Week 15 Best Bets and Analysis

Week 15 Best Bets and Analysis

Well well well, it’s been an interesting week for me as I’ve been traveling a bunch these past two weeks. Sadly I have not had time to update the public betting trends this week, so this is going to be an article with just my picks.

We will be back to normal tomorrow and this week, but for the first time in my history of putting out content, we have a week with limited data. 

Hopefully, I’m still able to get back on track, as I’ve had a few rough days over these past few weeks.

Sadly I got bit on the line in the Saturday Vikings game and lost by a point on my Saturday total, though. There are lots of games left, and I love the slate today. I enter today 0-1-1 in Week 15.

As always, you can check out the podcast on YouTube and Spotify, but these links lead to last weeks video/podcast.

With that out of the way, it’s time to get into this week’s best bets and analysis. Here you will find the bets that I place every week and some discussion on why I am taking most of them. We’re not trying to be those Twitter handicappers that scream max play at you, we want you to trust us. Don’t forget you can always find my recaps of the weeks here as well – detailing where things went wrong and how I did. Last week was not the worst, but a step in the right direction as I went 3-4.

It’s already week 15 and the games and data are beginning to stack up. We have all of last year to help influence our picks for this year and with the influx of bettors entering the market (evidenced by the bet totals last week); the sky’s the limit for where we can take our information and bets. 

Deej Record from Week 14: 

  • Bets: 2-3
  • Leans: 2-3

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Week 15 NFL Best Bets and Analysis

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers (-3.5), Total 41.5

A team I have been looking to fade over the past few weeks is certainly the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs are the best of the worst division in the NFL, and that is not saying much. The NFC South is 11-25 ATS against non-NFC South teams, which will heavily benefit the Packers in this one. As of late, however, the Bucs have been playing very good defense, which has led to them topping the division through 14 weeks. The defense is specifically good against the run, whereas the Packers themselves are very injured. AJ Dillon is officially out with a broken thumb and Aaron Jones will likely be limited in the game today. Obviously, this indicates the Packers are going to look to the air, but despite the recent Jordan Love success, they have been fairly inconsistent in the air. As for the Bucs, I think they are just slow and inefficient on the road. Road unders with Bowles as a coach are 30-18. Baker cannot do anything unless he gets the ball to Mike Evans, and I expect LaFleur to have a game plan for that. And finally, the Bucs run game has been lackluster at best this whole season. Wind totals are creeping up to 15 mph and this will be a cold one in Lambeau. The public loves this over with sharps slamming the under, it’s an under start for me today. 

The Play:  Under 41.5 -108 (1u)

New York Giants vs New Orleans Saints (-5.5), Total 34

The state of the NFL right now is completely crazy as I’m sitting here analyzing a matchup with Tommy DeVito as a relevant NFL quarterback. However, I like the Giants in this spot today. In many recent articles, I focus on teams that don’t deserve to be favored by a certain amount of points. The Saints absolutely fall into that category today as near 6-point favorites off a massive win to the Panthers where the score did not quite tell the story. The Saints are 1-3 in their last 4 and are part of the poor NFC South ATS trend I mentioned above. Last week there was a strong indication that Daboll understood DeVito could use his legs to sustain drives, and I expect that to be a big factor in the Giants keeping it close in New Orleans today. Injury-wise, Carr will be without Olave for this one while the Giants are getting Darren Waller back. That’s another advantage to the Giants here. The public is all on the DeVito train, and the sharps and money actually agree with them. Obviously, the public has had a great year through 14 weeks, so what’s stopping them from continuing their strong run? It takes some guts to back this Giants’ offense, however, their strong defense of late and the Derek Carr-led offense should allow them to keep it close. 

The Play: Giants +6  -110 (1u)

Dallas Cowboys vs Buffalo Bills (-1.5), Total 48.5

In what is shaping up to be the best game of the day, we have the red-hot Cowboys entering Buffalo to face a desperate Josh Allen and Bills team. First things first, the weather is expected to play a role in Buffalo this evening. It’ll be cold, rainy, and windy, and given the Cowboys play in a dome, I think that benefits the Bills here. As for actual reasonings to like the Bills in this one, the Cowboys average nearly 16 points worse on the road than they do playing in JerryWorld. After beating the Eagles in Dallas, the Cowboys are at their peak of the season. The Bills have much more to prove to ensure they can even get into the playoffs. After a very rough middle patch of the season, the Bills’ defense is improving week over week as they get slightly healthier. McDermott has finally made the necessary adjustments to get them back to being competitive against everyone. I feel this is a tough situation for Dallas off a massive win against a desperate team on the road. If the weather holds out we could have an incredibly entertaining shootout on our hands, but I’m backing Allen and the Bills to find a way to get it done. There is some public love here, but the sharps love it too – so I’m all in on Buffalo. 

The Play: Bills -2 -110 (1u)

Plays without a writeup:

  • Bears +8.5/Panthers +9 Sharp diff. strong sides
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This is an article written by DJ Bianco

DJ Bianco Author for Happy Hour Sports at the Colosseum in Rome

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