It can be debated as to which team looked the best in that first round but in reality, they both had issues. This series is priced very competitively from a betting perspective but are we sure Denver isn’t a little undervalued? They are 34-7 straight up at home and covered over 60% of those games. The Suns’ profile is more difficult to gauge with their roster being revamped halfway through the season. If they play anything like they did against the Clippers, this one will end early because the Nuggets are far superior to what they saw in LA.
There was nothing to take from the regular season meetings as neither team was at full strength at any of the three matchups. Sticking to the matchup topic, I think both teams pose unique threats to the other but the Nuggets have a few more advantages. On the Suns’ side, I think this is a Kevin Durant series. The Nuggets’ perimeter defenders had a hard time stopping Anthony Edwards, who averaged 31.6 points per game. While Edwards is characterized as a guard, he played more small forward this series due to the injuries.
The Nuggets are likely to hide Porter Jr on Craig and match Aaron Gordon up with Durant. If this happens, the pick-and-roll with Durant and Booker will cause problems. Durant played well in the Clippers series but Booker was the tone-setter on both ends. Durant ranked 13th in usage rate so far in the playoffs while Booker is 7th which proves that point to be mostly true. Denver has more bodies to throw at Booker than they do Durant from a matchup perspective and what happens if Aaron Gordon gets into foul trouble? I will tell you what happens – you will see Durant scoring 35+ every night.
Jamal Murray is the advantage point for the Nuggets. In the five games against the Clippers, the Suns struggled to defend Westbrook and Powell. I think I speak for all of us when I say that Jamal Murray is a few levels above both of those players. Chris Paul Is a year older and not the defender he once was and I would assume that Okogie is locked in on Porter Jr so Durant can roam and help out on Jokic. This leaves Murray having a clear advantage against a slower less-athletic backcourt of Phoenix. Murray is excellent in the mid-range area which is where the Suns are susceptible. They allow the 26th most mid-range opportunities and that is something that Murray will exploit.
Matchups dictate how well a team performs in the playoffs and this is no different. The Suns are behind the 8-ball already due to their unwillingness to shoot the three. They rank 26th in non-corner three-point frequency but 1st in mid-range frequency. At this rate, they would have to attempt an absurd amount of shots to be close to what the Nuggets do offensively. Phoenix also struggles to defend without fouling (30th free-throw rate defense) which could result in early bonus situations and with their depth they cannot afford any foul trouble.
The weakness of the Nuggets is their rim protection. They rank 29th in rim% defense but do we trust Ayton to capitalize? I certainly do not, especially with him garnering the task of guarding the two-time MVP. The Suns are not an attacking downhill type of team. Booker is the only player who consistently attacks the rim which is why they rank 30th in rim frequency. The Nuggets defense was an issue all year but the metrics show they are an improved unit that ranks 6th in mid-range% and 4th in three-point% defense.
Defending the mid-range is something you want from your defense in this particular matchup. You are going against three of the more prolific mid-range scorers in history and if you don’t have an answer, it could be a nightmare. Fortunately for the Nuggets, they defend it well and are well-equipped to slow the Suns’ mid-range barrage down. On the opposite side, the Suns struggle to defend the three, specifically the corners. They are 28th in corner three-point% allowed while the Nuggets are 2nd offensively in that category.
The Suns are extremely top-heavy (obviously) but outside of that, I think Denver poses more upside and balance. They have more defenders to neutralize (or try to) Booker so the focus will shift to just containing Durant. Their offensive prowess and the ability of Joker to control the game without scoring is likely to be more than what the Suns can handle. A lot of the deficiencies that Denver has, the Suns don’t do well. Add that to them being elite at home, I think the Nuggets are being slightly disrespected by the betting market and media members.
Ideally, I like the Nuggets to win in a long series. The longer the series goes, the better it is for Denver who is the deeper and more balanced team. Would I be surprised if the Suns won? Of course not, but I would be surprised if the Nuggets are not able to exploit some of the deficiencies the Clippers showed them in that first series. Both teams rank bottom six in free-throw rate offense so it should be a free-flowing series that shapes up to be good for television. Both teams can play at any pace, although the Nuggets are superior in the half-court. Would not be looking for a ton of points in this series on a game-to-game basis. Low-scoring, efficient, and effective defense is the key to the Nuggets going to the Western Conference Finals.
