NFL Week 9 Best Bets – NFL Betting and Early Closing Line Value
The Week 9 NFL betting slate will feature some of the best matchups to date in the 2023 NFL season thus far. We have got a game in Munich between the Dolphins and Chiefs, a top cross-conference matchup between the Seahawks and Ravens, as well as some fantastic afternoon games like the Bills and Bengals or Cowboys and Eagles. It may be early in the week, but now is the time to lock in some positive closing line value on these key matchups across the NFL betting markets.
Be sure to check out the Sharpen the Public Podcast for plenty of more NFL Week 9 betting plays and analysis, including deep dives on what trends are worth investing in with the public, money, and sharp betting percentages. If you want to keep up with my other plays this week, give our Week 9 episode a listen later this week, and follow me on Twitter @AndyHHSports as I often give out a play or two there come Sunday. With that out of the way, let’s jump right into the Week 9 NFL action!
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns | Cardinals +8 | Total: 37.5
Arizona had some big news come out regarding who may be featuring at quarterback for them in Week 9, with Clayton Tune and Kyler Murray both in contention to play as Josh Dobbs surprisingly takes a back seat following an above average first half to the NFL season by many people’s expectations. With a change at quarterback in the balance, the NFL’s worst team according to record in the Arizona Cardinals travel to Cleveland for quite the change of scenery and quite the road trip as the total sits at 37.5 and continues to drop from where it opened at 39.
The Cardinals find themselves in a very similar situation to their game at Washington in Week 1. Arizona were 7-point dogs in that contest with a 38-point total and had a very large public backing on the opposing side of the Commanders. Many thought the Cardinals would be that poor that they could not possibly cover a spread of a touchdown or more, and yet Arizona almost won the game. Now, the Browns are considerably better than the Commanders are, but are we still giving Cleveland too much credit after their defense carried them to a surprising start to the 2023 season?
The Browns lead the league in least yards allowed per game as a whole, as well as against the pass. However, Cleveland rank in the bottom 12 of the league in yards allowed per game over their last three games, allowing 344.3 total yards and 130 rushing yards in their last three games which ranks them in the bottom quarter of the NFL. It is worth noting that the Browns faced the Niners, Colts, and Seahawks during that stretch who have all proven to be capable offenses, but now they face a Top 5 rushing yards per game offense in the Arizona Cardinals.
With the Browns slipping up in their rushing defense over the last several weeks, I am not overly worried about who is going to play under center for Arizona on Sunday. I also love this spot for the Cardinals with the spread being so large on such a low total. After all, for being the worst team in the standings, the Cardinals are still 4-4 ATS which puts them at an even .500 which is the same as the 3-3-1 ATS Cleveland Browns as far as percentages go against the spread. Cleveland are around the middle of the table in yards per rush allowed, but have slipped to 4.8 yards per rush allowed over the last three games which does not fare well against Arizona’s second ranked yards per rush attempt attack at 5.1 yards per rush, sitting only behind the Miami Dolphins.
Give me the Cardinals here to cover the 8 points on the road, and if this spread moves any more I may also throw a little bit more. I will see you at the window as we have deja vu of taking the Cardinals in Week 1 with very similar indicators.
The Play: Arizona Cardinals +8 (-110) – 1.25 Units
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Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) @ Carolina Panthers
The Colts might have the quietest offense in the league right now, and nobody is saying much about it with Indy sitting in the bottom quarter of the league with a 3-5 record following a 2-1 start to the season. Even without Anthony Richardson for the majority of games this season, Indy have scored at least 20 points in every game thus far, making them the ONLY NFL team to do so this year. The Panthers defense may have held up against CJ Stroud and the Texans last week coming off of a bye, but do you trust Carolina to string together two in a row after starting 0-6?
The matchups here are very favorable for Indy, and it seems that many agree as this spread continues to move. The Colts rank 6th in yards per rush attempt, while the Panthers rank bottom five in rush yards allowed per attempt as both clubs average close to 4.5 rush yards in their respective categories listed previously. Indianapolis is also in the top quarter of the league in rushing yards per game averaging 129, while the Panthers are allowing ten more than that at 139 rushing yards a game, putting them just ahead of Denver and the Jets at the bottom of the league.
I don’t expect the Colts to throw an insane amount as things have worked so well on the ground with Zack Moss and now Jonathan Taylor getting back up to speed as well. The Colts are around the middle of the league in a lot of passing categories while the Panthers still rank in the Top 10 defensively against the pass in several stats themselves. They showed their abilities to halt the CJ Stroud hype train, but my biggest question for Carolina will be if all of that energy and prep following the bye week went into just prepping for the number two overall pick after he has shown up Bryce Young thus far this season.
I will take the Colts here on the road, with the Panthers still needing to prove a lot more than a win against the Texans for me to believe this team is worth a damn. Indy’s rushing heavy attack should give the Panthers fits, compared to a heavily pass first offense in Houston that struggled against Carolina over the weekend. I will be going with -2.5 at -115 juice on Draftkings, with many books moving the juice to -120 and soon moving the spread to -3 or more most likely.
The Play: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 (-115) – 1 Unit
NFL Week 9 Games to Monitor for Betting Advantages
Tennessee Titans (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Titans make the voyage to Pittsburgh with a short turnaround following the debut of Will Levis as he led Tennessee to victory over Atlanta over the weekend. Now the rookie must go to Pittsburgh against a much more formidable defense, and to be honest, the only unit that is keeping this Pittsburgh team afloat. It is looking like Mitch Trubisky will draw the start with Kenny Pickett injured – but does it matter?
This line has moved from +4 to +3 and may move even further, and I am looking to zag here and back the Steelers. There will continue to be a lot of hype after the Will Levis show went better than expected in Week 8, but on short notice for a rookie against a solid defense like Pittsburgh, I like the home team to prevail with the points. The only reason I am not locking in just yet is because I believe this line gets to 2.5 or better, and if it does I will be locking in the Steelers. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @AndyHHSports to see my play for this game when Thursday comes around this week!
THIS IS AN ARTICLE WRITTEN BY ANDY CHASE
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