The final UFC card of 2022 is here, and it’s a bittersweet ending to a year that has provided a lot for our team and myself at Happy Hour Sports. We’ve launched the websites and have grown to reach fight fans from all over the globe who resonate and enjoy the analysis on a nearly weekly basis of the current card. For returning visitors, I’m glad that you enjoy the content and are blessed to have you coming back to the page. I always welcome constructive criticism (opening up Pandora’s Box with that one) and feedback, so if there are other elements of MMA and UFC you’d like to see – let me know on Twitter @RickHHSports if you don’t follow me already. I’m active on there and would love to hear your thoughts.
If you’re new to the website and to my UFC content, welcome! I break down each and every fight on each and every UFC card! Simple as. I look at the betting angles, analyze fighter history and style, and break down how I believe the fight will go. To this point I’m up 3.75 units on the year, which was at closer to 20 units at a point in October before having an utterly horrendous card that dropped my season totals by a bit. Still, we’re turning profit and hope that you learn something about these fighters you otherwise didn’t know and can go into viewing the UFC card with more of an understanding of the stylistic matchups and confidence in where to place your money. Without further ado, let’s get into the final card of 2022!
Sergey Morozov (-290) vs Journey Newson (+230)
Journey Newson came back from a 20 month layoff to finally notch his first UFC win against Fernie Garcia back in May and is looking to double up on his win total in 2022. Now 1-2 in the UFC, it didn’t start the way Newson wanted after losing to Ricardo Ramos and Randy Costa. To add further demise to Newson, both Ricardo and Costa combine to be 3-5 since their win against Newson.
Morozov is now 2-2 in the UFC with both wins coming by decision while both losses by stoppage. It’s no secret what gameplan Morozov will implement in this fight: strike to clinch, clinch to takedown, dominate from top control. Newson has a good gas tank, but most of his work is done from the outside where opponents can’t reach him. Newson will throw a wide range of kicks and spinning attacks from that range and while most don’t land, he’s out of his opponent’s range.
The difference will be in Morozov’s ability to close distance and stay in the pocket with Newson. Yes, Newson has good footwork to stay on the outside but Morozov is relentlessly moving forward into the pocket and even if he doesn’t shoot for takedowns he has a high-energy boxing style starting with his lead left that he hits the target on often. Expect Newson’s low-volume, low-accuracy style to lose him a decision on the cards.
Pick: Morozov by Decision +150 (1u)
David Dvorak (+200) vs Manel Kape (-265)
Manel Kape entered the UFC with a boatload of hype as the RIZIN Bantamweight Champion, and so he was gifted a date with Alexandre Pantoja in his debut. That’s no ‘gimme’ fight from Dana White, and Kape lost and then proceeded to lose again to Matheus Nicolau by split decision in his next fight before knocking out Ode Osbourne by flying knee and then Zhalgas Zhumagulov with an unbelievable flurry that I recommend anyone reading this article go back and watch. The hype train is building again behind Kape and to test that ability they offer him David Dvorak.
Dvorak also lost to Matheus Nicolau, but instead of a razor thin fight, he was soundly beaten and nearly finished. While the striking numbers were nearly even, Nicolau wobbled Dvorak and almost finished the fight, doing far more damage throughout the fight. I could see there being a similar story here with his matchup against Kape. While Dvorak is incredibly well-balanced in his mixed martial arts, he’s no master of one. He throws solid leg kicks, has good volume in his boxing and has cardio to keep it up for 15 minutes, but he’s not dominant in any area – especially not to the degree that Manel Kape is.
Kape is one of the more explosive fighters in the UFC, and I’d put him in the top 5% of fastest hands. He throws incredibly powerful leg kicks and disguises them well and when he unleashes his hooks or even jabs, he’s typically landing first. On top of that, his offensive and defensive wrestling are highly touted from his RIZIN days even though he hasn’t utilized it much in the UFC, so it’ll be interesting to see if he decides to show off that skillset here soon.
