NFL Week 5 Betting – Early bet placement holds your place in line
We look to once again lock in great closing line value as the Week 5 football betting markets shift early and often.
As the first quarter of NFL betting action comes to a close, the second quarter looks just as exciting for us to look at who is legitimate and who is fraudulent. Plenty of divisional standings are extremely puzzling to look at four weeks in, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to look this way by the time November rolls around.
Teams like the Cardinals, Commanders, and Buccaneers have surprised many in the NFC with how competitive they have been, while sides like the Texans, Browns, and Dolphins have been the highlights of the AFC that have gone above and beyond expectations. Teams that underperformed at the start like the Broncos, Jaguars, and Vikings all picked up wins in Week 4, but does that mean it is time to put value into that?
The purpose of this article is to jump in on a couple of NFL games early in order to lock in a positive closing line value. If you are joining for the first time, welcome! If you are a returning reader, congrats on a successful Week 4 as we cashed in for a 6-2 record for +4.8 units while the early plays from my Twitter and the article went 2-1 for +1.9 units.
This week we have a potential snoozer in Washington, DC on Thursday night as the Bears take on the Commanders, another London game with the Bills flying out to meet the Jaguars, and a few divisional matchups paired with games that will tell us who is real and who is not. Here are my thoughts on a couple of games, as well as some value I have found that I believe we can lock in early. Let’s jump right in:
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills
The Jaguars dominated the Atlanta Falcons Sunday morning in the Toy Story London Game on ESPN+, and will be staying in London to greet Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills for another morning game for the American viewers. The Jaguars have opened up as a decent-sized underdog against the Bills likely due to how dominant Buffalo has been in their last three outings. After losing Week 1 against the Jets, the Bills have won their last three games by a combined margin of THIRTY points, and will look to bring that domination to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday.
I do not think the job will be that easy for the Bills however. The Jaguars will no longer have any jet lag and will be acclimated in London, and Jacksonville throws at a much higher rate than Buffalo are used to through their first four. The Jaguars pass the ball nine more times a game than the Bills are used to seeing against their opponents this season, with the Bills only allowing 27.5 passes a game which ranks them towards the top of the NFL.
The Jaguars will look to take advantage of the Bills injured Tre’Davious White being out for this contest and the numbers show they aren’t afraid to throw the ball. However, it is clear they are going to keep running Travis Etienne as much as they can as he is averaging over 17 carries a game. This is where things could get dicey for Buffalo, as they are in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing yards allowed per game but are dead last in rush yards per play allowed at 6.3 per attempt. We saw De’Von Achane take advantage of this despite losing 42-20, as the rookie averaged over 12.6 yards a carry.
With Buffalo flying into a fully rested Jacksonville Jaguars side and a great portion of people likely to side with the Bills due to their recent form, I am going to zag and take the Jaguars +5.5. I would be surprised if this game goes up to the +6.5 range, as I see it more as a +4.5 to +5.5 spread throughout the week with a lot of variables going into this one. People are still low on Jacksonville following their close opener against the Colts until the final minutes followed by back to back losses to the Chiefs and Texans. However, remember how high everyone was on this side back in August, and look for them to surprise many as they give Buffalo a run for their money across the pond.
The Play: Jaguars +5.5 (-110) – 1 Unit
Happy Hour Teaser of the Week:
6-Point Teaser (-120) – 1.5 Units
Last week’s Teaser of the Week cashed for us as the Eagles barely pulled it off against the Commanders in overtime and the Ravens ended up winning outright as the Browns offense looked to be in disarray. I was correct about how well the Ravens matched up against a Browns defense that everyone in the media was worshiping, and am glad that we got the added security in the Eagles game to win by a field goal.
This week I am teasing up the Texans on the road as they take on a Falcons team in need of setting themselves back in the win column, as well as a Lions side playing host to the 0-4 Panthers. Here are my thoughts:
Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons
CJ Stroud has been one of the best rookies in the 2023 Draft class so far, showing the Texans that they were right to invest in him as their quarterback of the future. The rookie has yet to throw an interception and is averaging 302 passing yards a game through his first four. Nico Collins and Tank Dell have been great weapons for the rookie out of Ohio State, and they’ll look to bring this strong passing offense to Atlanta on Sunday.
