SUPER BOWL BEST BETS AND ANALYSIS: Chiefs or 49ers?

SUPER BOWL BEST BETS AND ANALYSIS: Chiefs or 49ers?

Super Bowl Sunday is here! After an incredible season, we have the most anticipated game in the United States in front of us. First off, I would like to thank every reader who has come to the website and shown any type of support to us – it means a lot. We have some ambitious plans over the offseason to come back even bigger next year.

As for the football, I have become more and more excited about this matchup over the past two weeks. The 2020 rematch of the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs is exactly what the media wanted. The storylines are amazing with the whole Taylor Swift narrative as well as Mahomes throwing himself into the GOAT conversation before he turns 30. So, what can we expect – especially from a betting angle?

Since it is the Super Bowl, this will be slightly different than my normal articles. I will provide the information I usually do, but I am going to add a significant discussion on the game – as well as trends that will be useful. If you have not had a chance to listen to this week’s episode of Sharpen the Public, you better get to it quickly!

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Regular Season NFL Betting Trends

We have made it through the entire NFL Regular Season and to the SUPER BOWL. Check out the full recap article and many other NFL pieces at our NFL BETTING PICKS. Additionally, the recent podcasts always break down the updates to the trends. If you missed that, here they are:

  • Public Betting Percentage: 147-117 ATS (56%)
  • Money Betting Percentage: 141-123 ATS (53%)
  • Sharp Differential: 133-131 ATS (50%)
  • Public on Over: 71-83 (46%)
  • Money on Over: 48-54 (47%)
  • Sharp Diff. on Over: 32-28 (53%)
  • Public on Under: 60-50 (54%)
  • Money on Under: 88-75 (54%)
  • Sharp Diff on Under: 114-90 (56%)

Here are the trends for the Current Playoffs:

  • Public Betting Percentage: 3-9 ATS
  • Money Betting Percentage: 5-7 ATS
  • Sharp Differential: 6-4 ATS
  • Public on Over: 6-3
  • Money on Over: 4-2
  • Sharp Diff. on Over: 4-1
  • Public on Under: 2-1
  • Money on Under: 4-3
  • Sharp Diff on Under: 4-2

Season Trends Influencing the Super Bowl

I’ve made it a point over the entire year how well the public has performed in 2023. However, what may be even more interesting is how well they have done when there are more than 60% of the tickets on a side. The public went 84-59 (59%) when the teams are what I call an actually public side. Below 60%, games feel like either team could be the public side (depending on the number), but actual public teams have fared incredibly this year. Specifically between 60%-70%, those teams are 59-37. This means that above 70%, teams are 25-22, which is still far better than anyone would have predicted to start the year. This is one of the reasons I love bringing this information to everyone. Here is the public’s side for the Super Bowl:

  • Chiefs +2

Now we know the money is meant to be one of the metrics that performs well all season. To start the year, any team that had greater than 50% of the money percentage had covered about 50% of the time. Over the last 8 weeks (including playoffs), the money percentage has picked up pace and went 63-49, covering at a 60% rate to bring their season-long record to 141-123, and closer to what it was to end last year. Here is the team with the money and sharp differential today:

  • Chiefs +2

Switching to totals:

Public on Over (Last 8 Weeks): 37-31

Money on Over (Last 8 Weeks): 27-18

Sharp Diff. on Over (Last 8 Weeks): 20-10 

A point I made during the midpoint of the season was that all of our metrics (public, money, and sharp diff.) would likely bounce back to finish out the year as we saw overs come back into the fold. Additionally, this was something we saw last year, so we could use that to our advantage in 2023. I did not think it would be as dominant as you see above. People are reading totals well. Here is the breakdown for the Total today:

  • Chiefs/Niners (47.5)
  • 49% of Bets on the OVER
  • 66% of Money on the UNDER
  • 15% Sharp Differential to the UNDER

Note that I am writing this around Noon on Sunday, so as bets come in these percentages will change. Although, they should remain relatively close to what they are now. Sometimes I will have late plays because I take public trends into account and those constantly update, so follow me @DeejHHSports on twitter to see those picks. Before we get into the picks I will plug the website one last time, thanks for checking us out! We are a small sports brand that is slowly growing. We provide daily and weekly content around the sports we love, so please consider sticking around and subscribing!

