UFC 291 Rusty’s Picks

This is an article written by Rusty

Alrighty everyone welcome back to another blog of Rusty’s picks (follow me on Twitter @RustyHHsports)

If you didn’t get a chance to see my introductory blog of Super Bowl Futures, check it out to get a further intro into your good o’l pal Rusty. If you’re too lazy to go click there the TL;DR is, I’m not a smart guy. Just your friendly neighborhood degenerate. Please check out the rest of the guy’s articles for actually smart picks. Majority of my picks are going to be vibes based.

For this one we have arguably the UFC card of the year in Salt Lake City for UFC 291.

Enter obligatory warning here: *this is not real betting advice. Don’t take anything I say seriously. Yes I will be taking these picks but if you want smart picks check out the other guys. This is all satirical, please don’t listen to me. There’s a good reason I’ve had to reset my action network picks every few months. *

Unlike the pro gamblers, I don’t just pick 3-4 bets and go all in on the best ones. When I bet UFC cards, I like to bet every single fight. As a fan, that is the most fun way for me to watch a card. Also for the record, I will try to include some more detail on the earlier fights where most people don’t know any of the fighters.

What I usually do is bet every fight for at least a half unit for fun, and then I will actually bet my favorites bets for 1-3 units. Could you imagine not betting on every single fight? Not me. I’ll make sure to clarify what my picks are as I’m writing them.

Lastly, if you’re anything like me when I used to visit to these gambling sites, you’re not going to read all the garbage I spewed below and you just want the picks. Perfect, because Rusty gets you. Rusty understands you. Just scroll to the bottom and you’ll see my full list of picks.

*odds may have changed from the time of writing

Best Bets for UFC 291 Early Prelims

Fight 1: Miranda Maverick vs Priscila Cachoeira.
The first fight on the card is a classic early prelim opener. Two unranked women’s flyweights. Yawn. Miranda is coming in at 13-5 off a decision loss. Miranda is the grappler here in this matchup having 7 of her wins by submission, and 6 finishes in the first round. She’s the favorite of the matchup -295.

On the other side we have Priscila Cachoeira coming in on a 2 fight win streak and a 12-4 record. She has 7 wins by knockout and 4 first round finishes. She’s the underdog here at +235

I’m gonna be honest here this probably won’t be too exciting of a fight. I imagine Miranda is going shoot takedowns and Priscila is going to be miserable at defending them.

The smart bet would likely be Miranda by sub *

BUT given that these unranked women’s fights really go either way I’m planning on betting Priscila to win by ko +500 simply because she does have 7 ko wins and that would be more exciting to cheer for. With odds that big for a basically coin toss fight (sorry to unranked woman’s fighters it’s just the truth) let’s just hope for one great power shot by Priscilla that puts Miranda to sleep. Lastly, let’s not forget Miranda took this fight on short notice which I feel gives another edge to Priscilla.
Rusty’s pick: Priscila by ko +500 (0.5u)
Fight 2: Matthew Semelsberger vs Uros Medic
This fight should be a very exciting matchup. Semelsberger is the favorite at -205 and Uros the underdog at +175.

Semelsberger is 1-2 in his last 3 fights. He comes from a wrestling background but still has great striking and power.

On the other side of the octagon we have Uros Medic the 8-1 Serbian with 6 knockout and 2 submissions. This man has never made it past the 2nd round in his career. This guy is legit, and has the making to be an exciting UFC superstar (I have no idea what I’m talking about but he’s fun to watch)

Medic should bring the pressure early which might force Semelsberger to take a shot but Medic has only been taken down once in his UFC career. I believe in Medic’s ability to bring the heat, force mistakes by the opponent and get an early finish.

I LOVEEE Medic at +175 and also like fight to not start round 3: No -135. I’m also going sprinkle Medic by ko since I’m a degenerate. I would also consider doing a same game parlay that consists of Medic ML; U2.5; O1+ knockdowns and method of victory KO/ TKO.

I would guess that the actual gambling experts would say don’t take those individual bets and a SGP but YOLO.
Rusty’s official pick: Medic ML +175 (1u)

Fight 3: CJ Vergara vs Vinicius Salvador
Another banger on the early prelims. Two strikers going head to head BANGIN IT OUT IN SALT LAKE (sorry Mormons no soaking here).

CJ is the favorite -150 and Vergara the dog +120.

CJ is 11-4-1 with 7 wins by knockout and on a 1 fight win streak. The dog Vinicius comes in at 14-5 with 13 KOs and 9 first round finishes.

I’m fairly torn here. I have a hard time not taking the underdog here given all the KOs and first round finishes. But CJ comes from the US of A. But on the other hand Vinicius is a bad ass name.

Give me Vinicius ML here. Also taking finish by KO/TKO almost as a hedge (idk is that considered a hedge? Whatever) if CJ lands a good shot. Either way this fight is not going to a decision, and with that being said it certainly won’t be by a submission so take the better odds.
Rusty’s pick: Vinicius ML (0.5u), and exact method of victory – KO/TKO/DQ -165 (1u)
Best Bets for UFC 291 Prelims

Fight #4: Jake Matthews vs Darius Flowers
The underdog Darius Flowers +200 comes into this fight as a late replacement against the favorite Jake Matthews -240.

