The Sharpen the Public Podcast covers Best Bets for Week 9 in the NFL – Using public betting trends
Every week this NFL season seems to get crazier and crazier. Thankfully, NFL Week 9 has arrived and we are ready to bring you the best betting trends, information, and bets to prepare you for the slate. Here you will find the best ways to bet on premier matchups like the Seattle Seahawks vs the Baltimore Ravens and even the Dallas Cowboys vs the Philadelphia Eagles.
What new trends are in store for us after 8 weeks? There was finally a week relatively good for overs, but will people continue to overthink totals? After the public’s bounce-back week, can they stay hot, or finally cool off in this 2023 season? Our unique public betting trends indicate things may continue for the general betting public.
Per usual we will take this point a bit further later, but through the first seven weeks, the public is a staggering 63-53 ATS! This remains to be the Public’s best start to a year since 2005, which is absurd. At this point in the season last year, the public was 10 games under .500 and now they are 10 games .500. The money and sharp differential are at the exact same win percentage from 2022, though, so can we expect the same ending in 2022 for 2023?
If you are new here, welcome to Happy Hour Sports, my name is DJ and I track how the public and money do each week in the NFL. We want to take the phrase “fade the public” further because everyone talks about the betting public and money data, but when those numbers are brought up, there is no context around them. People assume high tickets on one side is bad, and high money on the other side is good. However, we are here to prove those claims right or wrong, every single week.
Our goal with Sharpen the Public and the weekly articles on this website is to provide context to the numbers and develop discourse regarding the data. If you are ever curious as to when the public does good, or what sharp differentials are strong indicators that a bet is the sharp side, then you have come to the right place. Follow the podcast and listen to us break everything down each week!
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With that out of the way, it’s time to get into this week’s best bets and analysis. Here you will find the bets that I place every week and some discussion on why I am taking most of them. We’re not trying to be those Twitter handicappers that scream max play at you, we want you to trust us. Don’t forget you can always find my recaps of the weeks here as well – detailing where things went wrong and how I did. I had a rough week last week going 5-7, but there’s never been a better time to bounce back. We also went 2-0 on Thursday to start this week hot.
It’s already week 9 and the games and data are beginning to stack up. We have all of last year to help influence our picks for this year and with the influx of bettors entering the market (evidenced by the bet totals last week); the sky’s the limit for where we can take our information and bets.
Deej Record from Week 8:
- Bets: 5-7
- Leans: 4-1-1
Week 9 NFL Betting Trends
Since we are already through week 8, that means we have official data to report regarding the public betting trends to influence our Week 9 bets. Check out the full recap article and many other NFL pieces at our NFL BETTING PICKS. Additionally, the recent podcasts always break down the updates to the trends. If you missed that, here they are:
- Public Betting Percentage: 63-53 ATS (54%)
- Money Betting Percentage: 61-55 ATS (53%)
- Sharp Differential: 58-58 ATS (50%)
- Public on Over: 27-41 (40%)
- Money on Over: 18-28 (40%)
- Sharp Diff. on Over: 12-13 (48%)
- Public on Under: 28-20 (58%)
- Money on Under: 41-31 (57%)
- Sharp Diff on Under: 56-36 (61%)
Now, we are the only people who provide deep recaps on these numbers like this every week; but, we are also the only sports betting brand that will dive deeper into these numbers and tell you important ranges that trends emerge from the already crazy trends you see above.
For example, through week 8, when the sharp differential has been between 10 and 14 % on a team, those teams are 18-6 ATS, which is absolutely crazy! However, the good thing about doing this week in and week out is to try and predict what will happen to trends early on. We saw this same range go 26-19 ATS in 2022, so you may be able to fade this range as it makes it way down a trail of regression. We said the same thing last week, and the range went 1-2.
Other crazy trends include a 33-13 record when the under is between a 5-19% sharp differential. Money percentages on the over are 3-12 below 60%, but 15-16 above that number. Public backing the over greater than 70% is 4-14. There is so much cool stuff to derive from this information, whether you want to believe it or not. We even have specific trends for specific teams, like the public is 5-2 backing overs in Bears games, wild!
As for the general trends – we are continuing to see similar trends from last year, like the public doing well on the under, but bad on the over. Through 8 weeks last year, the public was 30-50 on overs, so they are pretty much right in line with what happened last year. I think this means we can lean on more overs to happen in the latter half of the year, since we saw the same thing happen last year near the midpoint of the season.
Totals in general feel as though they have been in flux for the entirety of the season. Unders are still killing it from an aggregate standpoint, but last year overs entered the market again. Have totals gotten low enough to where things will begin to even out over the rest of the season? I think yes as last year we saw a similar phenomenon and the public did not do terrible backing overs in the second half of the season – finishing 7 games below .500 in the second half of the year (compared to their 20 games under .500 in the first half of the year).
However, from a spread standpoint, with the public remaining the talk of the town we need to understand what that means. The public is a staggering 20 games better than they were at this point in 2022, so is the general betting public smarter? Are lines getting worse, where more people can take advantage? So many questions can be derived from the one point of the public performing well, but my instinct says this is a statistical outlier given the amount of data we are comparing to, so I would expect regression is still coming. The issue is how can we know which week is the right one to fade them entirely?
