Rusty’s Week One NFL Sports Betting Picks

This is an article written by Rusty

The 104th season of the NFL is officially underway starting Thursday September 7th, down in Kansas City.

Good luck to everyone this year as we spend our Sunday’s sweating over each and every bet and trying to do the mental math on whether or not we can pay rent this month.

In case you live under a rock and missed my last bunch of articles, my name is Rusty (@rustyHHsports) and I’m a new writer this year with Happy Hour Sports.

Remember, never trust the math nerds. Only ever trust random Twitter sources with less than 30 followers. HH Sports country, let’s rideeeeeeee.

Given that it is week 1, I will be betting on every game. I would have to imagine the science and stats say to NOT do that since these games can be so unpredictable. But it’s fun and I love it so I do it. I’ll make sure to clarify my units for each game. My 1 unit and higher bets are my official #RustysPicks.

Thursday night Football – Sports Betting Picks for NFL 2023-24 Week 1

Lions (+6.5) @ Chiefs
O/U 53.5

Starting off the NFL season we have the Super Bowl Champion Chiefs hosting Dan Campbell and the Lions. I personally am very excited for this game. This game should be an absolute shootout which is why I’m definitely taking the over. Never look at what the actual number is. If it sounds like two teams that go over, then you bet the over.

I’m also taking the lions and buying the half point to make it +7 (-120). Should be a close game and a high scoring affair.

Picks: Lions +7 (1u) ; o53.5 (0.5u)

Sunday NFL Games – Sports Betting Picks for Sunday Week 1 (September 10, 2023 )

Bengals Browns WEEK 1 NFL 23′-24′

Bengals (-1.5) @ Browns
O/u 47.5

This line makes absolutely 0 sense to my pea sized brain. How are Joey B and the Bengals only 1.5 point favorites against the massage specialist and the Browns. All signs point towards Joey B playing Week 1. IF for some reason he’s not playing (this article will have already been published) I’ll probably take the under. But assuming he plays it’s one of my favorite bets of the week.

Pick: Just to be safe I’m taking the ML @ -122 (1.5u)

Bucs Vikings WEEK 1 NFL 23′-24′

Buccaneers (+6) @ Vikings
O/u 45.5

I think the Vikings are wildly overrated here. They were fairly garbage last year, all things considered. The Bucs have a decent defense and yes although it’s Baker Mayfield I’m confident they can keep it within 6 points.

Pick: Bucs +6 (0.5u)

Panthers Falcons WEEK 1 NFL 23′-24′

Panthers (+3.5) @ Falcons
O/u 39.5

Rookie Bryce Young marches into HotLanta to take on Desmon Ridder and the falcons. My first pick is pretty gross, but I’m actually going over here. The falcons defense is horrific and the panthers defense is very middle of the pack. You have two young, athletic QBs going head to head who will certainly make lots of mistakes BUT I trust them enough to put 40 points on the board. Now, if they were playing a top 5 defense I would never make this pick. But given the circumstances I’m taking it.

I’m also going to take the Falcons – 3.5. All around just more talented.

Picks: O39.5 (0.5u) ; Falcons -3.5 (0.5u)

Jags Colts WEEK 1 NFL 23′-24′

Jaguars (-4.5) @ Colts
O/u 45.5

A mighty battle in the AFC South brings us Jags Colts on opening weekend. I truly hate the Jags this year. I don’t understand the hype. I hate sunshine and his pretty little hair. Just hate all of them. The Colts on the other hand have so many question marks who knows what to do with them. I do like Anthony Richardson but who knows how he’ll convert into the NFL. Also Lord knows what’s going on with Jonathan Taylor. Give me the over. This feels like a high scoring slop fest. I’m also going to be looking for some Anthony Richardson rushing props.

Pick: O45.5 (0.5)

‘Niners Steelers WEEK 1 NFL 23′-24’

49ers (-2.5) @ Steelers
O/u 40.5

GIVE ME BIG COCK BROCK AND THE CREW. 49ers -2.5. Love it.

I do think the Steelers are a bit underrated this year but Kyle Shanahan with a full off-season to prepare? I don’t see a world in which the 49ers don’t win and cover here.

Pick: 49ers -2.5 (1.5u)

Cards v. That Washington D.C. Team WEEK 1 NFL 23′-24′

Cardinals +7 @ Commanders
O/u 39

Gross. Disgusting. Avoid. Hammer the under. Set and forget don’t even look at this game.

