Week 1 Public Betting Report and Analysis for NFL Sports Betting

NFL Week 1 Recap

NFL Week 1 is already in the books as bets begin to pour in for the Thursday Night matchup between the Eagles and Vikings. However, we need to debrief on the outcomes of the Week 1 games before we even start thinking about Week 2. So much happened this past weekend from crazy games by Tyreek Hill and the Cowboys, to tough injuries like Aaron Rodgers. The important thing to learn from these outcomes is what will the public think next week, based on how they performed this week, so let’s get into the results.

As a disclaimer, the new format from me and Happy Hour Sports is a recap episode and article coming out early in the week following Sunday. So, the podcast episode recapping my thoughts and the public betting trends is already out, and you can check it out below! You can still expect a normal preview episode later in the week in addition to my best bets piece every sunday, so much content!

If you are new here, we track public betting trends in order to win more bets. Every day it’s posted on twitter the public is 85% on this team, or the next team, but never has it been clear what those numbers mean, until now. Starting last year, me and some other Happy Hour Sports creators began Sharpen the Public, the ultimate sports betting podcast focusing on leveraging public betting information to win more bets, and we have not looked back since.

NFL Betting Trends for 2023

Regarding the stats for last year, I don’t want to bore anyone with information they have already seen/read, so I will link you here to the article and podcast discussing the trends from last year. Because today we start tracking 2023 stats! I am going to make it a priority to discuss this year’s stats in reference to last year, so we can note changes and other emerging trends. For example, the Golden Rule last year was one of our heaviest hitters in 2022, yet for spreads it only went 1-2 ATS to start the year (started 4-0 week 1 in 2022). So, is that a deviation from the mean, or a changing trend? This is all stuff we consider in these articles and in the podcast.

So, let’s get into it. In these articles I also plan to break down a quick paragraph on what my thoughts were going into each game, and coming out of it because we are always learning here at Happy Hour Sports. Please share this article if you find it interesting, as we are the only people in the sports betting world focused on providing information like this!

Sharpen the Public Trends:

• • • • Public Betting Percentage: 7-9 ATS
      • Money Betting Percentage: 7-9 ATS
      • Sharp Differential: 8-8 ATS
      • Public on Over: 3-5
      • Money on Over: 3-3
      • Sharp Diff. on Over: 2-2
      • Public on Under: 7-2
      • Money on Under: 9-1
      • Sharp Diff on Under: 10-2

In a turn of events, the public performed far better than expected in my opinion. Week 1 is typically a bad week for the public, given the duration of time Vegas can curate lines and the biased opinions of every team the public has going into the season. Although, this year there were some wild endings that led to the right bet (in my opinion) ending the wrong way. The two clear examples there are the heavily public favored Eagles and Ravens barely sliding by and covering.

So despite the public performing well here, and even the money performing poorly, I think there are a few things we can take away from the week 1 spread outcomes – public/money betting trend wise. The most intriguing one to me is this weird range of 60-64% of the money. So far in week 1, 6 teams had between 60% and 64% of the total money placed on the game, and none of them covered. Last year that range went 16-31 ATS, so is this some weird coincidence or does the money actually suck in that range? I elaborate on it a bit more in my podcast, but I am curious to hear what you guys think.

The only other thing I currently see for spreads is a 4-0 ATS record for sharp differentials between 10-14%. Seasoned Sharpen the Public listeners will know that is below our typical 15% Geico trend. So, I am thinking that with the sudden increase in bettors and the amount of bets placed (350,000 vs 800,000 bets placed on opening nights in 2022 and 2023, respectively), ranges may be beginning to shift and we may see and even more important cap to our Golden Rule trend later in the year. We will keep an eye on these things as we see them change, but always account for it in our bets.

Moving to the totals, there are pretty obvious trends there. Last year we had incredible success backing the public, money, and sharps when they favored the under, and it looks like we can expect the same thing again. The downturn in scoring in the NFL in recent years is the major contributor to that. I mean just between last year and this year, the average Vegas total for week 1 games went down 3 points, which is very significant. Sooner or later, Vegas will have to adjust, but as long as the public continues to bet overs at the rate at which they are, Vegas has no reason to. We love unders here at Happy Hour Sports.