We can’t, but we can take a look at the deeper trends each week. Knowing last week the public bounced back from a bad week indicates they could be in line to get hot again. However, the Thursday game can be a good indicator for the rest of the week and the public had the Steelers and the under. These are small things that could indicate another good public week is in store for us.
Every game is different, and I want that to be clear. However, as we continue to track the general public betting trends over the season, we will have more information than the average bettor, and we don’t need much logic to bet better than them. Anyway, let’s get into the picks because I cannot wait for this slate!
Note that I am writing this around 9:00 a.m. on Sunday morning, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on Twitter to see those picks. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider sticking around and subscribing!
Week 9 NFL Best Bets and Analysis
Washington Commanders vs New England Patriots (-2.5), Total 40.5
To ramp up this ugly Sunday slate, we get to see the new look Commnaders come into Foxborough to take on the Patriots. After the loss to the Eagles in week 8, the Commanders dealt two of their best edge rushers and all-around players (Montez Sweat and Chase Young). The loss of these guys is going to be a massive issue for Washington on the defensive front – adding to that they were already one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL. They look incredibly inconsistent and have no motivation to win (hence the major trades). Bill Belichick has records to play for and it looks like the Pats offense is slowly trending in the right direction. While it feels ugly, I like Belichick and this Pats defense to bring out the far worse version of Sam Howell in New England.
The Play: Patriots -2.5 -114 (1u)
Seattle Seahawks vs Baltimore Ravens (-6.5), Total 44.5
In likely the best game of the 1 p.m. slate, we have the Seahawks coming into Baltimore to face the red-hot Ravens. I love how the Ravens have looked as of late. Lamar Jackson looks to be back to himself, running when he needs to and being very efficient with throwing the ball now that he’s got Zay Flowers. While their defense is playing absolutely lights out and looking like the best in the league (they average 15.1ppg allowed). I think this is a very difficult spot for a good Seahawks team to come in and put out the fire that is Seattle. While this spread does feel like too many to me, I’m eyeing up the total. Both of these teams want to keep the ball on the ground – Seattle with Kenneth Walker and the Ravens with Lamar. I don’t see any offense quieting this Ravens defense at home, especially this Seahawks offense that has looked very inconsistent as of late if they cannot get things going on the ground. The public loves the over at 78% and historically, that indicates bet the under. The under has hit a 72% from this season and last with these circumstances.
The Play: Under 44.5 -110 (1u)
Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons (-4), Total 37.5
What a matchup we get to witness in Atlanta today with Jarren Hall facing off against Taylor Heinicke. Plainly put for this one, the Vikings are built to have a better team despite both teams being 4-4 right now. No Justin Jefferson, but Hall will still have some great outlets in Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and Alexander Mattison to keep things moving. Things should be the same for the Falcons on the other side of the ball, but with Drake London out I think this Falcons offense is going to be more limited than people think. The public is split on this one with the money heavily siding with Minnesota. The Vikings have the better defense, and I don’t think Atlanta should be favored by 4 against anyone here. Expect both offenses to look slow and flat and the game to remain close. I could see Atlanta winning by a field goal, but don’t see them doing any better than that.
The Play: Vikings +4 (1u) -110
Indianapolis Colts vs Carolina Panthers (+2.5), Total 44
Despite it feeling like the Colts are on top of the world right now, they are 0-3 since losing Anthony Richardson. The issue for Indianapolis are very much on the defensive side of the ball. Allowing over 35ppg over their last 3 and ranking dead last in several categories (Points, plays, and rushing TDs). In the other hand, you have an offense that is coming off their first win and trending in a positive direction. Frank Reich has made significant changes to this offense to get Bryce Young in better situations and more comfortable. I’m actually surprised to see the public, money, and sharps on the Panthers here, but as I’m writing this all the numbers fit some good trends for us to back the Panthers – one being an 18-6 ATS trend. There are not many home dogs this week, so I’m rolling with the one we have.
The Play: Panthers +2.5 (1u) -110
Plays without a writeup:
- Bears +8.5 -110 (Podcast)
- Colts/Panthers o43.5 -110 (Podcast)
- Bucs +9/Giants +7.5 Teaser
The Leans (May take some of these closer to kickoff)
After getting such an incredible response to start the season this year, I think I want to continue to give out my leans in games that I am not even betting on because it may help others with their decisions. So if you have seen my recent Reddit posts you will see that I update these as the weeks go on. Based on all the current public betting information, here is what I am thinking for Week 9 of the NFL!
- Rams/packers – this game feels so ugly to me and I have no idea what to think. Both offenses have massive holes and with the Stafford questions, I’m staying away. I have to lean Packers though.
- Cardinals/Browns – I loved the Browns here on the podcast but that was when the line was 8 points. 12/13 is far too many for me to be comfy with this Browns offense and their defense of late so I’m staying away.
- Eagles/Cowboys – despite me hating the slate, this is one of the few games I don’t have a bone in and it’s because I may be Eagles-biased here. I think they are far better than this Cowboys team and handle things easily at home.
- Week 8 Article | Podcast | YouTube
Thanks for reading! If you guys like what you see or have any comments/critiques, please let me know on Twitter, I appreciate all feedback. Please also follow the podcast and share the website! I will see you on Tuesday with another recap episode of Sharpen the Public.
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