With the MLB trade deadline coming up, some of the game’s biggest names are going to be on the move in what could be one of the most explosive deadlines in recent memory. By far the biggest of those names would be Shohei Ohtani, the once in a generation do-it-all Angels star. He’s finally in the last year of his contract, and the team has no delusions that they can compete this year, or retain Ohtani in the offseason- so it’s time to get a return rather than letting him walk for nothing. The only question is where he’ll go. Any contender would be immediately transformed by Ohtani, so they’ll all enter the sweepstakes- let’s look at the cases for a few major suitors.
New York Yankees
Why it could happen:
The Yankees have been reported as the “most motivated” organization when it comes to getting this deal done. They probably have the firepower to do it, with a few highly rated prospects in redundant roles, for instance the shortstop trio of Anthony Volpe, Oswald Peraza, and Trey Sweeney. And in a lot of ways, New York is a great landing place for Shohei. He’s the biggest star who deserves the brightest lights, and as he showed in the World Baseball Classic, he’d shine underneath them. It also doesn’t hurt that given the infamous Short Porch in right field of Yankee Stadium, the lefty Ohtani could push for 60 homers in a year- hell, he’s already doing it anyways.
Why it could not happen:
Ohtani, like many Japanese-born stars before him, might prefer to be on the West Coast, which the Yankees of course simply cannot offer him. It’s also worth wondering if the Yankees can afford to keep him beyond this season, with some insane payroll obligations in the years to come including mega-deals for Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. Of course a trade would only secure Ohtani’s services through October, but a true rental is probably not worth the prospects a team would have to sacrifice to make this move happen; whoever makes this move probably will at least hope to have a good chance to sign Ohtani over the winter.
In terms of just this season, the Yankees are probably not good enough to justify this buy. Yes it’s likely that they get into the playoffs, and yes their record is a bit depressed by a hyper-competitive AL East, but it’s probably not their year to win a ring, with or without Shohei. As I mentioned earlier, he’s a bona fide superstar, and it’s also worth wondering if after spending the beginning of his career with Mike Trout, he’d want to continue to share the spotlight, this time with Judge. As you can probably tell from the relative length of this section compared to the above, I don’t think this deal is going to happen, but most sportsbooks have the Yanks as the favorite or at least second-favorite to be rostering Ohtani after the deadline, so it’s worth keeping an eye on.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Why it could happen:
This team is literally always a contender, which would be a welcome change for Ohtani, who has never seen postseason baseball. In a similar vein, these Dodgers have not shied away from doing what needs to be done to bring in stars. They’ve done this via free agency much more than through in-season trades, but as I mentioned above, a huge part of this deal will be the eventual sweepstakes winner’s confidence that they can sign him in the offseason, so I’d consider this a pre-free agency of sorts.
If Ohtani enjoys the lifestyle in LA, but doesn’t want to keep playing for an awful team, this would be a particularly good fit as he could theoretically make this “move” without even getting a new apartment. Lastly, the Dodgers might be the most- prepared team to get this done in terms of resources, as they have a deep enough farm to bring him in, and plenty of money to keep him around.
Why it could not happen:
Frankly, this year might not be the year for LA to go all-in. They don’t look like the typical Dodgers superteam we’ve come to recognize in many recent seasons, which is a double edged sword. Obviously none of those teams actually won the World Series, save for the absolute joke that was the 2020 MLB season, so it might not be too problematic that this year’s squad looks different, but on a simpler level, it’s not great that they look even worse than the groups that came up short.
They might be the one team who could feel good about snagging him in free agency after another team gets him at the deadline, as they have a surprisingly low amount of major deals on the books. Like the Yankees, the Dodgers are listed as one of the top two favorites to get Ohtani, so this whole situation definitely bears a lot of attention going forward.
Seattle Mariners
Why it could happen:
As a baseball kid in the 2000s, so many of my friends and teammates idolized Ichiro Suzuki. In Japan, the fervor around the legendary contact hitter was only stronger, and Ohtani is no exception; he’s made it clear that Ichiro is a hero of his. Following his legacy would probably fulfill a dream of sorts for Ohtani, and the Seattle fanbase would positively erupt if they once again snagged the biggest Japanese superstar. And then of course, there’s this video, which isn’t conclusive in any way, but certainly isn’t bad for Seattle. It’s a fanbase who really wants the player, and just had a special opportunity to make that clear to him throughout the All Star festivities in Seattle, an opportunity with which they did an outstanding job.