Two of Dvorak’s UFC wins have come by decision, but he’s a finisher and so is Manel Kape. Both fighters will come into this matchup with a statement to make and will be looking to impress and springboard themselves towards the rankings. I’ll go with the fight not to go the distance rather than picking a side.
Pick: u2.5 rounds +125 (1u)
Bryan Battle (+135) vs Rinat Fakhretdinov (-165)
I had a lot of questions going into Bryan Battle’s last fight out pertaining to his weight cut as he was already a large middleweight, is a former heavyweight, and decided to make the cut down to Welterweight, but boy did he end those questions early. He looked gigantic in the octagon and made quick work of Takashi Sato with a head kick knockout just 44 seconds into their bout. Now he’ll face a tougher test with Russia’s Rinat Fakhretdinov, as he makes the walk into the UFC octagon for the second time holding a 20-2 record.
Oddly enough, Battle wasn’t the only one that made a move in weight classes as Fakhretdinov did the same in his UFC debut. On the feet Fakhretdinov leaves a lot to be desired. When he lands it’s incredibly powerful, but that’s because he only throws power, looping shots that leave him defensively open for counters. A striker as technical and powerful as Battle will look to bait out some of those strikes and hit Fakhretdinov with short combinations then get out of range.
Where the Russian makes his money is in his wrestling, and he should be able to have some success in it. He’s a tricky grappler that’s hard to figure out, and while Battle has a decent wrestling game, it’s inferior to Fakhretdinov’s. Where Battle could have success is on the mat with his Jiu-Jitsu. Five of his nine wins have come by submission, and if he’s able to throw up some threatening submissions early that could instill some doubt into Fakhretdinov’s approach. I’ll take the slight underdog in Bryan Battle to pull the upset behind his much more technical, balanced skillset.
Pick: Battle +135 (1u)
Maheshate (+110) vs Rafa Garcia (-130)
Maheshate comes into his second UFC fight with as impressive a performance as you can put on, knocking out Steve Garcia just 74 seconds in with a counter right hook that planted him. He receives a large step up in another Garcia, Rafa Garcia, who is looking to improve on a deceivingly bad 2-3 record. At face value you wouldn’t think Rafa Garcia is bad, but his losses come to highly respected Lightweights right on the fringe of the rankings in Drakkar Klose and Nasrat Haqparast.
Both fighters should put on a show on the feet, and Maheshate should initiate some brawls early. Chinese fans are stoked to watch him enter the octagon again because of the speed and power he wields at the Lightweight division. A red flag of his that a conventional boxer like Rafa Garcia could exploit is that he keeps his chin up when disengaging, so a jab followed up with a hook could see him getting his clock cleaned. On the feet he won’t have the power that Maheshate brings, but if he’s able to get the fight in the pocket should have success with dirty boxing and clinch takedowns.
Where the bout could get interesting is if Garcia is able to notch those takedowns. With 8 submission victories to his name and a solid grappling game to keep Maheshate there, if he’s able to get Maheshate there early and hold him there we could see a very different Maheshate come the second and third round. I see Garcia winning this fight through his more balanced approach and clear advantage on the ground, but I’m more confident that the fight does not go the distance. I could see Maheshate knocking him out, but I could just as likely see Garcia taking him down and finishing him with his arsenal of submissions.
Picks: Garcia -130 (1u) & FNTGD +140 (2u)
Said Nurmagomedov (-110) vs Saidyokub Kakhramonov (-110)
Don’t be deceived by the last name Nurmagomedov. While Said can implement takedowns and forward pressure like Khabib he’s not cut from the same cloth, and is best at range on the feet using his footwork and kicks. While not the most damaging striker, he’s very technical and has a positive strike differential across his career. Nurmagomedov is now 5-1 in the UFC and in three of those wins he’s finished the opponent in under 3 minutes.
While he isn’t like Khabib and that family, he is a very solid wrestler and submission artist in his own right. If Kakhramonov tries to implement his takedowns like he did against Ronnie Lawrence last time out (10 takedowns) he could be in trouble with reversals and defensive submission threats as Kakhramonov struggles with top control. What he does excel at is counterstriking and endurance, keeping good staying power throughout the fight and much like Nurmagomedov he does have quality footwork to evade the inevitable kicks coming his way.
