Rusty’s UFC 294 Main Card Best Bets
Greetings everyone thanks for tuning in. I want to remind everyone who’s reading this that the early prelims start at 10am. I made a grave mistake of promising my wife if do a pumpkin patch Saturday (fully convinced in my own head it was a genius move to score some brownie points and be home for the fights) not realizing the card started so early. So please mark off your calendars correctly.
For this article I’m going to go through the main card for Saturday and my favorite bets in each fight.
Said Nurmagomedov (-225) vs Muin Gafurov +185
The favorite enters this fight at 17-3 vs the underdog at 18-5. Said has to be about the 18th nurmagomedov we’ve seen in the last handful of years in the UFC. Dagestan just breeds great fighters. Muin hails from Tajikistan which prior to researching these fights I have literally never heard of before. Anyways. Both these guys are coming off losses and are looking to get their careers back on track. Interestingly, all of their losses have come from decisions (I have not verified that at all just something I saw online). For victories Muin has finished 17 of his 18 wins (14 in the first round), vs said finishing 9 of 17 wins and 8 in the first round. Don’t overthink this. Take the Dagestani.
The pick: Nurmagomedov ML (2u); Nurmagomedov ML/ over 1.5 rounds parlay (1u @-110)
Ikram Aliskerov(-625) vs Warlley Alves (+455)
Starting with the favorite we have the 14-1 (10 by finish) Dagestani, Sambo world champ Ikram Aliskerov going against the dog 15-6 Warrley Alves (10 finishes as well). This fight has fireworks written alllll over it. Should be an absolute banger. This is going to be a war and it’s hard to envision a scenario with the Dagestani does not come out on top but I personally won’t bet -625 (although I’ll use in parlays).
The picks: Ikram to win by finish (2u); U1.5 (1u); Ikram/ Khamzat ML parlay (2u)
I don’t hate a small 0.25 u hedge Alves to win by KO @ +1000 because the only chance those bets don’t win is a luck shot ko from Alves.
Magomed Ankalaev (-375) vs Johnny Walker (+295)
The favorite is yet again another Dagestani with an 18-1-1 record with 9 wins coming from ko/tko with his last fight being a draw to Jan Blachowicz. In the other corner we have the 21-7 (18 finishes, 17 in the first round) athletic bomber Johnny Walker. Both of these guys have great knockout power but as we saw in their last fights they’re both becoming a little more patient and strategic. I’m still guessing we get a finish but I’m guessing it’ll be later in the fight. I also think this fight will be a little closer then Vegas is predicting. For that reason I also like Johnny Walker.
The picks: O1.5 rounds (1u) ; Johnny Walker ML (1u)
Kamaru Usman (+270) vs Khamzat Chimaev (-340)
These two gentlemen need absolutely zero introduction. I love both of these guys so this one breaks my heart. It feels like Kamaru has not been the same since taking that head kick KO. Plus he’s moving up to 185. Plus he’s taking this fight on like 12 days notice. Breaks my heart to see but I think we’re seeing the decline of one of the all time greats. On the other hand Khamzat is a straight up murderer. He’s on an absolute SMESHING tear RN and I don’t see an ol banged up Marty stopping him.
The picks: Ikram/ Khamzat ML parlay (2u); Khamzat by tko/ko (2u); Khamzat win by finish -115 (in the off chance he subs Kamaru) (1u)
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Islam Makhachev (-278) vs Alexander Volkanovski (+225)
Fuck I’m gonna bust. I can not wait for this rematch. Volk arguably won the first fight but it was certainly close. I also think he ended the fight on a serious high note. Islam basically couldn’t do anything to him on the ground and Volk stunned him very late. This has to have built Volk’s confidence insanely high. Sure he’s taking this fight on short notice but he looks great right now. He’s a guy who always stays ready. I’m fucking stoked for this fight and I believe in the man down under to shock the world.
The pick: Volk ML (1u); Volk +5.5 point spread (2u); Volk and over 3.5 rounds (0.5u)
Thank you all for reading, I appreciate the support. As always follow me on Twitter @rustyHHsports
This is an article written by Rusty
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