Premier League Primer and Week in Review

Premier League Primer and Week in Review

A quick glance at the calendar for March will show a massive international break cutting the month in half. It will be a welcome respite for some who have picked up knocks and muscle strains through the winter months but for others, it represents an undesired break in momentum after building up form following the winter transfer window. Either way, clubs will have an opportunity to regroup, reassess and plan for the final sprint of the season as the ground thaws and the weather warms. 

A deeper look at the schedule for the month will also uncover another theme: marquee matchups every weekend. We’re talking City vs Liverpool, Arsenal vs Chelsea, Arsenal vs Manchester City, Aston Villa vs Tottnenham, even Chelsea vs Newcastle could prove to be a significant match come season end. All these matches condensed within 3 match weeks in March on either side of the international break. It could prove to be the period of the calendar where entire seasons are made or broken.

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Manchester Derby

City have largely dominated the Manchester Derby in recent seasons. They are winners of 4 out of the last 5 Manchester Derbies coming into this one, and the tale of the tape would give a significant lean towards Pep Guardiola’s side coming out victorious yet again. City had been scraping by in recent weeks having been kept to a single goal in each of their last 3 games, but that was still enough for them to secure 7 out of 9 points and keep them in step with Liverpool and Arsenal at the top of the table. United finally had their offensive breakthrough having scored 12 goals in their previous 4 league matches which posed the question, could we be in for an upset? 

It certainly seemed that way in the first half. Marcus Rashford opened the scoring with a wonder strike that went completely against the run of play. It was the type of goal you dread as a fan of the team on the front foot. Out of nowhere, a player who hasn’t scored since New Years pulls a dagger out of his pocket. It would also allow United to bunker down and defend in a low block knowing that they would be happy even if they conceded because a draw would provide a “positive result.”

While City fans may have felt restless at the break, the second half showed there was little need for concern. It took just over 10 minutes into the second half for Phil Foden to respond to Marcus Rashford’s wonder strike with one of his own. With the score now level and United struggling to get even a touch of the ball in City’s half, it was merely a formality for when City would score their second and deceive goal. Again, it came from Phil Foden in the 80th minute followed by a Halaand stoppage-time nail in United’s coffin.

The final result appeared predictable: a 3-1 home win for Manchester City. On the back of a 5-goal outburst from Haaland in the FA Cup midweek, City’s scoring woes look to be a thing of the past. They have their key players healthy and are fully geared up for their patented spring charge that typically results in trophies and glory come May. They haven’t lost a game since their match at Aston Villa in the first week of December and have won 17 of their 19 matches across all competitions since then. March presents them with arguably their toughest set of fixtures to navigate, but if they manage wins against Liverpool and Arsenal during this period, you might as well stencil their name onto the Premier League trophy.  

Brighton Stumbling Out of Europe

On the opposite side of the form spectrum from City, you will find Brighton Hove Albion. A squad that was a darling of the league given their strong performances despite getting picked apart each transfer window by bigger clubs with deeper pockets (cough Chlesea). Recent results, however, have shown a concerning drop in form and as a result now has Brighton outside of European qualification as the table stands today.  

Since the end of January, Brighton have won just 3 matches (including a pair of victories against lowly Sheffield United) out of 9 and have struggled to score which has been one of their strengths throughout the first half of the season. In fact, if you remove the Sheffield games, Brighton have scored just 6 goals in the 7 matches in that time period with 4 coming against Palace in a single game. 

This past weekend they conceded 3 goals to Fulham in a shutout defeat that should be raising alarm bells within the club. They have plenty of fair reasons for why they are struggling. Joao Pedro and Karou Mitoma have been missing through injury in recent weeks. Chelsea have picked apart not only their playing squad, but much of the backroom staff as well. However, these challenges aren’t new to Brighton and they have been succeeding in the face of these headwinds for the past 2 seasons. European competition may not be a “requirement” for Brighton like other clubs in the top half of the table, but it has proved to be a key cog in their machine, allowing them funds to acquire young emerging talent and a stage to showcase these players for future profits on their eventual sales. There is still time left in the season for them to make up the ground lost this past month and lord knows Newcastle and West Ham aren’t in the greatest of form either, but there is a sense of urgency now that results need to change or else they might find themselves falling into the mid table mediocrity that many other clubs have been mired in the last few years.

Luton Town out of Steam?

Most of this season, the relegation battle has felt all but a given. The newly promoted sides were struggling mightily in the Premier League and their tickets back to the Championship were close to being punched. Everton’s 10 point deduction for FFP violations provided a bit of a spark and around that time Luton Town started stringing together competent performances that saw them tallying points and bubbling up from the bottom of the table. 

That has all come crashing down in the last few weeks. I discussed the change in points deduction for Everton last week that now sees them 5 points above the drop. Luton Town’s run of form also started to run dry with the losses and empty results beginning to stack up again. This weekend’s match against Aston Villa at Kenilworth Road provided an opportunity to change that narrative and build back some momentum.

The opening half was not what the home fans were hoping for as Ollie Watkins notched a quick brace that gave Villa a healthy lead going into half. Luton Town fought back and managed to pull level at 2 goals apiece thanks to a pair of goals in quick succession in the 66th and 72nd minutes. The momentum that Luton Town needed was finally on their side but in the 89th minute, Lucas Digne sank those hopes with a winning goal for the visitors and left Luton Town once again empty handed.

I am holding out from saying the writing is on the wall for Luton Town. That is certainly the case for fellow Premier League newcomers Burnley and Sheffield United as they can start making plans for next season in the Championship. With Everton seemingly out of reach, it appears it will be down to Nottingham Forest as the remaining “challenger” for the final relegation spot. Forest have their own FFP transgressions looming over their head which may yet provide a lifeline for Luton Town but before those are announced, look for the March 16th meeting between these two sides as a potential relegation defining matchup when the final results are tallied at the end of the season.  

Arsenal Guns Blazing

A quick note on the continued offensive form that Arsenal have found themselves in. They managed 5 goals in the opening half against Sheffield United which put them at 9 consecutive haves scoring 2+ goals. The Gunners bottled the streak in the second half managing just a measly goal from Ben White giving them a final score of 6-0 and a points tally nearly in line with Liverpool and Manchester City. 

As I wrote last week, this was the end of the easy part of Arsenal’s schedule. Fixtures start to ramp up with Brentford coming to town this weekend before a midweek Champions League clash against Porto where Arsenal need to overcome a 1-0 deficit. Their month ends with a trip to the Etihad which, depending on the City vs Liverpool result this weekend, could provide Arteta and company an opportunity to jump into the top spot of the league table for the first time in 2024. 

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