Super Bowl NFL Best Bets and Analysis

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers (-1.5), Total 47.5

Which Side to Back in the Super Bowl

One of the hardest questions to answer every year, is which team will win the Super Bowl? Had you made the pick before the season, I am sure the 49ers would have been at the top of most people’s lists. The Chiefs would have been less likely, in my opinion, having won last year’s big game. On February 11th, we sit with the most anticipated matchup in US sports in front of us, but the question remains – who will win the Super Bowl? To figure this out, we must focus heavily on the teams in the big game.

The Chiefs have had a mediocre season in comparison to what they are used to. 11 wins to their name, but no one really felt they were the dominant team we were used to seeing from Kansas City. However, in the playoffs, they have turned everything up a notch. They have had a difficult road to the Super Bowl, beating up on the big bad wolves of the AFC – the Dolphins, Bills, and  Ravens. We can attribute a lot of their impressive performances to big names like Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, but their defense is what has gotten them here.

Over the course of the season, the Chiefs defense allowed only 17.3 ppg, less than the 17.5 ppg the 49ers allowed all season and the second-best number in the NFL. Even more surprisingly, the Chiefs are 18-2 to the second half under – indicating that once teams get out of their game-scripted plays and Steve Spagnuolo’s defense makes some adjustments – there is little teams have done to overcome the Chiefs. Now, enter the 49ers who have struggled against the defenses of the Lions and Packers in the playoffs, and my question becomes, can the 49ers overcome the Chief’s defense?

The counterargument to the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl because of their defense is the 49ers offense has proven to be incredibly efficient and explosive all season. The names do the talking – Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Trent Williams – the list goes on. This 49ers offense came second in yards per game this season, 4th in passing yards, 3rd in rush yards, and tied for the most touchdowns in the NFL. So, what can the Chief’s defense do against the best teams in football? Thankfully, they have already proven to us they can hold anyone to under 20 points. The Dolphins and Ravens did effectively nothing to score against the Chiefs, and the quarterback with the most touchdowns in the NFL (Josh Allen) only put up 24 points against them. And, to make matters worse, the Chiefs have someone that no one else in football has, Patrick Mahomes.

Patrick Mahomes is the ultimate X-factor, and that does not change just because this is the Super Bowl. He ranks top 3 in countless playoff stats already and performs better as an underdog than anyone. 10-1-1 as an underdog, with 9 straight-up wins, and he is 17-3 against the spread whenever he is less than a -2.5 favorite. Aside from the numbers, I think him and Andy Reid are more than capable of cooking up a winning game plan against this Niners team. Albeit, they may only need to score 20 points to win – if their defense stays hot. Add to that a depreciating Niners defense that thrives when they can bring pressure with their front 4 – and Mahomes is the perfect counteragent.

The hotter team will win the Super Bowl, and the Chiefs are clearly that. They beat 3 of the most difficult teams to beat in football, while the Niners scraped by the Packers and the Lions. I think the game plan will turn to Brock Purdy too quickly after Mahomes and the Chief’s scripted plays get them ahead early. Purdy will not be ready to handle the pressure, and the Chiefs will win back-to-back Super Bowls. As a longshot, I also like Pacheco to win MVP because I think the Chiefs focus heavily on the ground game. I didn’t talk much about the Niners’ defense, but in the playoffs, they have played horribly against the run – allowing almost 6 yards per carry. The Chiefs will know that, and Pacheco will go off.

The Play:  Chiefs +2 2u and Moneyline 1u

How to Bet the Total in the Super Bowl

As for the total, there is no question which side we like here at Happy Hour Sports. Taking the under is something I love to do, as it is far more profitable every year than backing overs. People like points, so betting against that usually means you have a good chance of being right. Over the last 8 Super Bowls with totals in the 40s, the under is 6-2. There are countless trends backing the under in recent Super Bowls (except for last year) as well.

Specifically looking at the teams, the Chiefs were 14-6 to the under this year, including playoffs, and 18-2 to the under in the second half – that’s insane. The 49ers were 7-9-1 to the under in the regular season but averaged less than 18 points per game allowed all season. The Super Bowl has gone under in 4 of the last 5, and seeing a defense quite like the one of the Chiefs and Niners is not common.

This game will be won on the ground. The Chief’s defense is too good for the explosiveness of the 49ers to come out all game, and both teams are going to focus heavily on the run as they have all season long. Games with a lot of running lead to a lot of time coming off the clock quickly, and long drives – pointing us to the under.

I will touch the public’s thought process in one of the later sections, but the public is on the over and the money is on the Under. The Total only moved down at open, and there’s always reason to back an under in a Chiefs game – take the Under.

