Week 1 NFL Picks – Sharpen the Public Podcast – September 6, 2023 NFL Betting

NFL Football is BACK – and so is the Sharpen the Public Podcast

We have made it. Welcome back to Happy Hour Sports. Its been a bit of a weird offseason for me, but with the first NFL game finally back on Thursday, you can count on me for the trends that you want to hear before placing your bets every single week.

First things first, things are going to be a little different this year. Sharpen the Public will come out TWICE a week with recaps out on Tuesday and previews out on the normal Fridays. You can still expect to see my article and picks every Sunday, but they may have less information due to an article coming out discussing recaps earlier in the week. So expect more content and check out the latest Sharpen the Public Episode that was released today (September 6, 2023)!

This is an article written by DJ Bianco

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Week 1 NFL Picks  Sports betting Podcast

Football betting trends and our analysis for Week One

Okay, back to football. There are two main things I want to cover in this article (and we covered in the podcast) and those are previous year Sharpen the Public data (general trends and the best one to look for) as well as diving into Week One from last year, specifically. Remember, sports betting is all about adapting, but every week we will look to be ahead of the curve. I wanted to include all of the matchups in this article, but am thinking I will just do a stand alone Thursday game article out tomorrow and then my usual article detailing my thoughts and picks – letting as much information as possible come out.

2022 General Betting Trends

Public Betting Percentage: 129-136 ATS
Public on Over: 65-89
Public on Under: 60-52
Money Percentage: 146-119 ATS
Money on Over: 40-47
Money on Under: 95-77
Sharp Differential: 145-120
Sharps on Over: 36-45
Sharps on Under: 107-77

Through 2022 there were so many things we talked about on the podcast, Sharpen the Public. The main reason we started everything was to take the above numbers and say, this is not enough. The common phrases of “fade the public” and “follow the money” don’t quite work as plainly as people may believe. Looking at 2022, if you faded the public every single game, which in itself is a feat, you would have gone positive record wise, but would’ve lost money on the juice (assuming every bet was taken at -110).

You can look at the more intelligent trends to follow like money and sharps, and if you managed to tail them for every game then yes you can go positive, but it takes a lot to look every Sunday right before kickoff to find the games you need to tail (betting 16 games a week is not feasible for everyone). Also, even if you bet every game, you would not even have won at a staggering clip. So, that is why we are here, to go deeper into the general public betting information that everyone loves to dissect.

Additionally, throughout the 2022 season there were several deeper trends that emerged that held us and Sharpen the Public listeners in awe and I am excited to bring these back for the 2023 season.

Take a look at the BEST Sharpen the Public Trends from 2022:

• Greater than 65% money went 82-52 ATS – a 60% Win Percentage
• Golden Rule (Any sharp Diff. between 20-29%) went 78-43 ATS – a 64% Win Percentage
• The Geico Trend (any spread bet greater than 15% sharp differential) went 74-49 ATS – a 61% Win Percentage
• Lastly, 60-41 when the sharp differential money percentage oppose public percentage.

(When I say public and money favor something, it means that 50% or more of the public percentage or money percentage are on one team. Sharp differential refers to wherever the sharp differential is positive). In the below example of the Lions and Chiefs, the public backs the chiefs, money and sharps back the Lions +5.5.

Hopefully you guys are starting to see the power of Sharpen the Public and what we can find when we take a deep dive into these numbers. Combine that stuff with teams the public like to bet every year and find out who they are good and bad at (same with the money and sharps) and we can make bets solely based on what the general betting public is thinking, I think that is pretty cool. Now with this stuff under our belt, let’s take a look at Week 1s in particular, especially last year.

Week One Betting Trends

2022 Outcomes:

• Public went 6-10 ATS in Week 1
• Public went 1-6 ATS when 60% or more of the bets were on a team in Week 1
• Public went 4-7 betting the over in Week 1 
• Public went 4-1 betting the under in Week 1
• Money went 8-8 ATS in Week 1
• Money went 4-6 betting the over in Week 1
• Money went 5-1 betting the under in Week 1
• Sharp differential went 9-7 in Week 1
• Sharps went 2-5 betting the over in Week 1
• Sharps went 6-3 betting the under in Week 1
• Golden Rule went 3-0 and the Geico Trend went 4-0 to start the year

Generally speaking, we can see that following the public on spreads, and following anything on the over in last year’s week 1 would have lost you a lot of money. Knowing the full year results too at this point, it is interesting to see how indicative week 1 was on the rest of the year. If you look back to the earlier 2022 full trends you will see that the money and sharps were great at the under and the public sucked betting the over, all of which are things we saw happen in week 1.

We may not see as great trends looking specifically at the money and sharps for week one, but remember to think about the Geico Trend and Golden Rule as we get closer and closer to Sunday. As another disclaimer, I intend to post everything on Reddit and Twitter (or X) as I did last season, so remember to follow me @DeejHHSports to not miss a beat!

Last thing I want to discuss in this article is some cool trends I saw on Twitter and during my research regarding week 1:

• In the past 10 years teams that have become bigger favorites in week 1 have gone 34-52-2 (40%) ATS:
  • Falcons -2.5 to -3.5
  • Ravens -9.5 to -10
  • Jaguars -3.5 to -4.5
  • Commanders -5.5 to -7
  • Broncos -3 to -3.5
  • Chargers -2.5 to -3
  • Bills -1.5 to -2.5 
• Since 2005 favorites of 6 or more points on week 1 are 39-51-2 (43%) ATS
  • Ravens -10
  • Chiefs – 6
  • Commanders -7
  • Vikings -6
  • Underdogs since 2013 are 112-91-4 (55%) on week 1
• Rookie HCs in Week 1 are 57-39 Away from Home 
  • Demeco Ryans and the Texans

Thanks for checking out this article! Expect a lot more from me this season, let’s win some bets!

The most Recent Episodes of Sharpen the Public NFL Betting Podcast

This is an article written by DJ Bianco