Why it could not happen:
Seattle is simply not a huge-market team like the Dodgers, Yankees, or a few others. This impacts their financial ability to lock Ohtani up for the long term, and thus their willingness to cash in a ton of prospects to rent him for the rest of 2023. It also somewhat diminishes the allure for a player like Ohtani who deserves all eyes on him. It’s also worth noting that they’re just a bit too far from a playoff spot to really justify an all-in approach at this deadline, and I’m not even sure the Angels would be willing to deal him within the division, given the risk of him simply re-signing wherever he ends up. Still, this pairing has gained a ton of momentum and buzz in recent weeks, so I wouldn’t be too shocked if it’s in the cards.
San Francisco Giants
Why it could happen:
If you want to talk about baseball blue bloods on the West Coast, the Giants have to be a part- if not the very centerpiece- of that discussion. It wouldn’t be quite as close as the Dodgers, but the overall adjustment moving from Anaheim to San Francisco wouldn’t be particularly insane. This team is generally willing to spend money and have a good bit of room to do so without too many major deals on the books, and have a bunch of cash burning a hole in their pocket after they were ready to allocate nearly 400 million dollars to Aaron Judge, who chose to remain in New York for some reason. This squad is also surging in an increasingly-fascinating NL West race, and Ohtani would very plausibly be enough to put them ahead of the pack.
Why it could not happen:
They’re really not being viewed as one of the very top suitors, with just +1200 odds to make this happen they’re placed behind about 5 trade competitors and even the Angels. They don’t have a very deep farm, so they’d pretty much have to decimate what they do have to make this trade. That might not be worth it, since even if they do win the West, they frankly are probably not THAT close to winning the World Series, so they could be in a position where they’ve dumped their entire prospect base just to get bounced in the NLDS. With their financial and minor league situations, the way to go could be trying to snag him over the winter after he’s been traded elsewhere, although I tend to believe that whoever trades for him is going to do everything in their power to get an extension done.
Tampa Bay Rays
Why it could happen:
If the Rays are ever going to go all-in to win their first World Series, now would be a pretty good time. They’re in first place in the uber-competitive AL East, and currently own the top seed in the entire American League, which is as wide-open as it’s been since the beginning of the Astros’ reign. The Yankees look awful, eliminating their usual biggest in-division threat, so this could really be the year. The thing is, Tampa is slumping a bit and has seen their East lead shrink to just a game, so reinforcements wouldn’t hurt, and Ohtani would likely do just the trick. If Ohtani wants to be considered the greatest of all time, and he has a real chance to be thought of as exactly that, winning a franchise their first-ever ring would be a huge feather in his cap, an accomplishment that would never be forgotten.
Why it could not happen:
Frankly, I’m stunned they’re viewed as a serious contender in this race, with the third-best odds on some books, just behind the Yanks and Dodgers. This team doesn’t spend money, period. They have the third-lowest payroll in the league, and if they want to retain Ohtani, they’d have to pay him nearly as much as the rest of the team combined, which would not click well with the way they like to operate. They do have one of the best farm systems in the league so I’m sure the Angels would love to do business with them. But if they tear it apart for a player they can’t sign, they’d be left with no superstar, and without the thing that currently makes them special, an outstanding prospect pipeline.
My prediction:
The Dodgers. It makes too much sense to not happen. This team always gets what they want, except for a World Series title that actually counts on this side of the Bush administration (the first one). As I’ve said over and over, internal confidence in the ability to retain Ohtani over his impending free agency is likely an enormous part of a team deciding to get this deal done. It’s pretty clear that nobody could be more confident in re-signing him in free agency than the Dodgers, who generally have very strong winters. He can keep everything he enjoys about LA but escape the Angels, and stay on the West Coast, positioned well the massive Japanese fanbase. There’s no nothing close to a guarantee here, and this saga won’t truly be over until he puts pen to paper on what will surely be the biggest contract in American sports history, but I for one am fascinated and a bit nervous to see how it all plays out.