Last thing I want to point out is the whole point for Sharpen the Public is to be more cognisant of the plays the public and money are making and to learn their habits. The general statement of “fade the public and follow the money” cannot be taken at face value, because if it were that easy everyone would do it. We tracked the public, money, and sharp records all of last year and have an arsenal of information to inform our bets this year. Stay the course and keep adapting with us here, as we look to take over the NFL this year. Thanks for reading, and I look forward to seeing you guys later this week as we prepare for Week 2! As promised, here are the outcomes for every week 1 game, including my thoughts:

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NFL Week 1 Game by Game Betting Recap

The goal for this section of the recap articles is to point out my thought process while making picks and choosing which will stay as just a lean. I also want to point out the public betting numbers for individual games so everyone can understand what I mean when I talk about these numbers, as I don’t think it’s necessarily trivial. Lastly, I will discuss things I see either in teams or in the numbers that we can use in games throughout the season to win more bets. Please let me know what you think/how I can improve these articles!

Week 1 Thursday Night Game: Lions v Chiefs -3.5, o/u 52.5

Winner: Lions 21-20
Covered: Lions +3.5, u52.5

Public on Lions: 45%
Money on Lions: 57%
Sharp Diff. on Lions: 12%

Public on Under: 38%
Money on Under: 44%
Sharp Diff. on Under: 6%

STP/Deej Outcome: +2u on Lions +6.5

For the duration of the week, it was clear the sharp play in game one of the 2023 NFL season was the Lions +6.5. However, that became even more clear once Travis Kelce was listed as out and the line dropped all the way to 3.5 points at one point, finally settling at 4.5. I loved the Lions for this reason, in addition to the lack of Chris Jones on the Chiefs defense, without him the potent Lions offense was ready to break through. We did not quite see the extreme potency of the offense, but they got the job done and knocked off the Super Bowl Champs. I would not worry if I were a Chiefs fan though, they are still going to be a force to be reckoned with. I am looking to bet in a bounce back fashion for them in Week 2.

Week 1 Sunday Game: Bengals v Browns +2.5, o/u 46.5

Winner: Browns 24-3
Covered: Browns +2.5, u46.5

Public on Browns: 54%
Money on Browns: 73%
Sharp Diff. on Browns: 19%

Public on Under: 51%
Money on Under: 63%
Sharp Diff. on Under: 12%

STP/Deej Outcome: +1u on Browns +2.5

I’m suspecting that after all of the Joe Burrow news with both his new contract and him recovering well enough from his preseason injury to play, the public would have not known where to go here. Throughout the week the public was mainly on the Bengals until Sunday where the sharps steamed the line down to a pickem and even in favor of the Browns. I loved the Browns the whole way here and that’s why it was one of the main picks we made. The AFC North is too tough to go into and win outright at an away stadium, and this Browns pass rush is too good for even the revamped Bengals O line. Was clearly the right play to take the divisional home dog, and the Browns looked legit.

Week 1 Sunday Game: Niners v Steelers +2.5, o/u 41.5

Winner: Niners 30-7
Covered: Niners -2.5, u41.5

Public on Niners: 44%
Money on Niners: 20%
Sharp Diff. on Niners: -24%

Public on Under: 45%
Money on Under: 56%
Sharp Diff. on Under: 11%

STP/Deej Outcome: -1.1u on Steelers +2.5

Complete misread here by me and a lot of the sharps given the great trends we saw in favor of the Steelers here. There was a massive sharp influence on Pittsburgh from the start resulting in a Golden Rule trend for us that just simply bit us in the butt. Brock Purdy has clearly made some improvements and recovered over the offseason, and I genuinely did not expect Nick Bosa to play, nevermind get as many snaps as he did. TJ Watt came to play and it excites me for the futures we have on him, but it wasn’t enough as the Niners solidified themselves as the best team in the conference, for now. I’ll look to bet on the Steelers again in the near future and bounce back strong, given their personnel and coaching. However, Kenny Pickett needs to improve. We will give him the benefit of the doubt going up against the Niners defense.

