. Dobbins. Lamar Jackson and company rank in the Top 5 in rushing yards per game at 158, while also ranking in the Top 10 in yards per rush attempt at 4.5 per contest. To put it in perspective, Cleveland’s previous opponents of the Bengals, Steelers, and Titans did not even crack the Top 20 in either category.
Deshaun Watson still leaves a lot to be desired on offense, and the absence of Nick Chubb was apparent last week despite Cleveland kicking Tennessee to the curb. I am not super worried about them taking such a large lead against Baltimore who knows what to expect from the Browns on offense, but I do think Baltimore’s passing offense will be my one worry here. If Cleveland is able to stuff the run as well as they have in their first three, Baltimore could be in for a long game.
Give me the divisional rival getting 9 points on this one in what has the potential to not only be a low scoring game, but also one where both sides know they can hinder the other to a 2-2 start while propelling themselves to 3-1.
THIS IS AN ARTICLE WRITTEN BY ANDY CHASE
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