Pick: U39 (1u)

Tenn. Vs. NOLA WEEK 1 NFL 23′-24′

Titans +3 @ Saints

If you’ve read any of my previous articles you know I’m high on the Titans this year. They’re super talented and have a great head coach. Do you really believe Derek Carr is all the sudden going to be dramatically better in NOLA ? No shot. Give me the Titans. HAMMER IT

Pick: Titans +3 (1.5u)

Texans Ravens WEEK 1 NFL 23′-24′

Texans +9.5 @ Ravens
O/u 44

This is a really interesting matchup to me for gambling purposes. I do like the Ravens this year but don’t scoff at the Texans. I might only be saying this because I love the addition of Demeco Ryans. I will say the Texans did also add a lot of weapons on defense. Now, I think the ravens win this game, but I do think 9.5/10 points is a lot. IF you can get it at +10 without sacrificing too much $$ value then I’m taking them (at the time of this writing it’s -120). If you can’t then fuck it take like a Texans Over teaser or something fun.

Pick: Texans +10 (1u)

Green Bay vs. DA BEAARS! (Post Ditka) WEEK 1 NFL 23′-24′

Packers +1.5 @ Bears
O/u 43.5

Season opener for my boys. The start of the Justin Fields MVP campaign. This is my personal favorite play of the week. I will be *responsibly* hammering the fuck out of the bears ML. Take at your own risk

Pick: Bears ML (3u)

Eagles v. Patriots NFL Week 1 Sports Betting Picks for 23′-24′ Season

Eagles -4.5 @ Patriots
O/u 44.5

The Super Bowl losers head up to New England to take on mighty Mac and the Patriots. As much as it grosses me out to say this I think the eagles are the best play here. They’re just substantially better in all 3 aspects of the game.

Pick: Eagles -4.5 (0.5u)

Rams v. Seahawks NFL Week 1 Sports Betting Picks for 23′-24′ Season

Rams +4.5 @ Seahawks
O/u 47

The Rams are absolute covering machines against the Seahawks. I’m not necessarily overly confident in either team here but I’m gonna roll with the great vibes and take the rams to cover

Pick: Rams +4.5 (0.5u)

Raiders Broncos NFL Week 1 Sports Betting Picks for 23′-24′ Season

Raiders +4 @ Broncos
O/u 44.5

I’m ready to get hurt again. I bought into the Broncos last off-season and they were clearly awful. It was disgusting to watch and hard to even call it football. The main difference this year is Sean Payton. An absolute legend. I believe Sean Payton has what it takes to make this team an actual threat. I certainly don’t think Himmy Garoppolo has what it takes to cover, let alone win on the road here. Gimme the broncos

Pick: Broncos -4 (0.5u)

Dolphins +3 @ Chargers
O/u 51

If you’ve read my previous articles you know I’m big on the dolphins this year. As long as Tua can remain healthy they should be a very legit threat this year for a playoff run. I also do like the chargers but I envision this being a very close, high scoring game. I’ll be taking dolphins and the over

Pick: Dolphins +3 (1u); O51 (0.5u)

SNF Betting Pick – Week 1 NFL

Cowboys -3 @ Giants
O/u 46.5

I think this game is set up to be the best game of the week. I’m curious to see how this one plays out. I’m personally giving the edge to the Boys down in Dallas. I’ll probably take the ML just for a little more security on the pick.

Pick: Cowboys ML (1u)

Monday Night Football Week 1 NFL – Sports Betting NFL picks

Bills -2.5 @ Jets
O/u 46

At this point you know my stance on both of these teams. I love both of them. I have futures on both of them. I’m bricked up for this game. I’m going to be picking the Bills ML solely because I think it will take a few weeks for the Jets to really get rolling on offense. I’m taking the ML to not sweat a late backdoor cover , I think this game will be incredibly close but I give it to the Bills. I’m also taking u46. Both of these offenses are electric BUT the jets defense is stellar and as I mentioned earlier I think it will take a few weeks for the jets offense to get going.

Picks: Bills ML (1u); U46 (0.5u)

Rusty’s official picks (Official Sports Beting Picks for Week 1 NFL 23′-24′)

Lions +7
Bengals ML
49ers -2.5
Cardinals Commanders u39
Titans +3
Texans +10
Bears ML
Dolphins +3
Cowboys ML
Bills ML

Teaser: Titans +9/ Dolphins +9
Primteime parlay: cowboys ML/ bills ML