Week 1 Sunday Game: Ravens v Texans +10, o/u 43.5

Winner: Ravens 25-9
Covered: Ravens -10, u43.5

Public on Ravens: 55%
Money on Ravens: 40%
Sharp Diff. on Ravens: -15%

Public on Under: 52%
Money on Under: 46%
Sharp Diff. on Under: -6%

STP/Deej Outcome: -1.1u on Texans +10

I also loved the Texans in this spot, and it looked like they would be able to get there pretty much the entire game. CJ Stroud showed us he has the tools of an elite QB, but the weapons and defense are not quite there. Taking the Texans here we were naming a poor and slow performance from Lamar and the Ravens, which is what we got. However, the offense failed to pull it together despite the chances they were given. Losing this spread by 4 points here is a bad beat in my eyes since the game was far closer than the final score entailed. At the end of the day it was a bit risky to put faith into this Houston team, but I would gladly do it again, I think they are going to do pretty well ATS this year and I’ll hope the public continues to choose to fade them often.

Week 1 Sunday Game: Cardinals Commanders -7, o/u 38

Winner: Commanders 20-16
Covered: Cardinals +7, u38

Public on Cardinals: 22%
Money on Cardinals: 46%
Sharp Diff. on Cardinals: 24%

Public on Under: 53%
Money on Under: 78%
Sharp Diff. on Under: 25%

STP/Deej Outcome: +1u on Cardinals +7

This was a pure fade the public game, and it worked out nicely. Sam Howell and the commanders offense are not good enough to be 7 point favorites against anyone, and it showed. The spread did come into question near the end and I was nervous for a back door Commanders cover, but Ron Rivera elected to kindly punt the ball away and not go up by 7. The public ended up with their highest confidence level in this spot, which makes sense given the hype around the new ownership and lack of fire power on the Cardinals team. However, long term the Commanders are not a team that will outright destroy opponents and for them to take care of a Cardinals team that is better than people think, it was an easy look towards the Cards here. I especially loved the Golden Rule here, given the intense public support on the Commanders.

Week 1 Sunday Game: Raiders v Broncos -3, o/u 43

Winner: Raiders 17-16
Covered: Raiders +3, u43

Public on Raiders: 49%
Money on Raiders: 40%
Sharp Diff. on Raiders: -9%

Public on Under: 47%
Money on Under: 91%
Sharp Diff. on Under: 44%

STP/Deej Outcome: +1u on Under 43

I was pretty unsure where to lean on the spread here, but at the end of the day I liked the Broncos. I think last year was a deviation from where they are meant to be as I still believe in Russ as a QB. I also love Sean Payton as a head coaching hire and with their stout defense, you have to expect they will play any team close. That is the main reason I took the under here. It was a great divisional under play with teams looking to find their groove to start the season. The offense of the Raiders can be scary, but expectedly so the Broncos defense handled them well. Russ looks slightly better than last year managing to put up double digit points, so we will continue to back him and their unders until Vegas adjusts. Broncos unders were a profit booster last year, and with a massive 44% sharp differential in favor of that here, you have to love to see this one go under.

Week 1 Sunday Game: Dolphins v Chargers -3, o/u 50

Winner: Dolphins 36-34
Covered: Dolphins +3, o50

Public on Dolphins: 56%
Money on Dolphins: 34%
Sharp Diff. on Dolphins: -22%

Public on Over: 77%
Money on Over: 78%
Sharp Diff. on Over: 1%

STP/Deej Outcome: -1.1u on Chargers -3

The only favorite I took in week one was the Chargers and it bit me in the ass. In the end it was a bit of an overlook on my end assuming the Chargers defense would be able to handle a rusty Tua. The Dolphins offense looked scary and I’m very thankful to have Tyreek Hill in fantasy. If the Dolphins defense pulls together this will be a tough team to put away in the AFC. I liked the Chargers for their more put together offense (RBs and TEs, OLine), but misread their defense. I would not be worried if I were a Chargers fan here, they will have a lot in the tank to be a contender in their division with Herbert at the helm, especially if the WRs stay healthy. I still believe this is the right read despite a massive day from Tua and Tyreek. The Chargers offense had no issues keeping up with the Dolphins offense, but the final drive ruined the win and cover.

