Week 12 College Football Betting Picks by Happy Hour Sports Writers
It’s that time again – Happy Hour Sports’ Writers have picked college football betting action that makes sense for the 12th week of the NCAAF campaign – an important time in the College Football Season. Have a look at the picks by Lonte, and Rick for Week 12 in crucial action to secure bowl game placement.
Lonte’s Picks for NCAAF Betting for week 12 of the 2023-24 College Football Season
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Iowa St +7.5
Ames has been a house of horrors for the Longhorns. In the last five games in Ames, the Hawkeyes have won three and covered four. The lone game they did not cover was a 10 point win for Texas.
Texas loses Jonathan Brooks who was there bell cow back and will rely on highly touted freshman CJ Baxter. Iowa Sf is top 45 in rush success rate allowed which will make it even tougher for the freshman.
Even with Brooks, the Longhorns were outside the top 100 in rush success rate so the Hawkeyes defense should be able to control this explosive Texas offense.
I think the Iowa St offense can control the clock, and keep the Texas offense off the field. Even with Ewers being back, their ISU secondary has been really good, ranking top 15 in success rate allowed. Look for a low scoring game in Ames with Texas on upset alert.
Rick’s Picks for College Football Betting in crucial Week 12 for 23-24′
Washington @ Oregon State (-2.5, o/u 62.5)
All of my futures rest on this game, and while the allegiance I’ve formed with the Beavers from backing their entire ludicrous ATS run has me cheering them on this game, I’ve been apprehensive to pick a side. I do my best not to be an emotional bettor, but given my rooted interest in both sides’ success this season I know a lot about these teams and how they perform under different circumstances.
Everyone’s first inclination is to look at the spread and see 8-2 Oregon State as favorites over the undefeated and Heisman hopeful Michael Penix Jr., but as you continue to look at the matchups on both sides of the ball it shows just how close a game this will be. Starting first with the Washington offense, we know just how dominant they are through the air with two likely first round picks in Penix and Rome Odunze. They’ve scored 31 or more in every game but one this year and it’s largely in the air.
The unit they are facing has struggled (relatively) to contain the best pass-heavy offenses they’ve faced in a fully healthy Washington State and a surging Arizona. Cal also hung 40 on them. The secondary of the Beavers is susceptible to big plays, but their run defense has been lights out allowing just over the century mark each game. Offensively for the Beavers, it’s been a model of efficiency all year. They haven’t asked DJ Uiagalelei to sling it around for 300 yards a game. Jonathan Smith and the coaching staff have eased him in through a dominant rushing attack that sets up his play-action passing well, and he’s managed games very well as a whole. With just 24 TDs to 4 INTs, he’s been an expert game manager that churns clock and has sneaky dangerous weapons.
Damien Martinez at RB is elite for the Beavers, and that Washington defense can’t stop much of anyone this season. Allowing over 400 yards, including 140 on the ground, they don’t match up well with what the Beavers excel in offensively, which is why the odds are where they are. Penix has been struggling by his Heisman contending standards lately, but they’ve managed to pull out close matchups with Stanford, USC, and Utah over the last three weeks.
This matchup is the 6th consecutive TOUGH test for the Huskies, who beat both Oregon and Arizona State by just one score each before their last three contests. Going up against Oregon State after Utah just softened you up is never something I’d want for my team, especially one who struggles to defend the run. Penix and his elite receiving corps will make huge plays and this game will be close, but I think the Beavers churn some clock in this matchup to keep Penix off the field and it results in a lower scoring affair than most think, somewhere around 27-24. Give me the under.
Pick: u62.5 -110
Oklahoma State @ Houston (-7, o/u 59.5)
Much like the red flags that arose when looking at the Oregon State spread, we saw a similar (yet different) situation last week when the Cowboys were short favorites against then 1-5 in-conference UCF. The week prior, the Cowboys had their coming out party beating the Sooners at home, and just as people believed in them they fell on their face in embarrassing fashion. Now, they look for a chance to rebound against 4-6 (2-5 in Big 12) Houston with a chance to play in the championship still very much on the line.
I spoke briefly above about how elite Damien Martinez is for the Beavers, reaching the century mark on the ground through ten games, but he’s not going to win the Doak Walker if Ollie Gordon II stays healthy. Gordon now has 1,250 yards on the ground with 12 TDs and they face one of the worst rushing defenses in the conference in Houston, allowing 164.7 yards on the ground per game. To compliment that, PFF grades their pass coverages as worst in the Big 12.
If there’s ever a team to rebound against within the conference, it’s Houston right now. There was hunger in the Texas game, but that’s been nearly a month ago and since they’ve been lethargic. Shutout 41-0 to Kansas State before barely beating the horrific Baylor Bears, they managed to lose to then 2-7 Cincinnati 24-14 at home. Expect Mike Gundy and his staff to rip into his team and get them ready for another road test, blowing Houston out of the water.
Pick: Oklahoma State -7 (-105)
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