This should be one of the highest levels of fights on the card, and it’s disappointing that it’ll be stuck in the middle of a main card. This fight will start at range where I expect Nurmagomedov to win, and when Kakhramonov forces the clinch and potentially tries to implement takedowns, I believe Nurmagomedov could see more success as well. This is admittedly a very close fight, but I’ll give the Russian the edge.
Pick: Nurmagomedov -110 (1u)
Julian Marquez (-175) vs Deron Winn (+145)
This fight should be the first fight of the card, and I would tell you that you could show up 30 minutes late to the watch party and you wouldn’t miss much. Both fighters got absolutely plastered in their last fights. Julian Marquez got knocked down 5 times in one round against Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues in his last, while Deron Winn was obliterated on the feet by Phil Hawes for 9 minutes before the referee stopped in to stop the onslaught.
Deron Winn has a solid offensive wrestling game if he uses it, but his striking offense and defense leave tons to be desired. Julian Marquez doesn’t have striking defense much either, but he does press forward and force the fight to his opponents, an area that Deron Winn struggles in. I’m not convinced that Julian Marquez’s takedown defense can hold up to Deron Winn’s takedowns if we get there, but I’m not confident of much in this fight. If someone forced me into a play it’d be Marquez at -170, but I’m not paying that much juice on a fighter that has struggled throughout his career. Pass on this one.
Pick: Pass
Jake Matthews (-275) vs Matt Semelsberger (+215)
Matt Semelsberger has had a very impressive start to his UFC career after not coming in with a ton of hype. At 4-2 now in his UFC tenure, his losses come to Khaos Williams and in an entertaining bout against Alex Morono. What we know about Semelsberger now is that he likes to keep his range on the feet and close distance with larger looping shots, though they aren’t his only weapon. He has a good gas tank and can utilize offensive takedowns to his advantage, but largely his fights have stayed on the feet. In his fight against Alex Morono he easily lost the first 8 minutes as Morono boxed his ears in until he landed a takedown in the latter stages of round 2 then nearly landed a flying knee in the third.
Semelsberger has a tendency to get countered when he throws those looping shots, and there’s few worse opponents to be up against than Jake Matthews when that’s a weakness. Matthews reminded everyone just how good he can be in his last fight against Andre Fialho after taking 15 months off after a loss to Sean Brady. At only 28 years old and 10-5 in the UFC, Matthews is looking to ascend up the rankings with a tough matchup in Semelsberger and much like his opponent, Matthews can get the job done wherever the fight goes.
What we’ve seen out of Matthews is that his chin has been put in question multiple times throughout his career and given Semelsberger’s volume and forward pressure it’ll assuredly be tested here unless Matthews ends it early, which he could. As I said, Semelsberger is hittable on counters and Matthews’ power is fantastic, so I’ll go with there to be a finish in this fight at plus money. This fight should be incredibly close as well so I’ll sprinkle on the underdog to get a win here in Semelsberger as well.
Pick: Semelsberger +215 (.5u) & FNTGD +110 (1u)
Cheyanne Vlismas (-193) vs Cory McKenna (+163)
Cory McKenna has the shortest reach in the UFC at under five feet in length, and boy is it noticeable in her fights. Thankfully for her sake, she relies on her grappling more so than her striking. I’m not sure if she ever had a choice in that regard, but you can tell she’s put hours upon hours of time training on the mat. Her relentless wrestling and grappling is impressive and her cardio and durability add to that ability to succeed in that game plan against anyone.
She’s up against Cheyanne Vlismas who is a fantastic striker but they’re nearly all power shots that she puts a lot of energy behind. Given her lack of power to get opponents out of there, that could open up opportunities for McKenna to get deep on a takedown and if completed she should be able to hold Vlismas down. If the fight stays on the feet Vlismas is a level above McKenna, but I’ll take the underdog to snatch a victory here through relentless takedowns and cardio.