I was wrong about the Falcons defense this season as they have been the ones moving the needle for this team. Atlanta’s defense are only allowing 19.3 points per game to their opponents, however, that doesn’t mean the offense has been able to return the favor much at all. The Bijan Robinson show has been electric to watch, but it is about all that this offense has to offer as Desmond Ridder continues to struggle.
The good news for the Falcons is that the middle of the defensive line for Houston leaves a lot to be desired. Arthur Smith will likely look to avoid third-overall pick Will Anderson Jr. of the Texans and continue to pound the ball on the left or use Robinson creatively up the sides as he has done a lot this season. However, I think Houston will also look to abuse the right hand side of Jeff Okudah and Richie Grant on the Falcons with their newfound stud receivers, making this a much more interesting ball game than fans may anticipate. I’ll take the red hot Texans with some added security.
Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers
The Lions will be coming off of plenty of rest having played in the Thursday Night Football game in Week 4. This side look to be coming into their own offensively, with David Montgomery showing that he has no problem postponing the Jahmyr Gibbs hype train. Montgomery has been on fire running the ball, which will be favorable for him against a Carolina rush defense that leaves a lot to be desired.
Speaking of leaving a lot to be desired, it has been a rough start for Bryce Young and the Panthers which is frustrating for all involved after Carolina traded up to acquire Young at first overall skipping over CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson who have both looked strong so far. It is clear that no matter what, Adam Thielen will still be getting his catches for this offense, but it may be harder for Young to find him as he matches up against Brian Branch in Detroit. Carolina’s offensive line looked to be a top 10 unit heading into the season, but have highly disappointed and may have a long night ahead against Aidan Hutchinson and Derrick Barnes of the Lions defensive line.
Unfortunately for Carolina there is only so much Frankie Luvu can do, as he will have his hands full at linebacker while his teammates at free safety and corner take on Josh Reynolds and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The D Line for the Panthers will also have a tough matchup against a stellar O Line from Detroit. With extra preparation, a lot of matchup wins, and overall two polar opposite offenses in terms of form, I like the Lions a lot here to win by a field goal or more at home.
NFL Week 5 Games to Monitor:
New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots
The Patriots opted to bench Mac Jones during the third quarter of their loss against the Dallas Cowboys. Bailey Zappe wasn’t necessarily the game changer they were looking for, and now the Patriots have an added fold of drama as the team looks to figure out what to make of their 1-3 start. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints are coming off their largest defeat of the season against Baker Mayfield and the Bucs, and are currently 0-3-1 ATS this season. I was not super high on the Saints in our most recent episode of Sharpen The Public, but I think they do matchup alright against the Patriots and I will be watching this one to see where the line moves.
As of early Monday morning, I lean the Saints, but will wait to see if there is any additional news. The injury to Matthew Judon will be a massive loss for the Patriots, and I believe that the quarterback situation is going to overshadow a lot of the other deficiencies this team has. New Orleans is not the most complete package, but they at least have more to offer than New England does after four weeks of action.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals
Surely it cannot get worse for the Bengals right? Do the Cardinals actually want to tank or are they going to keep playing everyone closer than we expect? Cincy enters this matchup 1-3 and 0-4 ATS, while the Cardinals may share the same record but are 3-1 ATS which has been a blessing for bettors who are hip to what this team has to offer.
Josh Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise for Arizona after they traded for the former Tennessee quarterback right before the season started, and I do think he has what it takes as a dog at home once again. Early indications seem to show that people agree with me, as the Cardinals are already moving from +4.5 to +4, which makes me want to sit this one out and wait. The Bengals are without Tee Higgins next week due to a rib injury, but unfortunately the Bengals elite receiving corp has not been the issue this season as everyone else has dropped the ball along with Joe Burrow still looking quite injured. I’ll be watching this one closely to see what goes down throughout the week.
THIS IS AN ARTICLE WRITTEN BY ANDY CHASE
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