Week 1 Sunday Game: Jaguars v Colts +3.5, o/u 45.5

Winner: Jaguars 31-21
Covered: Jaguars -3.5, o45.5

Public on Jaguars: 72%
Money on Jaguars: 39%
Sharp Diff. on Jaguars: -33%

Public on Over: 66%
Money on Over: 69%
Sharp Diff. on Over: 3%

STP/Deej Outcome: No bet, leaned Colts +3.5

The first game of my non plays and I heavily leaned the Colts here. Sharps were all over them all week and they even fell into some of our awesome trends (77% of public on Jags and 33% differential in favor of the Colts). However, the lack of weapons and veteran presence prevented them from coming out on top in the end, despite leading for most of the game. This was genuinely a good spot to back a divisional home dog in week one even though the Jags are far better in every sense than the Colts. If we get a similar line later in the year expect to hammer Jags. The reintroduction of Calvin Ridley was awesome to see especially with us having a few futures on him this year. This was a bad beat for Colts bettors. Like the Texans I’m eyeing the Colts as a team that performs well ATS with people expecting an underperformance.

Week 1 Sunday Game: Bucs v Vikings -4, o/u 44.5

Winner: Bucs 20-17
Covered: Bucs +4, u44.5

Public on Bucs: 40%
Money on Bucs: 59%
Sharp Diff. on Bucs: 19%

Public on Under: 34%
Money on Under: 19%
Sharp Diff. on Under: -15%

STP/Deej Outcome: No bet, leaned Bucs +4

On the other side of my lean coin, I very much wish I took the Bucs here (even Bucs ML). Everyone and their mother knows how fraudulent the Vikings were last year, and the Bucs proved it to us. Sharp bettors were all over the Bucs all week here and they easily cashed with Baker. I left this one as a lean solely because of Baker’s first couple of games as a Panther. I was so high on him then and they looked awful with him last year. I think he’s a good quarterback and the Bucs have some big weapons, so they will be a force as I predicted in our NFC South preview. Do I like them next week against the Bears, no. You have to always be adaptable.

Week 1 Sunday Game: Titans v Saints -3, o/u 41

Winner: Saints 16-15
Covered: Titans +3, u41

Public on Titans: 68%
Money on Titans: 82%
Sharp Diff. on Titans: 14%

Public on Under: 52%
Money on Under: 66%
Sharp Diff. on Under: -14%

STP/Deej Outcome: No bet, leaned Saints -3 and Under 41

Here I leaned Saints purely because of how high I was on them to win the division in the offseason. With Tannehill at quarterback we knew what to expect from Tennessee, but Carr added a dynamic factor to this game that I was not prepared to bank on, which is why I elected to not place a bet here. Looking back, the under was the bet to make given the strong public betting indicators of a confident money backing and indecisive public. As for the spread, the public and money heavily favored the Titans here. I felt despite everything, the line was spot on at 3 points and not much value, I am glad we stayed away.

Week 1 Sunday Game: Packers v Bears -1, o/u 40.5

Winner: Packers 38-20
Covered: Packers +1, o41

Public on Packers: 40%
Money on Packers: 53%
Sharp Diff. on Packers: 13%

Public on Over: 68%
Money on Over: 63%
Sharp Diff. on Over: -5%

STP/Deej Outcome: No bet, leaned Packers +1

Look away Bears fans, as it is official you still bow down to Green Bay. I was back and forth on where I leaned here all week, but ultimately ended up leaning the Packers. Their defense was too strong last year, and the Bears defense is too poor. Add in the fact that Jordan Love played very well with a nice outing from Aaron Jones, and they were able to put up a dominant performance against their division rivals. On the other side of the ball, the Bears offense showed some signs of life, but its not quite there. Justin Fields is going to be good, whenever he is able to stop running away from the pass rush. Public betting trends definitely favored the Packers here too with a nice 13% differential towards the Packers and 60% of the public on the Bears. I mainly elected to stay away due to the question marks of the Packers offense (Jordan Love). However, they showed they are still kings of this rivalry.