Pick: McKenna +163 (1u)
Cody Brundage (+222) vs Michal Oleksiejczuk (-287)
Michal Oleksiejczuk enters the octagon winning three of his last four bouts, and given six of his last eight fights have ended by stoppage we’re not likely to see one here. Cody Brundage is built from a similar cloth, with 7 of his 8 wins coming by finish including a clean knockout of Tresean Gore in his last fight. It’s no secret that Oleksiejczuk has the power advantage in his hands with 9 knockouts to his name, but Brundage is dangerous on the feet as well.
If there’s one thing not to expect with Michal on the feet it’s leg kicks. He can throw them, but never does. What I would expect is lots of movement horizontally and level changes, and his left hand is unbelievably damaging when connecting clean. He struggles with inactivity at times when he tries to set up that overhand left, but when it connects it changes fights.
Brundage is a very basic striker on the feet but it is effective. His left straight and jab are decently effective within range and he throws a lead elbow at times that doesn’t land all that often but could slice opponents open easily. He’ll likely want to lead the dance cautiously to open up a takedown attempt, where he should have the decided advantage. While he’s not the most threatening on the ground he could cause some trouble for Oleksiejczuk with control, and between that threat and a more active striking style, I’ll go with the underdog to avoid the massive strike from Oleksiejczuk.
Pick: Brundage +222 (1u)
Drew Dober (-150) vs Bobby Green (+120)
It’s Drew Dober fight week, and if you somehow missed his knockout of Terrance McKinney or body shot KO of Rafael Alves in his last fight, do NOT miss his fight here against Bobby Green. They might be 21-15-1 combined in the UFC but both fighters put on a show each and every time they enter the octagon. Oddly enough, both fighters have exactly 9 wins by knockout and submissions.
Dober is back to winning ways after losing back to back fights against Islam Makhachev and Brad Riddell, ending his ascendance to the rankings after going 6-1 in his previous 7 fights. He’s going to enter the pocket and brawl with his opponents and set up his left hook which has proven to devastate opponents. His chin has largely held up throughout his career, but if he gets cracked he does have a good takedown game.
Where he’ll be tested is in Bobby Green’s striking defense and ability to pick apart opponents at range. Green has been fighting the top of the division for a long time now, dating back to his loss to Dustin Poirier and Edson Barbosa back in 2016 and 2014 respectively, but he hasn’t been able to finish anyone aside from Al Iaquinta and I don’t expect him to do that against Drew Dober here either. Dober will push Green back against the fence and force the brawls out of him, where Green can’t use his shoulder roll to avoid strikes. I doubt Green’s chin is able to withstand the brawl from Dober, and I’ll give the favorite the win here.
Pick: Dober -150 (1.5u)
Alex Caceres (+145) vs Julian Erosa (-185)
Bobby Green and Drew Dober might be 21-15-1 in the UFC, but Alex Caceres and Julian Erosa are 20-16 without the fights toward the upper echelon of the division to fall back on. It’s bewildering that these two are above Dober and Green, but that’s neither here nor there. Erosa may only be 6-5 in the UFC, but he’s won 5 of his last 6 fights and two of those wins come against Hakeem Dawodu and Charles Jourdain, two impressive strikers that are hard to take out.
Alex Caceres lost his last fight out against Sodiq Yusuff but going into that fight he entered on a 6 fight win streak with his staple win coming against Seung Woo Choi by submission in the second round. That’s not a great win to anchor your win streak, but now he has a fantastic step up in competition to test himself. If he’s going to surpass this obstacle he’s going to have to keep his range on the feet and utilize his consistent, steady striking complimented by his footwork to keep Erosa at range.
Erosa will march forward the entire fight, and if Caceres is able to stick and move he could have success for extended periods of time, but if Caceres cannot Erosa will exhaust Caceres and brawl, an area that Erosa should have an advantage in even though he has been knocked out numerous times. If the fight goes to the mat either fighter could have their way, but I only expect it to get there if a knockdown is involved. I’ll take the fight to not go to the cards as Erosa should force the dog out of Caceres and force one of them to get cracked at some stage of the fight.