Here’s all you need to know: Darius flowers has 8 kos and 7 in the first round. Most importantly he failed a drug test last year for SARMS.

GIVE ME THE SEMI ROIDED OUT SARMS GOBLIN BOMBER ML

(please ignore that it’s his debut just have some fun)
Rusty’s pick: Darius Flowers ML +200 (0.5u) and double chance Matthews sub or Darius Ko -135 (1u)
Fight #5: Roman Kopylov vs Claudio Ribeiro
This fight is a very interesting matchup that I’m excited to see. The Russian is the favorite -210 vs Ko artist +170

Roman coming off 2 wins has fought some very impressive opponents in the UFC and definitely has the more impressive schedule of opponents in comparison to Claudio. He has a sambo background and has solid defense.

Across the octagon Claudio is a KO bomber with 11 wins and 11 kos, 8 of those coming in the first round.

This fight could really go either way. I do like this fight to end inside the distance. One aspect of this card is the fact that it is in Salt Lake City, which as we saw last year affected a lot of fighter’s cardio. I think if Roman can survive the first round KO, I like him to wear down Claudio and finish him in the 2nd or 3rd. One of the reasons I like inside the distance is if I’m wrong about that prediction on Roman with the 2nd or 3rd round finish it’ll almost be definitely due to a Claudio Ko.
Rusty’s pick: fight ends ITD -200 (1u); Roman ML -210 (0.5u); Sprinkle Roman tko round 2 +500 (0.25u) and Roman tko round 3 +900 (0.25U)
Fight #6: Derrick Lewis vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
This doesn’t need a write up. I don’t care the black beast has lost 3 straight. 21 wins by knockout is enough for me. A legend, one of my all time favorite fighters. Also the dude has a 6 pack now.
Rusty’s pick: Derrick Lewis ML +185 (1u) ; Derrick Lewis KO +240 (0.5u), parlay Derrick Lewis by KO and U1.5 rounds +300 (0.5u)
Fight #7: Gabriel Bonfim vs Trevin Giles
This is another very intriguing fight for me on the card. The favorite, Bonfim -325, comes into the fight with a perfect 14-0 record, 11 submissions and 3 knockouts with a perfect 100% finish rate. The 25 year old is a submission specialist and is a hype train for the ufc.

On the contrary, the underdog Giles is 16-4 with 6 knockouts, 5 submissions and 3 decision wins. The biggest difference between the two is the level of competition and experience. Bonfim only has 1 UFC fight. Trevin has 12 UFC fights including fights against Morales, Du plessis, Dolidze, and more.

I certainly think Bonfim has massive potential in the UFC, and I think he has the better chance to win this fight by submission here. Bonfim by submission is a totally fair and smart bet to make here.

I will counter though with experience matters. Giles has fought some absolute studs and we can’t discount that. If you put a gun to my head and pick who wins the fight I’d say Bonfim. But purely given the odds they’re giving Giles and his experience against top ufc fighters I’m going with Giles ML.

Rusty’s pick: Giles ML +270 (0.5u), double chance Bonfim submission or Giles to win by decision -175 (0.5u)
Best Bets for UFC 291 Main Card

Fight #8: Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Holland
On this card we have a classic striker vs grappler matchup with the fan favorite Kevin Holland (also the betting favorite – 145) and the underdog Michael Chiesa +125.

Chiesa is coming off 2 losses , the last being Sean Brady in 2021. That long of a layoff is concerning to fans and bettors which is completely fair. BUT it’s important to remember Chiesa has a great ground game and has a serious advantage there.

Kevin Holland is coming off a KO win back in April and is ready to make a statement win against Michael Chiesa. Kevin certainly has the striking advantage and if he’s able to keep the fight standing should win. So it’s fairly understandable picking Kevin Holland by TKO.

I’m personally going with Michael Chiesa. I think he’s gonna be a “crotch sniffer” as Jorge masvidal would say, and simply take Kevin down and grind him out on the ground.
Rusty’s pick: Michael Chiesa ML (2u)
Also consider Michael Chiesa ML and o1.5 rounds parlay for +195 odds (0.5u)
Fight #9: Tony Ferguson vs Bobby Green
This is kinda a gross fight and makes me a little sad. I love Tony Ferguson, one of the goats of the sport. Unfortunately he’s on a 5 fight losing streak (in his defense his losses have come from Gaethje, Oliveria, Dariush, Chandler and Nate Diaz). This includes a wicked KO loss to Michael Chandler that will likely lead him to never speaking English after he retires.

On the flip side you have Bobby Green who is also on a bit of a slide. Losing two straight and followed by a no contest.

I simply don’t understand how they can make Bobby Green such a massive favorite at -400. I get why he’s favored, he’s a bit fresher and has less damage over the last couple years but this line makes 0 sense to me. Tony Ferguson +300 does not compute in my brain.
Rusty’s pick: Tony Ferguson ML (1u) , Tony Ferguson by tko/ko (crazy this is +1100 right now) (0.5u)
Fight #10: Stephen Thompson vs Michel Pereira

The karate fighter/ nice guy Stephen Thompson enters this fight as the favorite -150 going against the underdog Brazilian +130 Michel Pereira who is on a 5 fight win streak.