The Play:  Under 47.5 and the Second Half Under 23.5

Player Props to Bet in the Super Bowl

Player props are some of the most fun ways to bet the Super Bowl. Countless options are in front of you, so how can we narrow down the board? Finding value in player props can be difficult, but I think there are a few ones that are eye opening – as well as a few to play just for fun during the Big Game.

I narrow down the players by thinking about how I believe each team will try to win the game. The Chiefs, I think, will try to win by taking significant advantage of the depreciating run defense of the Niners. The 49ers allowed 4.1 yards per carry in the regular season and nearly 6 yards per carry in the postseason. Both Aaron Jones and the RBs of the Lions had phenomenal games against this unit, so Pacheco should have some great opportunities to stand out. Pacheco has surpassed this number in his last 5 games, so I love his over. Ideally, the Niners should have some sort of game plan to account for Pacheco, but their rushing defensive woes outweigh that though, in my opinion.

In addition to winning the game on the ground, I think the 49ers will try to do the same – effeectiely limiting the amount of times Purdy throws the ball. I also very much believe in this Chiefs defense, so Purdy’s under-passing yards stick out to me. While I think he has done his job, I am not sure he is the man for the moment. I think he is going to underperform today, in addition to getting limited reps with a heavy dose of McCaffrey. Do I think the Niners can win with Purdy? Yes. But, this line is too high. He barely surpassed this total against the Lions and Packers, and they scored 30+ points against the Lions. The Chief’s defense will not allow more than 250 yards in the air.

Sticking with the Niners, though, Deebo is a core player in this offense. He has scored 12 times this season, despite missing 2 games – showing his versatility of getting in the endzone. So, since this line is close to a number it hasn’t been at all season, I like Deebo to score today as well. McCaffery is the obvious choice, but I am not paying -220 juice to get a TD scorer. There is much more value on Deebo at +150 with his ability to do it on the ground or in the air. The Niners will need to have a heavy dose of Deebo if they want to win today.

As for some fun ones, I mentioned why I thought Pacheco could win MVP already. If he scores twice, there is a strong case for him – especially since Mahomes cannot win it every time he wins the Super Bowl (Brady went 4/6 with the Patriots).

Lastly, a staple for me when it comes tot the Super Bowl is a fullback to score a touchdown. Every year since I started going to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl, I have made this play – and it has come very close a few times. Juszczyk scored the second TD in the 2020 Super Bowl, and James Devlin came within inches in the 2019 Super Bowl, so I have to play it again. Juszczyk is a nice +4900 right now, and I think he could do it if they get the ball first.

The Plays: 

  • Brock Purdy u249.5 Pass Yards -110
  • Deebo Samuel ATD +150
  • Isiah Pacheco o66.5 Rush Yds
  • Isiah Pacheco MVP +2500
  • Kyle Juszczyk First TD +5000
How the Public is Betting the Super Bowl

The staple for me is to talk about the public betting trends when it comes to the NFL. As of my time of writing this, the number is 2 with 66% of the tickets on the Chiefs and 74% of the Money on the Chiefs as well. The total has stayed steady at 47.5, with 49% of bets on the over, and 65% of money on the under. We have 1.5 million bets placed as well, so we are going to destroy last years numbers.

Clearly, the public loves the Chiefs in this one. The Mahomes narrative is too strong, as he has proven time and time again that betting against him as an underdog is a bad idea. I am sure the Taylor Swift thing factors in too, but I am going to focus on what I can speak to – and that is the football.

The line opened briefly at +3 points and was instantly bet down to +2.5 with Chiefs love. Over the first couple of days, the number trickled down to about 1 point before stabilizing closer to 2. We have had a little back and forth over the last week, but as of right now, I am seeing 1.5s and 2s everywhere. The significance of the number is important because 2 can be a key number, so I love that I can get Chiefs at 2.

The public has had a brutal postseason at 3-9 ATS, after having such a strong regular season. So, despite the public being on the Chiefs here, I don’t hate it. People will consistently bring up the fade the public narrative, but that is exactly what I am trying to disprove with the content I produce. It didn’t work throughout the regular season, so why should fading the public be right in the Super Bowl?

This game clearly has more bets than every regular season game, so the trends we focus are not as indicative as they are throughout the season. However, the points still stand – more often than you think, the public gets it right.

Thanks for reading! If you guys like what you see or have any comments/critiques, please let me know on Twitter, I appreciate all feedback. Please also follow the podcast and share the website! I will see you on Tuesday with another recap episode of Sharpen the Public.

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This is an article written by DJ Bianco

DJ Bianco Author for Happy Hour Sports at the Colosseum in Rome

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