Week 1 Sunday Game: Eagles v Patriots +3.5, o/u 44

Winner: Eagles 25-20
Covered: Eagles -3.5, o44

Public on Eagles: 61%
Money on Eagles: 39%
Sharp Diff. on Eagles: -22%

Public on Over: 36%
Money on Over: 12%
Sharp Diff. on Over: -24%

STP/Deej Outcome: No bet, leaned Patriots +3.5

Tough bad beat here for Patriots bettors as the second half was a clear showing of a team that should have covered and maybe even have won. As an Eagles fan, this game worries me a little bit. Although I think most of the lackluster gameplay can be attributed to rust, the offensive play calling was not where I would like it to be. It is clear we are missing Shane Steichen, at least at this very moment. The Eagles should be alright in the long run, I hope. As for the Patriots, I leaned +3.5 the whole week and boy am I glad we did not take this bet. The Eagles moved from -4.5 to -3.5 throughout the week due to sharp bets coming in and the game ended a Golden Rule in favor of the Patriots. This was a right bet and wrong result outcome. The Patriots look good, and I will be happy to bet on them this year, especially if the public continues to fade them.

Week 1 Sunday Game: Rams v Seahawks +4.5, o/u 44.5

Winner: Rams 30-13
Covered: Rams +4.5, u44.5

Public on Rams: 32%
Money on Rams: 37%
Sharp Diff. on Rams: 5%

Public on Under: 55%
Money on Under: 70%
Sharp Diff. on Under: 15%

STP/Deej Outcome: No bet, leaned Seahawks -4.5

Geno and company getting 4.5 at home here, now that we are able to look back on it, was a blessing for the Rams. This Rams team won the Super Bowl about a year and a half ago and people were already ready to start counting them out before the year. I mean there were 68% of the bets on Seattle here and the Rams dismantled them in their own stadium, without Cooper Kupp. This Rams team is more legit than I thought they would be to start the season. I mainly laid off due to the impressive record of Pete Carroll over Sean McVay and the question mark of Cooper Kupp. Additionally, basically all of the money in this game was “public money” as there was only a slight differential in favor of the Rams. Glad we stayed away here, since I did lean the Seahawks.

Week 1 Sunday Game: Cowboys v Giants -3.5, o/u 44.5

Winner: Cowboys 40-0
Covered: Cowboys +3.5, u44.5

Public on Cowboys: 49%
Money on Cowboys: 40%
Sharp Diff. on Cowboys: -9%

Public on Under: 51%
Money on Under: 78%
Sharp Diff. on Under: 27%

STP/Deej Outcome: -0.5u on Giants +3.5

In the rout of the week, I was unsure which way to lean, but I ultimately placed a half unit on the Giants purely because of the public betting numbers. Boy were we wrong. I am not sure anyone predicted the Cowboys to come out to MetLife and win by 40 and shutout the Cowboys. I mean if you did, please share that ticket on social media, you deserve it. After the season last year, I was not ready to put faith in the Cowboys. Dak managed to handle old Tom Brady in the playoffs, but the offense did nothing against the Niners defense. What I did not account for was how impressive the Cowboys own defense was in the final games last season, and their offseason improvements. Their defensive line is scary and the Cowboys solidified themselves as a top team in the NFC, for now. Glad we only threw a half unit on this game.

Week 1 Sunday Game: Bills v Jets +2.5, o/u 44.5

Winner: Jets 22-16
Covered: Jets +2.5, u44.5

Public on Jets: 48%
Money on Jets: 52%
Sharp Diff. on Jets: 4%

Public on Under: 53%
Money on Under: 64%
Sharp Diff. on Under: 11%

STP/Deej Outcome: +1u on Under 45.5

To round out our week, the entire world got to see Aaron Rodgers’ achilles vibrate and break within his leg on national television. Sad to see him go down like that, but the only bet we had in this game was the under. There was so much steam on this total throughout the week bringing it from 47.5 all the way to 44.5. There was the poor weather consideration, the AFC East divisional matchup, the primetime nature, and even public betting trends that pointed to the under here. Aaron getting injured basically locked in the total as early as we could have wished and brought us a nice +1u to end week 1. As for the spread, I leaned Bills by the time kickoff happened and am very glad we stayed away from the spread. There was a slight sharp differential in favor of the Jets on Monday Night, so that’s why we didn’t touch the spread, given I leaned Bills. The Bills may be the new frauds in town, but I think it is a bit too early to tell.

STP/Deej After Week 1: +2.2u

Thanks for reading my recap on Week 1! Stay tuned for the preview coming at the end of the week, I am excited to dive into last years trends to find some winners in Week 2.

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This is an article written by DJ Bianco