Pereira certainly has the grappling advantage if he’s able to get wonder boy to the ground, but wonder boy has improved his takedown defense as of recently.

I think the most important note here to consider is the level of talent these guys have been fighting. Wonder boy has been fighting the best of the best @ welterweight for the last 10 years in comparison to the level of competition Michael has been fighting.
Rusty’s pick: Stephen Thompson ML (1u)
Fight #11: Jan Blachowicz vs Alex Pereira
SUPER WHALE MEGA 50 UNIT PLAY SELL THE HOUSE TAKE OUT A SECOND MORTGAGE MEGA PLAY

This is easy. This doesn’t need much of a write up. You have incredible power striker Alex moving up to 205 to fight the former champ Jan Blachowicz.

Alex Pereira was manhandled on the ground by Izzy who is a dog shit grappler and 20 pounds less than Jan. Not to mention Jan man handled Izzy for 5 rounds when they fought. By the transitive property (I think I barely remember math) we can assume Jan will manhandle Alex.

Expect Jan to take him down and not let him up for 3 rounds.

I’ll probably will do a light hedge sprinkle on Pereira Ko or double chance Pereira KO or Jan decision. I also like the play of Jan Blachowicz to win in round 3 or decision for +225
Rusty’s pick: Jan Blachowicz ML (3u), Jan Blachowicz to win in round 3 or decision (0.5u) for +225
Fight #12: Dustin Porier vs Justin Gaethje
GOD I CAN’T WAIT FOR THIS DAMN FIGHT. Probably going to be the fight of the year. You have two absolute bangers getting in the octagon in a fight that will surely have fireworks.

I love both of these guys. This is a once in a lifetime fight. I’m personally going with Gaethje ML. First, I’m just a huge Gaethje fan so I’m biased. Secondly I think in recent fights, Gaethje has looked better than Porier.

My actual favorite pick of the fight is over 2.5 rounds (Huhhh?). I know I know I said this would be a banger. And it will be. But it’s a 5 round fight which is a different beast. Most likely round 1 will be a bit slower just assessing and reading each other. Then round 2 I’m assuming the fury should commence. I like the odds of them making it 2.5 minutes into round 2 before the fight ends.

Also yes these guys have granite hands but they also each have solid chins. I’ve seen these guys get hit by shots that would put me permanently in a coma and they just get right back up. Give me the over!
Rusty’s pick: Gaethje ML (0.5u), O2.5 rounds (2u), sprinkle gaethje round 4 win +2000 (0.25u)
I’m also going to do a SGP, but at the time of writing this article the full SGP options aren’t available. Follow my twitter @RustyHHsports and I’ll post it there. It will look something like: Gaethje ML, O2.5, O significant strikes (some amount dependent on when it’s posted) and O knockdowns (depending when its posted)

Other fun parlays:
Roman ML, Jan ML (2u) +155
Main card ML parlay: Chiesa, Tony, Wonderboy, Jan, Gaethje (0.25u) +6300
KO specialist: Vinicius by ko, Darius flowers by ko, Derrick Lewis by ko, gaethje by ko (0.1u) +16000
Rusty’s full betting card:
Priscila by ko +500 (0.5u)
Medic ML +175 (1u)
Vinicius ML (0.5u), and exact method of victory – KO/TKO/DQ -165 (1u)
Darius Flowers ML +200 (0.5u) and double chance Matthews sub or Darius Ko -135 (1u)
Kopylov vs Riberio fight ends ITD -200 (1u); Roman ML -210 (0.5u); Sprinkle Roman tko round 2 +500 (0.25u) and Roman tko round 3 +900 (0.25U)
Derrick Lewis ML +185 (1u) ; Derrick Lewis KO +240 (0.5u), parlay Derrick Lewis by KO and U1.5 rounds +300 (0.5u)
Giles ML +270 (0.5u), double chance Bonfim submission or Giles to win by decision -175 (0.5u)
Michael Chiesa ML (2u) and Michael Chiesa ML and o1.5 rounds parlay for +195 odds (0.5u)
Tony Ferguson ML (1u) , Tony Ferguson by tko/ko +1100 (0.5u)
Stephen Thompson ML (1u)
Jan Blachowicz ML (3u), Jan Blachowicz to win in round 3 or decision (0.5u) for +225
Gaethje ML (0.5u), O2.5 rounds (2u), sprinkle gaethje round 4 win +2000 (0.25u)
Roman ML, Jan ML (2u) +155
Chiesa, Tony, Wonderboy, Jan, Gaethje (0.25u) +6300
Vinicius by ko, Darius flowers by ko, Derrick Lewis by ko, gaethje by ko (0.1u) +16000
Rusty’s best bets of the day:
Vergara Vinicius fight ends by TKO/KO
Medic ML
Michael Chiesa ML
Jan Blachowicz ML
Gaethje Porier O2.5 rounds
Roman and Jan ML parlay

Thanks for reading and good luck this weekend!