Pick: FNTGD +119 (1u)
Amir Albazi (-550) vs Alessandro Costa (+350)
Alessandro Costa makes his UFC debut on Saturday after proving to Dana he was worth a contract by knocking out opponent Carlos Gomez in 12 seconds following his split decision win on DWCS. To greet him into the UFC’s arms he is welcomed by Amir Albazi who is now 3-0 after beating Francisco Figueiredo by rear naked choke in his last fight.
Costa is a BJJ Black Belt but he is multiple levels below Albazi’s wrestling and grappling. Could Costa land a big strike on Albazi’s way in for a takedown? Sure. I don’t believe that he will though. Albazi is continuing to improve on the feet and could even give Costa problems there. Albazi is a -550 favorite for a reason, and I’ll be taking Albazi to decrease the odds in a play later.
Pick: Pass, for now
Arman Tsarukyan (-190) vs Damir Ismagulov (+145)
Other than Nurmagomedov vs Kakhramonov, this fight will be the best of the night. Strickland vs Cannonier will be plenty entertaining, but these two push such a pace and at an incredibly high level that there is no chance it won’t be a fight of the night contender. Tsarukyan is 5-2 in the UFC but his two losses come to the current champion (Islam Makhachev) and Mateusz Gamrot in one of the highest level fights I’ve seen in a long time. He’s always been a phenomenal wrestler and grappler, but he’s finally able to implement ground and pound while holding opponents there to really devastate opposition.
Ismagulov shouldn’t get ragdolled in this fight though. Much like Tsarukyan’s fight with Gamrot, they’ll be transitioning between positions often. Though I favor Tsarukyan when the fight gets to the mat, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ismagulov have some moments of success. On the feet Tsarukyan is continuing to improve, but that’s more where Ismagulov gets his bread buttered with 11 knockouts to his name. Both land at about the same rate throughout their UFC career but Ismagulov does tend to get in more 50/50 exchanges throughout his career.
Ismagulov has shown a tendency to be hit in those car-crash exchanges and it took a comeback to beat Guram Kutateladze in his last fight. Given Tsarukyan’s wild striking, relentless pace and fantastic takedowns I’ll take a flier on the Armenian to get back to winning ways.
Pick: Tsarukyan & Albazi -115 (1u)
Jared Cannonier (-110) vs Sean Strickland (-110)
Both of these main event participants are coming off disappointing performances in their last outing with Cannonier failing to win the title over Adesanya and Strickland thinking it was a good decision to stand with now champion Alex Pereira. That fight didn’t last long as Pereira ended his night just midway through the first round.
It’s no secret that Jared Cannonier used to fight at Heavyweight but is now down to the 185 pound limit at Middleweight. The body transformation was healthy and his performance since the move has been stellar, beating the likes of Anderson Silva, Jack Hermansson, Kelvin Gastelum and Derek Brunson along the way. It’s always been through his striking, and if he’s going to beat Strickland on Saturday it’ll largely be because the fight happened largely on the feet.
Cannonier does good work at range with solid combinations that start with the head (64%) but mix in the body (18%) and legs (18%) as well. Where he’s best is when the fight is in a phone booth. His best weapon is short elbows on the inside, but he also lands short punches to the rib cage and knees up the middle from there as well. If he’s able to keep the fight there he should see success against Strickland if his gas tank holds up.
That’s a big question though because we know just how exhausting Strickland’s forward pressure is. Strickland’s biggest weakness in my opinion is his arrogance and lack of fighter IQ. He’s psychotic – he wants to beat his opponent where his opponent is best to prove a point. That’s why he got annihilated by Pereira and why I doubt he utilizes his solid wrestling game against Cannonier. Strickland keeps a good pace throughout fights, but his volume doesn’t match that pace (though it’s not bad either). I give Cannonier the power advantage on the feet and distinctly when they’re in close, and I’ll take the Killa Gorilla to get it done and bounce back.
Pick: Cannonier -110 (1u)
